What Vegas Thinks: How rivalry element factors into Clemson-USC betting line
After a one-year hiatus, Clemson travels to South Carolina for the annual Palmetto Bowl rivalry game. ESPN Chalk gambling writer David Purdum talks about how each team’s recent success matters in the eyes of sportsbooks and how the rivalry factors into the betting line.
The State: Considering the makeup of both teams and how they’ve been perceived all year, what are your thoughts on Clemson being favored by 11?
David Purdum: It opened up at 12, dropped down to 11 in some spots. I think if we would’ve looked at this line before the season started, it would’ve been 20-plus, so that kind of shows us how Carolina has narrowed the gap a little bit. I say that they’ve been playing better, but so has Clemson, right? It’s an interesting number, double-digit number. I think it probably stays above 10 for sure, but I can see it dropping down to 10½.
TS: Does the fact that it’s a rivalry game factor into that number? What about it being a night game?
DP: Not so much for the night, but the rivalry, yes. It definitely factors into it a little bit. They usually kind of shade the underdog to have a little more of a motivation in these types of situations, so maybe that’s keeping that number down a little bit but nothing dramatic.
TS: When you talked about how regarded Clemson is in the oddsmakers’ eyes due to talented players, is the kind of performance the Tigers had against Wake Forest more of what the oddsmakers have expected from the team all year?
DP: Yeah, absolutely, and I think we talked last week about how we saw that number with Clemson favored over Wake Forest, a top 10-ranked team. With Clemson favored, that was really an indication they still have the talent and oddsmakers were expecting them to play up to that level of talent.
TS: South Carolina ended up being a 10-point underdog against Auburn but won by four. What is the Gamecocks’ record against the spread heading into the regular season finale this week?
DP: They’re 5-5-1, so about as even as you can get: five wins against the spread, five non-coverage against the spread and one push.
TS: How does that betting line compare to some of the other rivalry games that are being played this week like the Iron Bowl, the Egg Bowl and the Border Battle (Minnesota-Wisconsin)?
DP: I’ll compare it first to past lines. They didn’t have this game last year but in 2019, Clemson was a 27½-point favorite. The year before that, they were a 26-point favorite. Clemson has been favored by 20 or more points four of the last five meetings between these two teams, so they really separated themselves in that realm.
Some of the other comparable lines, like you said, the Iron Bowl, Alabama is a 19-point favorite. So if you think about that, they’ve established more of a gap between Alabama and Auburn than there has been between South Carolina and Clemson. That hasn’t been the case in the previous years. Then you’ve got the big one, the Ohio State-Michigan game. Ohio State’s an 8½-point favorite so it’s in that range, Clemson a little better than those teams.
This story was originally published November 24, 2021 at 12:00 AM with the headline "What Vegas Thinks: How rivalry element factors into Clemson-USC betting line."
