Crunching the numbers: Carolina Forest well within playoff equation

Marc Morris had already laid out the course for his team prior to Monday’s practice.

The Carolina Forest coach told his players all that stood between them and the playoffs was a win over rival Conway. So Morris went to work. He told his offensive linemen he was going to be harder on them than normal this week.

He yelled emphatically at a defensive back who missed an assignment during a scout session.

Was he more ramped up than normal? Maybe not. But to him, beating Conway was all that mattered. Not because of the rivalry between the two schools separated by a few miles on U.S. 501 or the connection the teams’ players and fans share.

“Since I’ve walked on this campus, the main thing is to get to the playoffs,” Morris said. “My goal is to win a state championship. You can’t go if you ain’t in the dance. The thing is to get a ticket to the dance.

“When we lost that Sumter game [on Oct. 23], in our kids’ minds and definitely in our coaches’ minds, we knew we had to win the last two games to go to the playoffs. Region play is all that matters.”

Thing is, neither of those last two statements are 100 percent accurate.

In Class AAAA, the top three in six-team divisions are automatically awarded a playoff spot. However, the classification’s points system also hands out five at-large bids, typically earned by fourth-place or even fifth-place teams in a division.

While the system itself is ultimately based on finite numbers, keeping track of where 52 teams stand or projecting where they will finish is complicated. It’s frequently cited wrong in media reports and message boards, and even the coaches often have trouble breaking it all down accurately.

“Let me tell you who else doesn’t understand it,” Morris said, tapping his chest with a manilla envelope. “This guy.”

The man who does just so happens to work at Conway.

CRANKING THE NUMBERS

Anthony Carroll sits at home late each Friday with an iPad, tracking game scores and updating a spread sheet that by the end of the regular season will include 624 meaningful cells.

The Conway High baseball coach’s day job is teaching geometry and algebra. Math is sort of what he does.

A former football assistant, Carroll used to compute all the numbers – ones that will determine not only who makes the playoffs, but who plays where – so Tigers coach Chuck Jordan would have a good idea of where his team stood. A few years after Jordan became the chairperson of the Class AAAA football committee, Carroll’s role became more official.

When Jordan and the rest of the committee meets on the Saturday following the end of the regular season, the two go over the spreadsheet together and then use it as the guideline for the entire state.

“At this point, it’s become pretty basic stuff,” Carroll said. “We have the spread sheet set up year to year. Every two years, you have to go through and make sure everyone’s playing the same people. At that point, you’re putting in the information. You don’t have to sit there and add up the points.”

That doesn’t mean the system isn’t time-consuming. Needing three or four hours each week at this point of the season, Carroll goes team-by-team through all 52 in the state’s largest class.

That’s only the beginning. Based on a strength-of-schedule formula taking into account each opponent’s classification and whether or not it has a winning record, the figures in each of those cells can change from one game to the next.

The bigger the opponent’s enrollment, the more points you get. If that opponent has a winning record, the more points you get.

For example, Carolina Forest earned 3.5 points each in losses to Big 16 programs Fort Dorchester and Sumter, four points each for wins over Class AAA schools St. James and Myrtle Beach, which both are guaranteed winning records. Carolina Forest has three games that awarded it just three points (losses to North Myrtle Beach, South Florence and Lexington), and two of those will be marked off. At the end of the season, the impact of every game is felt.

History has already dictated that one point can make all the difference. It’s certainly happened before.

In 2010, Carolina Forest capped off a 7-4 regular season with a win over Conway. However, it was the Tigers who went to the playoffs. Chuck Jordan’s team held a slim, one-point advantage over the Panthers in the point system. It didn’t matter that Conway’s reward was a trip to No. 1 overall seed Goose Creek and the accompanying loss.

Carolina Forest’s streak of missing the Class AAAA postseason, now at seven seasons, extended. For all but two of those, the Panthers weren’t really in the discussion.

Until now.

Morris’ team, according to Carroll, is in really good shape if the Panthers (5-5 overall, 2-2 Region VI-AAAA) beat Conway. But what if Carolina Forest loses? If that happens, the Panthers could finish no better than fourth in the region, meaning they’d be hoping for an at-large bid.

“In the weight room, we got into this deep conversation about if this team wins, if this team loses,” Carolina Forest senior linebacker Bryce Garrell said. “I don’t think that anyone knows. I didn’t know we could get in if we lost. And I’m positive that’s not what coach wants to tell us.”

The Sultan of Spreadsheet predicts that scenario leaves Carolina Forest either as the last team in or the first one out, depending on how as few as four other teams from around the state fare the next two Fridays.

“I answered a lot of questions this week,” Carroll said. “Friday night will be a crazy night. Word gets out that I’ve got the sheet. I’ve been pretty good hitting the nail on the head on who plays who. I like doing it. We take a lot of pride in getting it right.”

CHANGING THE EQUATION

Garrell was in middle school in 2010 and 2011 when Carolina Forest had back-to-back 7-4 seasons.

He thought those Panthers teams were pretty good, he said this week. They just weren’t playoff-worthy, thanks to region finish and the points system.

Of those 14 victories in that two-year stretch, 10 came against schools from smaller classifications, and all 10 were against teams that would eventually finish with a losing record. Translation: Weak opponents killed Carolina Forest’s chances of making the playoffs.

Now, in Morris’ second season, the Panthers can continue their upward trend by securing a bid.

“I don’t know what it’s like to be in the playoffs,” Garrell said. “It’s going to be a bigger step for this program. Making it to the playoffs is going to be enough for these guys.”

The senior and his teammates can make the math work in their favor much easier with a win over Conway. It’s why the coach’s message has been so reliant upon this week’s game.

If the Panthers lose, next week – one that includes two delayed Class AAAA games that will affect the playoffs and Carolina Forest’s potential place in them – could be a long one.

“Control what you can control. Win the football game, and more than likely, we’re in the playoffs and moving on,” Morris said. “We’ll worry about the other outcomes if we need to.”

This story was originally published November 5, 2015 at 3:08 PM with the headline "Crunching the numbers: Carolina Forest well within playoff equation."