Gilberto Manzano's Over/Under Win Total Predictions for all 32 Teams

The biggest mistake when it comes to making final record predictions is assuming everything is going to stay the same in the NFL. It's a long season, and it's impossible for us to know what Week 18 will look like as we sit here in May.

As for one of the bigger mistakes, when it comes to betting, it's constantly going with the over. For whatever reason, public bettors love going with the over more frequently than the under, and the oddsmakers are aware of that, which I learned from shadowing a few Las Vegas oddsmakers last season. So don't be a square and sprinkle in a few more under bets.

With that in mind, here are my over/under predictions for NFL win totals in 2026. And, yes, there's a good number of under bets below that will surely upset a few fan bases. Last year, let's just say, I broke about even.

Hopefully I'll have better results for this upcoming season. But, honestly, there are a few bets from the list below that I wouldn't touch. So I decided to rank these in order from most confident to least confident.

Note: All over/under win totals courtesy of DraftKings.

1. Detroit Lions: 10.5

Prediction: Over

I'm all in on the Lions benefiting from a weak strength of schedule. But my colleague Conor Orr brought up some good points in his annual "teams that got screwed by the schedule-makers" column. Still, I'm high on this team because of the improvements along the offensive line, including the first-round selection of Blake Miller and signing of center Cade Mays.

The 2026 Lions could be the '25 49ers when it comes to filling the role of perennial winner coming off a rare down season now taking advantage of a favorable schedule. If Detroit can get better results from new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, this team is too talented not to win at least 11 games.

2. New England Patriots: 9.5

Prediction: Under

Maybe it's better to wait to take the under here, because there's a chance this will go up to 10.5 with similar odds if A.J. Brown ends up being traded to New England come June 1. Or the number is already baked in because all signs point toward Brown landing in New England. Regardless, I'm O.K. with the current total line. There's been too much drama with the Patriots and it probably won't stop with how much has come out from the Mike Vrabel–Dianna Russini saga.

I don't think Brown can save this team from the negativity, but to offer more football insight, New England went from having a "cupcake" 2025 schedule to being dealt one of the tougher ones in the league. Also, the team could be making a mistake by not moving Will Campbell from tackle to guard after how poorly he played in the postseason.

3.Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5

Prediction: Under

Nope, I'm not buying that the Chiefs will be mighty again after winning only six games last year. The benefits from a perennial winner having a rare losing season don't fully apply for Kansas City because this roster isn't on the level of Detroit's, which has younger stars, more depth and a starting quarterback who isn't coming back from a significant knee injury sustained in December.

The Chiefs keep expressing optimism that Patrick Mahomes will be ready for the season opener, and he was on the field sporting a knee brace during OTAs. But they likely signed Justin Fields with the idea that he might be needed early in the season while Mahomes makes a full recovery. Additionally, there are still question marks about this suspect receiving corps, and Rashee Rice is nursing a knee injury while in jail. Perhaps Rice will get hit with another suspension or the team will finally rid itself of his off-the-field issues.

4.Buffalo Bills: 10.5

Prediction: Over

I think the level of consistency we've become accustomed to with this team should remain the same even with new coach Joe Brady, who has worked with Josh Allen for the past four years. It also helps that Allen's weaponry got better with the trade for DJ Moore. The defense got better as well with the signings of Bradley Chubb and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and the draft selection of T.J. Parker.

Part of me wants to place this bet inside the top three, but I'm trying to avoid the trap of relying too much on over bets. However, it was hard to resist because Buffalo has four combined games against the Dolphins and Jets, two AFC East teams that will probably be picking high in next year's draft.

5.New York Jets: 5.5

Prediction: Under

Coach Aaron Glenn won't let this team tank, especially because he's already on the hot seat and the season is still months away. That's how poorly his first year went, which included zero interceptions for all of 2025 by his defense. The Jets could be better with a veteran-heavy roster, but six wins seems too high for this team that wants to pick early in the loaded QB class of 2027.

It's not a given that Geno Smith will find his stride after a horrific 2025, which included a league-high 17 interceptions. And let's not forget that Smith's poor performances helped the Raiders land the No. 1 pick in last month's draft.

