Why this NBA Finals will be highly competitive but won’t look like it in the record books

It seems like all of a sudden people are talking up the Toronto Raptors.

Is it all to drum up enthusiasm for an NBA Finals that at the beginning of the season was predicted to easily be won the by dinosaurs’ opponent, the Golden State Warriors? Or have injuries to Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins combined with Kawhi Leonard playing like Superman convinced people that this could be a good series?

Well, I think it’s probably some of both — with the former probably playing a bigger role than the latter.

Regardless, I am of the belief that it will be a competitive series and, by saying that, I’m not predicting that it will go seven games. Instead, I think the series — no matter how many games — will be decided by close scores.

My reasons for that prediction have little do with potential Leonard heroics — though they wouldn’t hurt — and nothing to do with whether or not Durant and/or Cousins play. It has everything to do with the type of team the Raptors are.

In recent years, I’ve exhaustively tried to tell people that teams like Houston and Portland were unlikely to knock off the Warriors. Quite simply: You can’t beat them at their own game.

Shooting 40 3-pointers in a game isn’t — and hasn’t — worked against them. Having a well-balanced roster has before. The LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers are the only team that’s knocked them off in the playoffs since 2015. Only two other teams — yes, the Rockets were one last year — have seriously challenged them.

The other was Durant’s former team, the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2016, when they led Golden State 3-1 in the Western Conference finals before squandering the series. As a Thunder fan, I watched closely — and in agony — as they came up short. But I also gained insight as to what makes the Warriors vulnerable.

You have to be physical on the boards and you have to defend well. The only two weaknesses this team has had over the years is in rebounding and the fact its players get loose with the ball. Turnovers and offensive rebounds that create more possessions are what equalize the 3-point barrage Golden State is known for.

Toronto has the length — with players like Marc Gasol, Leonard and Pascal Siakam — to cause similar trouble. Oh yeah, they also have Serge Ibaka, who was a member of that Thunder team. The Raptors also have guys who can hit 3s and, unlike Milwaukee, their best player, Leonard, can consistently hit 3s.

I’ll admit I picked Boston at the beginning of the year and it became a train wreck. But I did consistently say that I didn’t think the Bucks would make it to the Finals because, as good as Giannis Antetokounmpo is, you can force the ball out of his hands by packing the paint since he’s not yet consistent enough with his outside shooting.

The Greek Freak reminds me a lot of LeBron James in his early years, when teams like the Celtics and San Antonio Spurs gave him trouble by daring him to shoot 3s or forcing the ball out of his hands and gambling on his teammates’ ability to knock down outside shots. I think Giannis will certainly improve on that, but for now I think it played into Milwaukee coming up short.

As for Toronto, it also has home-court advantage, which it will need to capitalize on. The Raptors NEED to win the first two games. I think if Toronto splits the first two at home, it will be in trouble.

Now, I’m not going be like others who are saying the Raptors have the best chance at knocking off the Warriors in attempt to ramp up excitement for the series. But I will admit they’ve got a shot.

Nonetheless, I’m predicting the Warriors in five games — five with minimal margins of victory.