Here are three things Duke has to do to beat UNC basketball Saturday
It’s a rare occurrence but Duke and North Carolina have more questions than answers this basketball season.
Why are they losing so many games? Why might they miss the NCAA tournament?
Despite all that, the most important question to both fan bases this week is, how will Saturday’s rivalry game turn in their favor?
From Duke’s point of view, the Blue Devils showed less than a week ago how good they can play. A dominating 79-53 win over Clemson looked like a harbinger of better days ahead.
That was until Monday night when the Blue Devils regressed and lost 77-75 at Miami, the team with the ACC’s worst NET rating.
So Duke (7-6, 5-4 ACC) needs a win Saturday not only to have the satisfaction of beating the rival Tar Heels, but to stay above the .500 mark.
Here’s a look at three things the Blue Devils must do Saturday night at Cameron Indoor Stadium to accomplish that feat:
1. Get to the free-throw line
Not a great perimeter shooting team, Duke needs to find other ways to get easy points. One way is to create turnovers and fast-break situations (more on that below). The other is to earn fouls and get to the free-throw line.
The Blue Devils have only earned 14.7% of their points from the free-throw line this season, according to KenPom.com. That leaves Duke No. 315 nationally in that category. The national average is 18.4%.
Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski stressed this point last week, saying his team needed to be stronger and more aggressive with the ball to draw fouls. It worked against Clemson as Duke attempted 17 free throws to Clemson’s 11.
Against Miami, the teams each attempted 13 free throws. Duke made 12, while Miami hit eight. So the trend is good on this front for the Blue Devils.
2. Pressure UNC’s guards into mistakes
Both the Blue Devils and Tar Heels have turned the ball over far more than they’ve wanted to this season.
Duke has turned the ball over on 18.9% of its possessions, while UNC is even worse at 21.6%.
The Blue Devils are good defensively when it comes to stealing the ball. They’ve done so on 11.6% of the opponents’ possessions. That’s No. 30 nationally and above the national average of 9.1%.
UNC has allowed the opponent to record a steal on 11.7% of their possessions. That’s among the worst teams in the country at No. 328 nationally.
Clearly, there’s a chance for Duke to get some transition baskets here. Senior guard Jordan Goldwire averages 2.4 steals per game for Duke, No. 2 in the ACC.
3. Play with an edge
This is an all-encompassing statement that applies to the entire game for the Blue Devils.
To get steals, they need to be tough and instinctive. To earn fouls and free throws, they need to be strong with the ball through contact. That also goes for avoiding turnovers. Duke gave the ball away easily too many times at Miami, causing coach Mike Krzyzewski to describe the team’s play as “soft.”
The Blue Devils, from Goldwire to freshmen guards DJ Steward and Jeremy Roach and sophomore swingman Wendell Moore, must force UNC freshmen Caleb Love and RJ Davis into mistakes on both ends.
UNC has the superior interior players. Duke has to make its hay with hard-nosed play on the perimeter.
UNC at Duke
When: 6 p.m., Saturday
Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham
Watch: ESPN
This story was originally published February 4, 2021 at 2:21 PM with the headline "Here are three things Duke has to do to beat UNC basketball Saturday."