Horry County soon could see 1,000 COVID-19 cases a day, making it tops in the state
The Myrtle Beach area could see more than 1,000 new coronavirus cases a day — and it might happen by the end of the month.
“The less we are willing to sacrifice to our new normal,” said David Rubin, director of the PolicyLab at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, “the more we sacrifice our freedom.”
If current social distancing practices continue, the area is expected to cross a daily total of 1,000 new cases on July 30, according to the PolicyLab’s latest forecast. No other South Carolina county is projected to have more than 800 daily cases.
The research group analyzed coronavirus case data for 500 counties across the country, including Horry County and 10 others in South Carolina. The projections consider several factors, including the ongoing pattern of daily cases, weather and assumes current social distancing practices will continue.
To put the 1,000 cases into context: It wasn’t until June 19 that the entire state in South Carolina reported 1,000 new cases in a given day. It took Horry County about three months — March 15 to June 13 — from the confirmation of its first COVID-19 case to reach 1,000 cumulative cases.
Soon, that could become a daily reality.
Horry County’s population is roughly 320,000, according to the census. So if 1,000 new cases are confirmed a day, that would mean .3% of the entire county will test positive each day.
South Carolina Department of Environment and Health Control officials did not respond to questions on whether the county can test for 1,000 new cases every day.
The state currently has a 20% positive test rate, meaning one in five tests are returning positive for COVID-19. For the Myrtle Beach area to have 1,000 new daily cases, health officials would need to test 5,000 people every day.
The four-figure projections come as Horry County averaged 170 new cases a day for the past month. There have been several days where the Myrtle Beach area has seen more than 200 cases on a particular day.
DHEC officials say Horry County hospital beds are 82.6 percent occupied. There are currently 556 beds in use and 111 beds available for patients.
Stopping the rise
The Myrtle Beach area had few cases at the start of the pandemic in March and it continued that way through much of April as many businesses were closed.
“For most of March and April, we locked down before there was a chance to seed this area,” Rubin said.
Then the area started to reopen and in mid-May, and Myrtle Beach area hotels were able to start taking new reservations. About two weeks after the reopenings and Memorial Day weekend, the area started to see its cases explode.
But it was not alone: Sun Belt states like Florida, Texas and Arizona have been setting records for new cases almost daily. California has all but shut down bars, restaurants and retail once again.
Part of the model’s purpose is to allow leaders to see what is on the horizon so they can make policy changes, Rubin said. For South Carolina, that could include wearing masks and some level of social-distancing, such as limiting the number of people allowed to gather in one space.
The next few weeks are critical for the area as places prepare to open schools. Without changes, South Carolina could be forced to close schools like other areas. The HCS board Monday night voted to delay the opening of schools three weeks to Sept. 8.
While some people have dismissed some of the health recommendations, Rubin noted that by being more restrictive now, it means fewer restrictions in the future.
There are also some calls to keep the at-risk populations separate from the younger, healthier groups. But, Rubin said other countries tried that plan and there was too much intermingling between the two groups.
“It just doesn’t work in reality,” he said.
This story was originally published July 14, 2020 at 10:03 AM.