6.Green Bay Packers: 10.5

Prediction: Under

I feel like a broken record at this point with all my concerns about the Packers. There's not enough depth behind Micah Parsons, who might not be fully healthy from his torn ACL come the season opener. And there's also all the offseason departures, including wide receivers Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks.

But, hey, we'll see if they prove me wrong or strike another late summer blockbuster trade. Even with the acquisition of Parsons, the Packers only won nine games last season. Green Bay has underachieved since Jordan Love guided his team to a surprising wild-card playoff win over the Cowboys to cap off the 2023 season.

7.Cleveland Browns: 6.5

Prediction: Under

Stubbornly, the Browns are still trying to get something out of Deshaun Watson four years after making him the centerpiece of the worst trade and contract handed out in NFL history. Signs are pointing toward Watson getting the job over second-year quarterback Shedeur Sanders. The QB options aren't the best in Cleveland, but maybe new coach Todd Monken will get more out of this offense than Kevin Stefanski did the past two years.

Overall, this roster looks to be trending in the right direction with a promising rookie class and productive 2025 draft, but seven wins is high for a team that won only eight combined games the past two years.

8.Arizona Cardinals: 4.5

Prediction: Under

I do worry, for the sake of my under bet, about new coach Mike LaFleur maximizing this revamped rushing attack with rookie Jeremiyah Love to be occasionally competitive. But I'm content with the under here, given the options at quarterback, and there's still a chance Jacoby Brissett could be traded after asking for a pay raise.

With Arizona adding what seemed like 10 running backs this offseason (the team also signed Tyler Allgeier), that meant less attention was placed on fixing the other side of the ball, which could use another edge rusher opposite Josh Sweat. There are still several holes throughout this defense.

9.Houston Texans: 9.5

Prediction: Over

The Texans' elite defense managed to overcome an 0–3 start and sluggish offense to win 12 games last year. It wouldn't be a stretch to say this unit can be better in 2026 with most of its elite players being under 30, outside of Danielle Hunter, and it added defensive tackle Kayden McDonald in the second round last month.

Maybe this is the year Will Anderson Jr. finally wins Defensive Player of the Year. Also, C.J. Stroud could be at his best as he enters a pivotal fourth season and searches for a contract extension.

10.Seattle Seahawks: 10.5

Prediction: Over

The Seahawks surprised many last year by winning the Super Bowl. I won't count them out this year based on how quickly coach Mike Macdonald and GM John Schneider assembled one of the strongest teams in football. Yes, Seattle lost plenty of playmakers in free agency, but it might have gained a few gems in the draft. This team knows how to find and develop talent.

Nick Emmanwori, Grey Zabel and Byron Murphy II were all drafted in the past two years. These are just a few of many notable players who are still ascending in their young careers.

11.Las Vegas Raiders: 5.5

Prediction: Over

The nixed Maxx Crosby trade hurt the team's long-term rebuilding plans because the two first-round picks from Baltimore never arrived, but keeping the star edge rusher could help the Raiders in the present. Las Vegas has the look of a sleeper wild-card contender with all the offseason additions, including center Tyler Linderbaum, linebackers Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker, and rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza (if he sees the field).

Also, this offense could be better if Brock Bowers stays healthy after dealing with a knee injury for most of his second season. New coach Klint Kubiak has the pieces in Las Vegas to make some noise.

12.Baltimore Ravens: 11.5

Prediction: Under

It seems many are assuming the Ravens will be fine after a rare down year. While this roster is still talented, I worry about a feel-out year with rookie coach Jesse Minter that could cause plenty of bumps along the way. Baltimore would have been better off sticking with the Crosby trade it had agreed to before his physical.

Now, the Ravens need Trey Hendrickson to be just as impactful in the run game as he is against the pass. The Crosby trade made sense because he excels in both areas. Overall, this total is too high for a team with several changes in the offseason.

13.Los Angeles Rams: 11.5

Prediction: Over

Truthfully, I had some regrets about giving the Rams a 13–4 final record prediction after the schedule was released last week. The schedule-makers did them no favors, but the best roster in football also didn't need the extra help. I still believe they'll be the NFC's No. 1 seed in 2026. This loaded roster immensely improved its one weakness by adding cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.

On paper, there's not a noticeable concern on a team that has Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams on one side and pass rushers Jared Verse and Byron Young on the other. But it's worth noting that special teams were a problem at times last year.

