Why can’t Carolina sack the quarterback? And a startling Panthers-Chargers prediction

If the Carolina Panthers don’t sack L.A. Chargers rookie quarterback Justin Herbert in Sunday’s 4:05 p.m. game, they will set a dubious franchise record.

Now in their 26th season, the Panthers have never gone three straight games without a sack. They are on that precipice, though, having gone sackless in the first two games of this season.

Sacks, of course, aren’t the only barometer of defensive success. The 2019 Panthers had 53 of them, No. 2 in the NFL, and still managed to lose eight straight games to close out the season while getting Ron Rivera fired.

But sacks can be game changers. So can QB pressures, when you don’t quite get there but do make the quarterback throw under duress. That’s what happened on Tom Brady’s interception against Carolina last week.

Panthers defensive coordinator Phil Snow had some interesting thoughts on sacks this week. Among them was this: sacks in college football (where he and head coach Matt Rhule just came from, at Baylor) are more important than in the NFL.

“It’s really interesting,” Snow said, “because sacks in college really relate to winning. And then in the NFL, it’s more pressures on the quarterback that does.”

The Panthers’ analytics specialists have also told the Carolina coaching staff that 11 QB pressures per game is the tipping point for winning football.

In other words, regardless of how many sacks you get, 11 or more pressures usually gets you a win, while 10 or fewer doesn’t. Carolina has had five pressures — at least in the way the Panthers count them internally, which seems generous — in each of its first two games.

Snow also isn’t a big proponent of blitzing in the NFL, believing that getting to the quarterback with a four-man rush is key. He said that close to 70 percent of NFL sacks come on a standard four-man rush.

“When you blitz, somebody’s band is going to strike up — either theirs or yours,” said Snow, whose team blitz percentage of 17 percent is 27th in the NFL through two games. The top three blitz-happy teams are Pittsburgh (61.7 percent), Baltimore (47.1) and Buffalo (44.0), according to Pro Football Reference.

Against Brady, Snow went the opposite direction, frequently calling for a three-man rush in the second half with the idea of stopping up Brady’s passing lanes. That worked. Brady threw for only 19 yards after going for 198 in the first. But four Carolina turnovers and a late 46-yard TD run by the Bucs’ Leonard Fournette doomed the Panthers regardless.

All of Snow’s pass-rushing logic is well and good. But the bottom line is this, as he also said: “We’ve got to start being around the quarterback a little more.”

▪ One of the most exciting Panthers’ finishes ever came in 2008 against the Chargers, who were then based in San Diego. On the final play of the game, Jake Delhomme whistled a ball into a crowd in the end zone, and tight end Dante Rosario somehow came down with it for a 14-yard touchdown catch and a 26-24 Carolina win. Longtime Panther fans also remember that Dante Rosario was mistakenly identified as actress Rosario Dawson in a Fox Sports graphic that day.

▪ Prediction time: I am 2-0 so far picking Panthers’ games this season, choosing them to lose in both games.

I’ll go with a double prediction this week. First, the sackless Panthers won’t go a third game in a row without a sack: they will get two on Justin Herbert, with one coming from Brian Burns.

Second, the Panthers — who haven’t won a game since last Nov. 3rd and now are without Christian McCaffrey for at least the next three games — will nevertheless pull off a startling upset.

My pick: Carolina 30, Los Angeles 27.

This story was originally published September 27, 2020 at 7:00 AM with the headline "Why can’t Carolina sack the quarterback? And a startling Panthers-Chargers prediction."