Summer’s return? Here’s the latest COVID-19 projections for SC and the Myrtle Beach area
The Myrtle Beach area could soon see daily coronavirus case numbers similar to summer patterns when the region was called a “petri-dish” for the pandemic.
Statewide, the number of COVID-19 deaths is also expected to continue as people travel and get together for the holidays.
In South Carolina, more than 191,000 COVID-19 cases have been confirmed since the pandemic started in mid-March. Nearly 4,000 people have died from the virus. In Horry County, there have been 12,862 cases and 223 deaths as of Friday.
On Thursday, Gov. Henry McMaster urged South Carolinians to stay safe and get a COVID-19 test before Thanksgiving.
Holiday season could lead to a massive increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, local and national experts say. The latest projections by the PolicyLab at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia show that in December, Horry County could see up to 250 cases a data if current trends continue.
Projections show a steady increase of Horry County cases throughout December, peaking at the end of the year.
The group uses current trend data, social distance practices and other data to create its projections.
At the start of July, the Myrtle Beach area saw hundreds of cases each day, with some days seeing more than 200 new infections. The highest daily total was 358 new cases on July 4.
At the peak of summer tourist season along the Grand Strand, national news outlets focused on the outbreaks in Myrtle Beach. Several governors also warned their state residents about travel to Horry County or required quarantines for people who visited South Carolina.
Locals hospitals prepare
Leaders at a few local hospitals say they expect to see cases increase in the Myrtle Beach area as the holidays arrive.
“We are anticipating a bump up,” said Dr. Gerald Harmon, vice president of medical affairs at Tidelands Hospital.
Currently, Tidelands’ two hospitals have a slight decrease in COVID-19 patients compared to recent weeks. The hospitals have 12 patients that have tested positive and another four suspected cases. The hospitals’ occupancy rates are between 90% and 95%.
While Harmon said that is above the mid-70% that Tidelands typically sees this time of the years, it’s below recent weeks where occupancy was over 100%.
Harmon said Tidelands echoed guidelines issued by the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control and the federal Centers for Disease Control as people prepare for the holiday. That includes celebrating with only people in your household and to limit travel.
When people travel, it increases the chance of spreading and contracting the virus, Harmon said. If people have to travel, Harmon said, the recommendations continue to be avoiding large crowds, wearing masks and using hand sanitizer.
But, there are a couple of new protocols to keep in mind, Harmon said. One is for people to think about having spares of their supplies. For example, if someone sneezes into their mask, that covering is contaminated and should be changed. That is why people should carry extra masks.
Health officials also recommend that everyone get vaccinated to protect against traditional flu strains.
“If you are going to travel get a flu shot,” Harmon said.
At Conway Medical Center, there has been a stable number of COVID patients. Chief Medical Officer Paul Richardson said they have anywhere between 12 and 18 COVID patients each day. That is higher than several weeks ago when the figure was in single digits. But, much less than the height of summer that saw 40 patients a day.
Like Harmon, Richardson also expects the area to see an increase in daily cases. He noted there was a spike after other holidays as people gathered, especially with those they might only see a handful of times a year.
If locals take common-sense measures, Richardson said the amount of the increase can be lowered.
“Can we blunt that?” Richardson rhetorically asked. “Absolutely. Absolutely without a doubt.”
The common-sense tasks include washing hands and practicing social distancing. It also means wearing a mask, despite what some people claim, Richardson said, clearly frustrated with those who don’t wear facial coverings.
“We’ve got to be vigilant,” he said.
South Carolina Trends
Horry County’s projections come as the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington continues to forecast an increase in cases and deaths for South Carolina and the U.S.
The widely-cited group states South Carolina could see nearly 4,700 total deaths by the end of the year. If current trends continue, that total could reach 5,876 by March 1.
If mandates designed to slow COVID-19’s spread are eased, the projection for South Carolina deaths by March 1 jumps to 5,910. A universal mask mandate sees the projections drop to just over 5,000 deaths.
The University of Washington group also projects daily cases to go from 2,050 in late November to over 3,000 by the New Year. If a universal mask mandate is implemented, the new daily case projection drops to 1,194.
The projections show an increase in new daily cases through February until a leveling and a slight decrease in March.
