What does Duke need to do to make the NCAA tournament? It can start by beating UNC.
The NCAA set 13 as the minimum number of games a team needed to play during this pandemic-altered season to qualify for its basketball tournament in March.
Duke reached that number Monday while simultaneously damaging its chances to make the tournament field.
The Blue Devils had taken a step forward toward piecing together a solid NCAA tournament at-large bid resume while beating Clemson, 79-53, last Saturday.
As has been the case this season, the Blue Devils followed that up with a major step backward two days later, losing 77-75 at Miami.
Duke’s dominant win over Clemson at home showed how well the Blue Devils (7-6, 5-4 ACC) can play. The loss at Miami displayed the opposite as the Blue Devils looked like a young team incapable of bringing the same level of consistent play to every game.
Selection Sunday is five weeks from Sunday. Duke has time to win and prove it belongs in the NCAA tournament but treading water, like it did in the last two games, won’t get it done.
Here’s a look at where Duke stands and what the Blue Devils need to do as they strive to make the field, which Duke has done for every tournament since last missing one in 1995.
Computer rankings
As of Wednesday, Duke sits at No. 66 in the NET ratings. That’s up 14 points from a week ago but still ninth among ACC schools. Miami, which just beat the Blue Devils, is last among ACC teams at No. 151.
Ken Pomeroy’s ratings system, using tempo-free statistics to analyze a team’s efficiency, thinks much more highly of the Blue Devils. KenPom has Duke at No. 32 in the country. That’s third-best in the ACC, behind only Virginia and Florida State.
Quadrants
Even with the loss to Miami, Duke gained its first quadrant 1 win thanks to Notre Dame’s stronger play of late.
Duke beat the Irish 75-65 at Notre Dame back on Dec. 16. Last week, that win counted among Duke’s Quadrant 2 results because Notre Dame’s NET rating was worse than No. 75. But the Irish posted wins over Pittsburgh and Wake Forest since then, boosting them to No. 70 in the NET.
Since Quadrant 1 results include road games against teams ranked Nos. 1-75, Duke is now 1-3 in that top quadrant. It’s not great — its not even good — but it’s a start.
The bad news is Duke is now 2-2 in Quadrant 3 games, having lost at home to No. 92 Michigan State and now on the road to No. 151 Miami. That record is a big knock against Duke’s case.
Bracketology
Looking at the compilation of projected brackets at bracketmatrix.com, Duke appears on 15 of the 91 available brackets posted on Wednesday. The Blue Devils’ average seed is 11.47.
Now, some of the brackets haven’t been updated since Duke’s loss to Miami. But 34 of them were updated Tuesday and Duke somehow still appears on two of them.
What’s next
Saturday’s home game with North Carolina (both teams unranked) is huge not only because of the intense rivalry but because the Blue Devils have to start posting wins in a hurry. Is Duke the team that blasted Clemson or the one that fumbled and stumbled around in losing at Miami?
The UNC game starts a crucial week where Duke has three Quadrant 2 win opportunities. After playing UNC (No. 56 in the NET), Duke plays No 70 Notre Dame at home before facing N.C. State (No. 87 in NET) in Raleigh on Feb. 13.
The Blue Devils need to win all three, but at least two would help.
North Carolina at Duke
When: 6 p.m., Saturday
Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham
Watch: ESPN
This story was originally published February 3, 2021 at 2:06 PM with the headline "What does Duke need to do to make the NCAA tournament? It can start by beating UNC.."