Carolina Panthers host San Francisco 49ers: What to expect from the Week 5 NFL matchup
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said this week he’s not disillusioned by the Carolina Panthers’ record.
“I see a team that could easily be 4-0,” Shanahan said on Wednesday. “There is only one game that they won the turnover battle in and they dominated that game. ... You see a team that is playing really good defense. They have some talent on offense. They have gotten in trouble turning it over, which has hurt them.”
Perhaps that is just coach speak, similar to how Patriots coach Bill Belichick sometimes glorifies New England’s upcoming opponents. Or maybe Shanahan is right.
The NFL is in a strange place through four weeks. Tom Brady said it best on Wednesday.
“I think there is a lot of bad football from what I watch,” Brady said. “I watched a lot of bad football. Yeah, poor quality of football is what I see.”
The sportsbooks in Las Vegas agree. Seventeen of the first 48 games this season went under their projected totals. NFL games are averaging 42 combined points per game. That is down four points from the 2021 average through four weeks. If scoring continues at this low rate, it will be the lowest full-season scoring total since 2006.
Think about how many NFL fan bases are comfortable with their quarterback situation.
Only one team in AFC East is 100% vested in its quarterback. The same can be said about the AFC South, NFC North and NFC West. Unless you cheer for the Chiefs, Bills, Chargers, Bengals, Ravens, Eagles, Cowboys, Cardinals, Packers, Browns or Buccaneers, then your team is unstable at quarterback.
This is a results-driven business, but as offenses readjust to two-high defensive shells and quarterbacks keep struggling, NFL decision-makers must accurately diagnose their team’s culture and decide whether it’s trending toward sustainability, or built on sand.
For example, the Falcons are 2-2 and beat the Browns last week while completing just seven passes. Myles Garrett did not play in that game due to injury. The Broncos are 2-3 after losing in overtime to the Colts on Thursday. Denver receiver K.J. Hamler threw a fit on the game’s final play when he did not get the ball.
Such outbursts haven’t occurred in Carolina — yet. Instead, after the Panthers’ 26-16 loss to Arizona, running back Christian McCaffrey put his arm around coach Matt Rhule as they walked off the field. His public display of support for Rhule continued on Wednesday when he spoke to media.
“I’m in the meetings. I know what’s being coached. Bad football’s not being coached. It’s up to us to go do it, though,” McCaffrey said. “As a leader on the team, it starts with me. It starts with all these guys. But we have to make the plays when our number is called. That’s not happening right now. We have extreme urgency to get it done.”
The Panthers’ offense is in a dire situation, and Carolina must display extreme urgency if it hopes to upset the 49ers. The Panthers are a 6.5-point home underdog, facing the NFL’s No. 1 defense.
Carolina is one more abysmal offensive performance away from an optical disaster, despite featuring one of the league’s top defenses and a locker room that still believes in itself.
Here are some key matchups that Carolina must exploit if it hopes to win Sunday.
Finding explosive plays
The Panthers’ offense ranks in the bottom fourth in nearly every meaningful statistic. To beat the 49ers, Carolina must generate explosive plays. Carolina is 30th in explosive plays with just 17, according to Pro Football Focus. The Eagles are No. 1 with 36. Cleveland and Green Bay are tied for second with 35.
Pro Football Focus considers a big play to be any rush of 10 yards or longer, and receptions of 20 yards or more. Carolina has nine big passes and eight big runs.
The Panthers should have more big plays. Last week, receiver DJ Moore would likely have scored if Rashard Higgins hadn’t fumbled a reverse handoff. Tight end Tommy Tremble dropped a 20-yard pitch-and-catch from quarterback Baker Mayfield in the first quarter that would’ve put Carolina in field-goal range.
Through four games, Tremble carries a 42.5 PFF grade. Fellow tight end Ian Thomas holds a 47.7 PFF grade. Both rank in the bottom five of 67 qualified tight ends.
Only the defending Super Bowl champion Rams and their Super Bowl LVI opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, rank lower than Carolina in big plays. Remember, it’s an interesting time in the NFL.
To hit explosive plays, Carolina must slow the 49ers’ monstrous pass rush.
The San Francisco 49ers rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. Shanahan and defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans deploy a monstrous defense predicated on effectively rushing the quarterback with four defenders and dropping seven players into coverage.
And it’s working. Edge rusher Nick Bosa leads the NFL with six sacks. The team has 15 sacks, seven of which came in a 24-9 beatdown of the Rams on Monday night. Bosa notched 14 pressures on quarterback Matt Stafford. The 49ers are allowing an NFL-low 3.8 yards per play.
To combat Bosa and company, the Panthers will have to leave a tight end or two in to help block. Expect Mayfield to try and throw a quick game, as well.
Early down efficiency
Carolina effectively throwing quick game means offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo would be calling passes on first and second down. Despite EPA (expected points added) metrics suggesting it is more efficient to throw on early downs, the Panthers are averaging 6.3 yards per carry-on first-down runs. Yet the team ranks 32nd in number of first-down carries.
Perhaps it’s time Carolina ignores analytical early down philosophies and instead runs its best player to start drives. Data suggests such a strategy would help the Panthers sustain drives, thus improving on its league-low 52 plays-per-game average.
Forcing third-and-long
The 49ers want to run the ball on early downs and then operate out of third-and-4 or shorter.
When quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo does throw, he is not going deep. Last week, 73% of Garoppolo’s 239 passing yards (174 yards) came after the catch, which was the highest mark in Week 4.
Running back Jeff Wilson and receiver Deebo Samuel drive San Francisco’s rushing attack. The 49ers are playing backups at both left and right tackle, which resulted in Garoppolo averaging 2.4 seconds per snap-to-release against the Rams and Aaron Donald.
Playing without safety Jeremy Chinn will hurt the Panthers’ run defense. The team put him on injured reserve this week with a hamstring injury. Free safety Xavier Woods is a game-time decision.
This game could be short in real time if both teams execute a run-first game plan.
This story was originally published October 9, 2022 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Carolina Panthers host San Francisco 49ers: What to expect from the Week 5 NFL matchup."
