Here’s why there might be no spike in COVID-19 cases with more Myrtle Beach area openings
When the Myrtle Beach area started to reopen beach access weeks ago, some believed the Grand Strand would see a surge in coronavirus cases — a prediction that hasn’t come true, yet.
“There’s many factors at play here that are going to make it difficult to assess whether a second spike has occurred,” said Lior Rennert, an assistant professor at Clemson University.
Restrictions designed to slow COVID-19 spread have eased over the past few weeks. S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster lifted a ban on public beach access on April 21, and Myrtle Beach followed about a week later. Hotels across the Grand Strand resumed business on May 1. As pictures rolled in of people packing local beaches — though many still practiced social distancing — social media filled with fret about a surge in the number of cases.
Health experts have said it could take two weeks to see any spike as that is how long it could take someone to develop symptoms, get tested and counted by health experts.
It’s been two weeks since some reopenings, and the Grand Strand has yet to see a significant jump in its daily case totals. Lennert is a biostatistics expert and outlined the possible reasons why Horry County hasn’t seen the so-called “second spike.” One important factor is the easing of restrictions happened before there was a decline in cases.
“Without having that relative baseline, it’s a bit harder to gauge,” he said.
The lack of a baseline makes it harder to see a surge. For example, if an area was having 10 new cases a day, it would have dropped to two with no reopenings. A “surge” of eight cases a day would make it seem like that area continually saw 10 cases a day and just experienced a plateau instead of a surge.
Basically, the surge would backfill the decrease and people wouldn’t notice if they only look at the daily data.
“You wouldn’t see that in the data because they are canceling each other out,” he said.
Since the beaches reopened, the daily increase in Horry County averaged 4..5 new cases. There hasn’t been a double-digit jump since April 17, well before reopenings started.
South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control Dr. Linda Bell said at a news conference last week, the state’s number of cases will depend on people taking precautionary measures, such as social distancing and wearing a mask.
“Those practices will frame what that curve looks like,” she said.
Rennert said it’s difficult to attribute any case increase to one policy decision. Any surge would need to happen over several days, not just a day here-and-there, he said.
When looking for a second spike, the number of people going out also needs to be taken into consideration, Rennert said. Locals might be hesitant to eat inside a restaurant and be around others. So the data might not reflect a jump as if everyone went out at the same time.
For Horry County, there is also the tourist conundrum. People who come from other areas might not get sick until they get home and would be counted in that state. Rennert said a spike from tourists visit would be seen if the visitors spend extended time interacting with locals, who then get sick and add to the county’s totals.
The virus has not gone away, Rennert said, and two main factors increase the risk — proximity and time. For people on the beach, they are probably spending minimal time around others — they might just walk by at a distance — so the risk decreases even if they are around a carrier.
Spending time in close quarters with an infected person is the greatest risk, Rennert said. “That is without question.”
