Supercomputer Predicts USMNT's 2026 World Cup Finish After Reaching Round of 16
The USMNT is starting to believe in miracles following its first World Cup knockout stage victory in 24 years on Wednesday.
The tournament co-hosts continued their purple patch under Mauricio Pochettino by beating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2–0 in the round of 32, Folarin Balogun scoring and being controversially sent off before Malik Tillman wrapped up victory in the closing stages.
"Everything is possible, why not us?" Pochettino has reiterated throughout the tournament, and an increasingly hopeful American audience is starting to believe him. After three wins from four World Cup matches, the dream is building.
But does Opta's fabled supercomputer concur? It's been in overdrive this summer, predicting every eventuality across the expanded 48-team tournament, and it has now updated the USMNT's chances of glory on home soil following Wednesday's win.
Supercomputer Predicts USMNT's World Cup Finish
The USMNT was given a 76.96% chance of overcoming Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 32 and while its odds of triumphing in the round of 16 have diminished, it's still considered the most marginal of favorite for next Monday's all-or-nothing clash with European giant Belgium at Lumen Field.
The supercomputer gives the USMNT a 50.06% chance of making it to the quarterfinals of the World Cup for only the third time, and the first since the 2002 tournament in Japan and South Korea.
Belgium's stunning 3–2 comeback victory over Senegal is a warning of its talents, but Rudi Garcia‘s side have been largely terrible at the tournament to date, and were incredibly fortunate to avoid elimination on Wednesday.
Of course, things will get much trickier if the Stars and Stripes indeed progress to the last eight. They are guaranteed to face yet another European foe, with one of Spain, Austria, Portugal or Croatia an unwanted adversary.
| Round | USMNT's Odds of Advancing |
|---|---|
| Round of 16 | 100% |
| Quarterfinal | 50.06% |
| Semifinal | 18.39% |
| Final | 6.06% |
| Winners | 2.32% |
Realistically, Spain and Portugal look the most likely opponents, and the USMNT would be fearing the worst coming up against either one of the Iberian behemoths in California. As a result, it's given just an 18.39% chance of making the semifinals, a percentage which will change depending on its foe.
A semifinal against one of Morocco, France, Paraguay or Canada would then lie in wait, although it will almost certainly be the French, who have easily been the tournament's best performers to date. Such an arduous path to the final is underscored by the USMNT's mere 6.06% chance of reaching the showpiece event.
If Pochettino's side somehow battled their way to the 104th match of this summer's event, they are given a 2.32% chance of winning the tournament-currently lower than the likes of Colombia, Mexico and Norway. A match-up with one of Brazil, England or Argentina looks most likely should the USMNT decide to start projecting its route to the final.
This World Cup has already provided some gigantic shocks, many of which have involved nations overperforming expectations. As Pochettino has been keen to remind reporters, why can't the USMNT go all the way?
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