Final thoughts, prediction: Why Clemson needs a season-opening win more than Georgia
If I had a dollar for every time I’ve heard someone say, “Clemson doesn’t play anybody,” I probably wouldn’t have student loans.
It’s a constant criticism for anyone looking to discredit the Tigers’ success as they’ve become a national powerhouse program. They’ve responded by making the College Football Playoff six times in a row, two trips of which ended in national titles.
Still, there’s some truth to the sentiment. That’s why Saturday’s contest with No. 5 Georgia is so crucial for the third-ranked Tigers.
“If you’re Clemson and you lose this game, it puts you on the back burner, in my view, based on what the (College Football Playoff) committee has done in recent years,” ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit said Wednesday, “and I think that would give Clemson fans a little bit of anxiousness about this game. They need to win this game, even though it’s Week 1.”
When it comes to the committee, Herbstreit said the group compiles a cluster of qualifications for each playoff team, with head-to-head being one. Other factors considered are strength of schedule and conference championships.
“You do not want to get caught up in a cluster against Georgia and have the committee say, ‘Well, they lost to these guys early in the year, so we’re going to give Georgia the advantage,’ ” Herbstreit explained. “They don’t always do that, but more often than not, that’s what they fall back on.”
According to ESPN’s power rankings of 2021 FBS schedules, Georgia’s was ninth hardest in the country and the sixth toughest in the SEC.
Clemson, however, ranked 49th in the country and had the second-easiest schedule in the ACC behind Duke. The glaring, most obvious rationale behind this: Clemson doesn’t play Clemson. (No, scrimmages don’t count here.) Where Georgia has other conference foes like Florida — ranked 13th in the AP preseason poll — to pack some punch in its schedule, the Tigers lack a competitive team in the ACC’s Atlantic Division.
Going back to 2019 (because we can all agree 2020 doesn’t really count, right?), only four of Clemson’s 2021 opponents had a record of .500 or better, while six reached the six-win mark to earn bowl eligibility.
By contrast, seven of the Bulldogs’ 2021 opponents finished with a winning record and went bowling in 2019. The Tigers and Bulldogs do share two common opponents in Georgia Tech and South Carolina as conference mates and rivals, respectively. The Yellow Jackets went 3-9 in 2019, while the Gamecocks finished 4-8.
The Tigers’ Football Power Index — the expected point margin versus average opponent on a neutral field — is the second-highest in the country (26.8) behind Alabama (27.4). The Bulldogs are fifth nationally with a 20.3 FPI.
ESPN writer Bill Connelly tweeted out his own SP+ projection and ranked Clemson’s strength of schedule 70th and Georgia 47th.
A loss would put a damper on the start of the year, but the thing to remember here is, the Tigers are are projected to win every other game and add a seventh straight ACC conference title. That likely leads to a trip to the CFP for the sixth year in a row. Division teams like Boston College and Florida State as well as North Carolina, the No. 10 team in the AP preseason poll, in the Coastal Division are expected to be more competitive this season. None have passed the almighty eye test to give cause for dethroning Clemson heading into the season, but if one does, the Tigers’ path to a New Years Eve Bowl gets trickier.
Regardless, Clemson’s chances of making the playoffs remain. That’s not in question so much as is the strength of schedule test the playoff committee often includes in its criteria. Officially counting 2020, Clemson’s win average win margin was 27.3 points, outscoring opponents 1189-445 over the past two years. Two national titles in the past six years helps make a case for the Tigers despite lack of high-profile regular-season games.
The reality of the Tigers having a weaker schedule doesn’t negate the talent and strength of the squad, and the Las Vegas oddsmakers seem to agree. Clemson is a three-point favorite to win the season opener.
Even if Georgia loses, there’s still a strong chance it’ll make the playoffs. The SEC West is projected to be down this year, giving the Bulldogs a shot at the conference championship. Their inevitable foe will be Alabama, which controls the 41-25-4 series lead over Georgia.
Will the loser of the season opener between Georgia and Clemson be eliminated from the CFP conversation? Absolutely not.
But, in the event either slips up later, would a two-loss Georgia team be more excusable than a two-loss Clemson team? Absolutely.
Calling the contest a must-win is a bit dramatic this early, but a 1-0 start gives Clemson a quality win out of the gate and forward momentum in pursuit of a perfect year and third national championship in the last decade.
— Prediction: Clemson 21, Georgia 20 —
How to watch Clemson vs UGA football
Who: No. 3 Clemson (0-0) vs. No. 5 Georgia (0-0)
When: 7:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (full capacity is 74,867)
Watch/TV: ABC
Watch/Stream: ESPN app
This story was originally published September 4, 2021 at 5:45 AM with the headline "Final thoughts, prediction: Why Clemson needs a season-opening win more than Georgia."
