South Carolina’s projected date to ease COVID social distancing lags behind many states
As Myrtle Beach hotels and beaches reopen, and South Carolina lifts the work or home order, experts say the state’s date to possibly ease social distancing restrictions lags behind most of the country.
Experts at the University of Washington have created models for the number of COVID-19 deaths, hospital needs and other aspects. The models have been cited by health experts and are included on the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control’s website.
That model gives South Carolina a June 16 projected date for when safely relaxing social distancing because of coronavirus could happen. Social distancing after the COVID-19 outbreak might be possible with strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation and limiting gathering size of events, experts say.
South Carolina officials and health experts say there is no firm date when the restrictions could ease, and it could change as more data becomes available.
“Our data indicate our South Carolina Covid curve is beginning to level,” SC DHEC Epidemiologist Linda Bell said Friday.
Bell said public health data would drive the easing of restrictions. She also said it’s important for people to continue to protect themselves from the disease and to help reduce the spread.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington based the date for possible easing on when the state could see an infection rate of 1 case per 1 million people. Director Chris Murray said in a briefing that the projected dates are likely to change as there is more information about whether states see a dramatic or steady decline in cases.
“That will make a difference on whether it will be safe to relax social distancing,” he said.
The amount of testing states have will also impact when the date could be, Murray said. If a state has more testing, it might be able to handle more cases, therefore moving up the projected time. A second spike in cases could also change the projections.
South Carolina’s projected date is later than all but 16 states. To compare, North Carolina has a projected date of May 14. The latest state is North Dakota, with a date of July 16.
Myrtle Beach area hospital officials did not respond in time for this report and DHEC officials did not answer a question about why South Carolina ranks towards the bottom.
Many states with earlier projected dates, where it may be safe to ease social distancing, implemented stay-at-home orders earlier than South Carolina. Gov. Henry McMaster’s “work or home” went into effect on April 7 and ends on Monday.
But, not every state that locked down before South Carolina has an earlier projected date. Both Arizona and Florida instituted stay-at-home orders before South Carolina, but have projected dates later in the summer.
DHEC officials said modeling and projections change quickly and relaxing preventive measures too soon could lead to more positive cases.
“This is why we’re continuing to look for opportunities to increase testing across the state and to monitor statewide data to verify when we are on the downward slope of the peak,” DHEC officials said in a statement.
Even when the peak is reached, South Carolina officials say there will still be positive cases and deaths important.
This story was originally published May 4, 2020 at 5:30 AM.
