‘Will it be tough and ugly? Yes’: Horry leaders prepare for hurricane-coronavirus mix
When Hurricane Florence hit the Grand Strand in 2018, thousands sought shelter from the storm and flood in local public school buildings.
Dozens of government employees, National Guard members and journalists slept on floors in close contact at the emergency operations center in Conway.
With the 2020 hurricane season predicted to bring an above-average number of storms, all of this will need to change in the era of the novel coronavirus COVID-19.
Social distancing makes sleeping and working in close quarters a dangerous situation. Maintaining a 6-foot distance becomes harder when thousands of people need to evacuate in a short period of time and government operations cannot be done remotely.
Local emergency leaders now have to plan for the worst all while dealing with a pandemic: what an evacuation order might look for Horry County’s coast; how the Red Cross will house people seeking shelter; and how critical services can safely continue if a loss of electricity makes remote working impossible.
Preparing for the 2020 hurricane season is uncharted territory for Horry County’s public safety leader Randy Webster, even after decades of working in Horry County’s emergency response teams.
“There are so many more challenges this year than I’ve ever had to face because it’s still evolving,” Webster said. “ … My biggest problem is we don’t have any best practices to look at it.”
The people quoted in this story are talking generally about planning for a 2020 hurricane season where shelters, emergency operations and the long-term recovery process could look drastically differently. Even if businesses start to re-open, social distancing guidelines could still be enforced.
“It’s even more important for this year for the community to be hurricane aware and to understand these limitations. Last-minute choices likely are not the best idea,” Webster said. “I don’t know what to expect, but I don’t think social distancing will end any time soon.”
What could the season look like?
Hurricane season doesn’t start until June 1, but National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Steven Pfaff said preparing for the season is a year-long exercise.
Unless a vaccine is approved and implemented during the summer or some other unforeseen change occurs, social distancing will still probably be practiced in some shape even months from now.
Typically for Horry County, September is the worst part of the season, a time when the Atlantic Ocean is warm and conditions are right for storms. It is less likely for a storm to hit before August, according to a list of historical hurricanes in the United States.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration releases its official hurricane forecast in May. Colorado State University’s prediction calls for above-average storm activity in the coming season.
Sea surface temperature trends, rain patterns in the Sahel region of Africa, the El Nino/La Nina phases and other factors are looked at when making predictions. While the data is still being crunched into forecasting models, a lot of the conditions Pfaff sees are favorable for an active hurricane season.
“It’s a lot of things that are looked at, which is why it’s hard to make these predictions with skill,” Pfaff said. “If you have warmer oceans, you have the ability to support hurricanes. That’s their fuel.”
Pfaff, who works in the NWS’ Wilmington office, said the area is in a risky spot for hurricanes to hit. Even if the models predict an inactive hurricane season, there isn’t an excuse for the NWS, the government and citizens to not do what they can to be ready for a major storm.
“The pattern that pushes these hurricanes puts us in a vulnerable spot,” Pfaff said. “If the forecast called for five named storms or 20 named storms, personally, I would prepare the same way. … We need to maintain a high level of preparedness.”
Finding safety during a storm
If you’re prepared for a hurricane, you’re prepared for most disasters. A hurricane survival kit includes important documents, enough food to survive for two weeks, charging devices and having a place to go if conditions require evacuation.
As you’re planning for the hurricane season this year, keep in mind that the coronavirus pandemic will likely be ongoing or hit a second wave.
“For the community as a whole, what they need to consider right now is the economy we are in and not knowing how long this COVID issue will last with the new cultural change,” Webster said. “It’s going to be more challenging if there is an evacuation order, and they’re in an evacuation zone. They need to think about what that looks like now.”
People planning to evacuate on their own to an inland relative’s house or hotel need to make sure their safe place will be open to them if they need it. In addition, stocking up on groceries all at once can be a financial burden, so consider stocking up bit by bit.
The main problem, however, is figuring out how storm shelters will work. Typically when someone arrives at a hurricane shelter they are checked in at the door of a local Horry County school or recreation center. They need to bring their own bedding to sleep on floors next to strangers, meals are served in a common area and some shelters have movies.
But that old model wasn’t designed for social distancing. The locations, occupancy levels and operations of shelters could change.
If there is a dangerous storm, the American Red Cross knows people will need a place to go and there will be shelters for those who need them. Eastern South Carolina Red Cross Director Amy Brauner’s team is beginning conversations with the county and other agencies to decide what those shelters might look like.
Hotels, university dorm rooms, campground cabins or simply lower occupancy shelters could be alternatives to the traditional shelters.
“Our state and local officials will let us know what to open first,” Brauner said.
For a hurricane shelter to be safe, it needs to have a building strong enough to withstand sustained, hurricane-force winds. Depending on the hurricane level, fewer buildings will be suitable.
Some people may have to be bused out of the area to safer buildings inland. More logistical work needs to be done to determine how many people can safely fit into a bus while maintaining an appropriate distance, Webster said.
Once the shelter is open, officials will look to prevent someone with the virus getting into a shelter. Temperatures will probably be taken before anyone enters, even if they have already been admitted and left for whatever reason. If someone is displaying symptoms or a fever, they will be moved to a quarantined shelter.
A lot of the shelter work relies on volunteers to donate time and money to help register, feed and house those seeking safety from a storm. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the Red Cross is receiving an outpouring of financial support and people ready to volunteer if a hurricane does hit.
“We always know when disaster comes, especially major disasters, our community comes together and become Red Cross volunteers,” Brauner said.
How will the government respond
Planning for the worst now will ensure everyone has access to safety if they need it.
During a hurricane, county emergency services operate around the clock in the M.L. Brown Building in Conway where the emergency operations center is housed. It’s where decisions on public safety staffing, disaster response and early recovery efforts are made.
Currently, the county can work remotely from home and still maintain service. Webster knows, however, that hurricanes can cause widespread power outages and critical services cannot stop just because there is no electricity.
The EOC has sufficient generators that can keep public safety functioning during a hurricane. Webster said the EOC will still need to be staffed in a hurricane in case of a power outage, and his staff is working on the details of how social distancing can be maintained.
After the storm hits, Webster isn’t too concerned about the immediate response to emergency calls. What worries him is the long-term recovery.
Typically after a hurricane, volunteers pour into the area for weeks helping with recovery efforts. Financial assistance is set up, the National Guard can be sent in to assist local authorities, the president and governor visit and eventually the county gets reimbursed for its expenses.
With the entire nation dealing with the coronavirus crisis, the ongoing pandemic could make it where the county has to handle the recovery process on its own or with reduced help depending on federal budgets and the ability to travel.
“We understand that there may not be a lot of help coming because of COVID-19. Everyone is strapped right now,” Webster said. “Recovery may take longer.”
Even with limited outside help, Webster stressed Horry County residents should find hope in each other. He believes when push comes to shove, the residents here will do whatever it takes to make sure we get through it and that the community has what it needs.
After decades of helping lead Horry County through hurricanes, Webster said he has learned that this area is resilient and caring. He is glad he didn’t retire last year.
“It inspires me that I know the community will do well. Will it be tough and ugly? Yes. But I know it will come out good at the end of the day,” Webster said.
