Carolina Panthers may be changing their draft strategy after a week at the Senior Bowl
As the 2022 Senior Bowl concluded in Mobile, Alabama, over the weekend, four first-round scenarios emerged as the most likely options for the Panthers, considering their assortment of draft capital and pressing roster needs.
Option 1: Carolina holds the No. 6 pick in April’s NFL draft. The Panthers have glaring holes across their offensive line and would like to add a quarterback to challenge or supplant incumbent starter Sam Darnold. At No. 6, Carolina should have its pick of several top quarterbacks or offensive tackles.
Several NFL executives and scouts who spoke to The Observer for this story said the Panthers could have their choice of Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett or Liberty quarterback Malik Willis if either solidified themselves as “the guy” for Carolina. One executive said North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell belongs in the same tier as Pickett and Willis while others believe Pickett and Willis have separated themselves from their peers.
“There was a lot of confirmation of things that we thought about these players,” NFL Draft Network director of scouting Kyle Crabbs told The Observer. “Kenny Pickett certainly is the most well-developed to be starting quarterback early in his career. You know, he’s not going to wow you with his traits. But he does a lot of the little things really well.”
Crabbs said Willis has the most upside but may not make the most sense for the Panthers.
“Malik Willis really did the most to kind of affirm himself,” Crabbs said. “He is athletic as he clearly is. The ball came off his hand differently than everybody else. Those quarterbacks who find success early in their careers usually do so because they have elite traits.
“I don’t know that Carolina would be an environment to develop (Willis) appropriately because the offense is in flux and the offensive line has been inconsistent,” Crabbs continued. “They got great skill players to work with. But I would just be apprehensive about taking an overall developmental kid and plugging him in there.”
Option 2: If the Panthers identify a tackle they love at No. 6 then they would be comfortable forgoing a young quarterback in favor of pairing a blue-chip left tackle opposite right tackle Taylor Moton. There is a growing consensus that the 2022 offensive line class is very deep. Even without top prospects Ikem Ekwonu (N.C. State) or Evan Neal (Alabama) at the Senior Bowl (both are juniors), several linemen proved worthy of Day 1 consideration. While even more established themselves as viable starters or rotational pieces.
Option 3: With such depth, it may be best for the Panthers to trade back. If they find a suitor, general manager Scott Fitterer could recoup some Day 2 picks while still landing a viable offensive lineman. Currently Carolina only has one pick inside the Top 100.
Option 4: The Panthers’ fourth avenue would be trading back in the first round to gain middle-round picks but still selecting a quarterback they like.
Information overload
After an extensive week of practice and intel gathering at the Senior Bowl, Carolina will spend weeks leading up to the NFL combine setting its draft board and comparing it to the free-agent market. The information gathered at the Senior Bowl will help the Panthers decide which approach maximizes their offseason resources.
For example, one scout said Pickett hurt his stock on Day 2 while teams practiced outdoors in the pouring rain. Pickett struggled in the conditions with his ball control and taking snaps. Any club considering the Heisman finalist should allocate time to rewatching bad weather Pittsburgh games.
Despite leading Pitt to its first ACC championship in program history, throwing 42 touchdowns, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt and completing 67 percent of his throws, there is concern over Pickett’s ability to control a pro-sized football in poor conditions. He wears gloves on each of his hands and opted not to have his hands measured at the Senior Bowl.
One executive considers Pickett the most complete prospect but worries about his true ceiling at the pro level. Scouts have the opposite concerns about Willis. The Liberty quarterback impressed during all three practices by showcasing his powerful arm and elite athleticism. There were some concerns about his attention to detail during meetings but that should not harm his draft status. Instead, one scout said both Willis and Pickett could both be top-10 selections.
More quarterbacks
There is no perfect formula for evaluating quarterbacks. Often once all factors are considered, picks come down to gut feel. That was shown by one executive telling The Observer that not one quarterback at the Senior Bowl garnered a Round 1 grade. But quarterbacks are pushed up the draft every year because of need, and the Panthers are one of those teams that are desperate at the position.
After Pickett and Willis, Howell impressed with some throws during practice that proved he is capable of hitting any spot on the field. One scout said Howell has the best arm in his class, but he is unsure about the former Tar Heels’ leadership skills, or if Howell has the “it” factor so many look for at that position.
The other Senior Bowl quarterbacks were underwhelming during the practice sessions. Nevada’s Carson Strong throws a beautiful deep ball but cannot create outside the pocket. Clubs are also concerned about his history of knee injuries despite Strong being fully cleared to play. Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder stood out in interviews but did not generate any memorable practice plays, according to one scout. Western Kentucky’s Bailey Zappe is a fringe top-100 prospect who played like the fifth-ranked quarterback in Mobile.
Ole Miss’s Matt Corral did not participate in the Senior Bowl because of an ankle injury he suffered during his bowl game. The injury should not hurt his draft stock but his pro day and combine performances are important after missing the Senior Bowl.
How about a tackle?
If the Panthers decide to avoid a young quarterback prospect and instead explore the veteran trade market then there are plenty of intriguing tackles to consider.
“I think the tackle class is really deep,” Crabbs said. “At the top. It’s one of those rare positions where you could tell me that you’re getting the sixth tackle and I still feel like you’re going to have a multi-contract starter.”
Crabbs said Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning improved his value most of all the offensive linemen. The 6-foot-7, 320-pound tackle plays with a mean streak coaches love. He silenced doubts about his athleticism by holding his own against Power 5 pass rushers all week.
Penning could be a top-20 selection and likely the third tackle behind Neal and Ekwonu. Mississippi State tackle Charles Cross also belongs in that tier.
On the interior, Boston College guard Zion Johnson helped his stock by playing tackle, guard and center while in Mobile. One scout said he should be an early Day 2 pick but could go even earlier.
The Panthers have multiple avenues worth exploring as the offseason unfolds. Which route best suits them is the plan Carolina must accurately identify over the next few months.
“If you have to do damage control because you traded away all your middle-round picks then you can develop that (trade) market for six, ‘‘ Crabbs said. “Whether it’s an elite player who falls or you drum up interest in somebody or you play that game with the quarterback market if you want to and hope somebody bites. I think that that would probably be what I would advocate for Carolina to do.”
This story was originally published February 6, 2022 at 12:00 AM with the headline "Carolina Panthers may be changing their draft strategy after a week at the Senior Bowl."
