Horry County’s COVID-19 case spike mirrors tourism increase. Is it going to get worse?
As Myrtle Beach welcomed more tourists to the area, its jump in daily COVID-19 cases has coincided with the opening of hotels and one of the biggest summer weekends of the year.
Forecasters say there are no signs that the number of new cases reported each day in Horry County will slow down.
“Historically, South Carolinians have willingly made sacrifices for the benefit of all. Stopping the spread of this disease will not be easy,” South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control Epidemiologist Linda Bell said in a Thursday statement.
Horry County set, and beat, its record for the number of new coronavirus cases on a few different days in the past week. The current, high-water mark of 143 new cases was announced on Thursday.
“We really have to take this seriously. We can’t let it spread out of control,” said Jeffery Morris, a researcher with the PolicyLab at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia that looked at COVID-19 case trends across the country.
The Myrtle Beach area saw only a handful of new cases reported each day in March and April as the government-mandated the closure of beach accesses, hotels and restaurants. But, as they were allowed to reopen, Myrtle Beach and the rest of South Carolina have seen a dramatic uptick in the number of cases.
While more people have been screened in recent weeks as South Carolina ramps up testing efforts, the state has also seen a three-fold jump in the number of tests coming back positive.
An uptick in Horry County
From its first coronavirus case on March 15 through the end of May, Horry County saw only a handful of new cases each day. There was one day - May 22 - where the count had more than 20 new cases.
The numbers were low as Gov. Henry McMaster and local officials ordered the closure of hotels, beach accesses and dining rooms across the state. The daily counts remained relatively low as hotels and beach accesses were allowed to reopen in late April. On May 15, Myrtle Beach allowed hotels to take new reservations for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic started. Around that same time, McMaster allowed restaurants to reopen.
Since then, Horry County has seen exponential growth in the number of cases reported each day.
On June 1, there were 22 new cases in Horry County.
On June 5, it was 30.
On June 10, it was 83.
By June 17, it was 120.
The uptick came two weeks after Myrtle Beach officials allowed hotels to start taking new reservations and about a week after Memorial Day - May 25. Health experts say when looking at case data, the conditions two weeks prior to a particular date should be considered. It takes two to 14 days for someone to develop symptoms after becoming infected with COVID-19.
Horry County’s increase also led DHEC to label the area a COVID-19 “hot spot.”
Morris noted the Horry County increase coincides with Memorial Day weekend, though crowded beaches might not be to blame.
“Outdoor spread is not so much an issue,” he said.
The PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia researched coronavirus case data for 500 counties across the country, including Horry County and 10 others in South Carolina. Morris said they also looked at the number of new cases reported in areas that saw protests in the wake of George’s Floyd’s death. They found little evidence of an uptick in those areas, which lead to the belief the disease might not spread as well in open settings.
The disease is most likely to spread in crowded, indoor areas where few people wear a mask, Morris said.
People might not catch the virus if they are lounging on the beach, but they then head inside to restaurants and bars, he said. Health officials across the state have pleaded for people to follow guidelines to help stop the spread, and several Myrtle Beach area restaurants closed after staff tested positive for coronavirus.
The Myrtle Beach Area Chamber of Commerce released a statement on Thursday about efforts to help stop COVID-19’s spread. That included a responsibility campaign asking visitors to enjoy the community safely.
“Our beautiful beaches and many of our businesses are open and safe to visit. We just respectfully ask everyone, local residents and our visitors to proactively do their part to help limit the spread of the virus. Some of the health guidelines may be inconvenient, but they will save lives and help ensure the long-term recovery of the Grand Strand,” the Chamber said in the statement.
Horry County’s increase in daily counts of new daily cases also comes as the state is doing more coronavirus testing, including several free, large-scale testing events in the area. While the testing intensified, the percentage of people testing positive in the tests has also seen a significant jump. According to DHEC data, on June 4, 5.7 percent of coronavirus test came back as positive. That figure was up to 14.4 percent on June 17.
Morris said when looking at case data, it’s also important to look at how many people are hospitalized. He added hospitalization usually happens a week after a case is first reported as people wait for the symptoms to get worse before going to the hospital.
Currently, Horry County has 81.4 percent of its hospital beds occupied, according to DHEC data.
While that figure is higher than many other South Carolina counties, local officials say it’s common for the Myrtle Beach area to see high occupancy rates during typical summer months.
Other areas see uptick too
Some of the other most populated areas in South Carolina - Greenville, Charleston and Richland counties - have seen an increase in their daily case count.
Greenville had few cases in March, but then in April and May routinely saw double-digit new cases on a particular day. By the end of May, the county had 89 new daily cases. On June 8, then saw at least 100 new cases each day between June 10-14, according to DHEC data. It has seen a drop in cases in the last few days, though there are still at least 70 new cases reported per day.
Charleston and Richland counties have also seen an increase in daily cases in June, though neither had a triple-digit day.
Charleston had 76 new cases reported on June 15, but for most of June has averaged roughly 40 new cases each day in June. Richland had 80 new cases on June 9 and averaged about 50 new cases a day this month.
Worse in the weeks ahead?
The PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia recently released forecasts for how many new cases some counties can expect to see each day for the next month.
Horry County’s projections show exponential growth, topping out at 185 new daily cases projected on July 15. Morris explained the projections consider several factors, including the ongoing pattern of daily cases, weather and assumes current social distancing practices will continue.
The social distancing practices were calculated using cell phone tracking data. The group saw Horry County had a dramatic drop in visits to non-essential businesses in the height of the closures for the pandemic. The PolicyLab estimated a 54 percent drop in visits compared to before the pandemic. Those visits before the outbreak would have happened during slow, non-tourism months for the Myrtle Beach area.
Since the reopening, Horry County has seen a 69 percent increase in visits to non-essential businesses than before the pandemic, the PolicyLab found.
That led to the projections that show massive growth in the number of new cases Horry County can expect each day. Other South Carolina counties also projected to see continued growth in the number of new cases, though many aren’t as steep as the Myrtle Beach area.
The social distancing analysis led the lab to identify four states as hot spots for case growth - Florida, Texas, Arizona and South Carolina.
“Doing something to get it under control is super urgent,” Morris said.
Solution?
Morris said there are two extremes in the reactions to coronavirus. Some say it’s no big deal, and some are so fearful they won’t leave their home. He said there has to be a happy medium between the groups.
Wearing a mask is likely the best preventive step to slow the virus’ spread, Morris said. He added it might not stop the growth in new cases, but it might lead to a leveling off instead of the exponential growth seen in places like Horry County.
“It is likely that would suppress the growth,” he said. “That might be enough.”
The four states the PolicyLab labeled as hot spots haven’t seen many people following the mask-wearing recommendations. That is true in Myrtle Beach, where less than half of people were seen with masks during a recent count in various Horry County locations.
Morris’ comments on mask wearing echo Bell’s recent pleas for South Carolinians to wear face coverings in public.
“Every one of us has a role to play in stopping COVID-19. This virus does not spread on its own,” Bell said. “It’s spread around our state by infected people who carry it wherever they go – their work, the supermarket, the post office, a friend’s house. By not following public health precautions, many are putting all at risk.
“It is essential that each of us, every day, wear a mask in public and stay physically distanced from others.”
Some have suggested to again force the closure of businesses to slow the spread, but Morris said the lockdowns have wide-ranging impacts. He said areas want to avoid another round of closures, while also avoiding a jump in new cases.
“The key to safe openings,” Morris said, “is getting people to go along with the guidelines.”