14.Cincinnati Bengals: 9.5

Prediction: Over

This is a bit difficult because going against this terrible defense the past few seasons has made me look good. But it's better to get out early, and moves were made in the offseason for this unit to get better, at least along the front. Cincinnati lost Trey Hendrickson in free agency, but traded for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II and signed edge rusher Boye Mafe and veteran defensive tackle Jonathan Allen.

The back end of the defense could be a problem, but Joe Burrow is due for a bounce-back, fully healthy season. With a high-scoring offense, this defense just needs to hover around mediocrity.

15.Los Angeles Chargers: 10.5

Prediction: Over

I don't know if Justin Herbert will ever win a playoff game. But I do know Jim Harbaugh usually has his team in the postseason mix. Since hiring Harbaugh, L.A. has gone back-to-back seasons with at least 11 wins. Double-digit victories seems to be the floor for this team that should be better if tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater stay healthy.

Second-year running back Omarion Hampton could be on the verge of a breakout season if he can stay healthy after missing eight games as a rookie. Injuries often get in the way of this team reaching its full potential.

16. Dallas Cowboys: 9.5

Prediction: Over

The Cowboys should have more of a balanced roster with the improvements they made on defense. Rookie safety Caleb Downs could provide an immediate boost, and there's depth at edge rusher, which wasn't the case last summer after the sudden Micah Parsons trade.

If the contract negotiations with George Pickens, who was hit with the franchise tag, don't get messy and he's available for training camp, this should again be one of the better offenses in the league after averaging 27.7 points per game last year.

17.Miami Dolphins: 4.5

Prediction: Over

The Dolphins had a strange offseason, which consisted of them pursuing quarterback Malik Willis in free agency and immediately stripping the roster by trading Jaylen Waddle and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Willis lacks talented wide receivers, but has electric running back De'Von Achane and a decent offensive line that just gained rookie first-round tackle Kadyn Proctor.

Keep in mind, the Dolphins play the Jets twice and have a meeting against the Raiders. They'll have a competitive stretch to clear this low bar.

18.New Orleans Saints: 7.5

Prediction: Over

Disappointingly, I'm not alone in thinking the Saints are going to win the NFC South this season. They've been a trendy worst-to-first candidate ever since the schedule was released last week. Even if they don't achieve that, eight wins seems feasible for an exciting offense led by second-year quarterback Tyler Shough and wide receivers Chris Olave and rookie Jordyn Tyson. Additionally, the Saints have one of the easiest schedules in the league.

19.Indianapolis Colts: 7.5

Prediction: Over

I have my reservations about the Colts re-signing Daniel Jones and siding with Alec Pierce over Michael Pittman Jr. But this is a low win total for a team with solid coaching. Maybe I should be cautious in that assessment because coach Shane Steichen hasn't made the postseason in his three years in Indianapolis. But his team did overachieve a bit last year before the wheels came off after an 8–2 start.

20.Tennessee Titans: 6.5

Prediction: Over

The Titans had an impressive, balanced offseason by adding plenty of defensive talent in free agency and using the No. 4 pick in the draft on wide receiver Carnell Tate. There's been plenty of buzz coming out of Nashville regarding Tate's practice performances.

New coach Robert Saleh is well-equipped to get immediate results from his defense and Cam Ward has the playmakers to make real progress in his second season. The team also added wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson in free agency.

21.Minnesota Vikings: 8.5

Prediction: Over

Even in a disastrous year due to the lack of progress from J.J. McCarthy, the Vikings still found a way to post a 9–8 record in 2025. If Kyler Murray stays healthy, this team should get better quarterback play, and defensive coordinator Brian Flores is still around to get positive results from a unit that took a few hits this offseason, including the departure of Jonathan Greenard.

22.Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5

Prediction: Over

Part of me wants to go under now that coach Mike Tomlin and his 19-year streak of .500-or-better seasons are gone. But this roster remains mostly the same and new coach Mike McCarthy could get better results from this offense-even with Aaron Rodgers, who'll turn 43 in December. The Steelers probably won't win a playoff game, but the streak of non-losing seasons could continue.

23.Atlanta Falcons: 6.5

Prediction: Under

We have reached the point where I would rather stay away from the following over/under bets. I don't see a new coach bump here after the Falcons hired Stefanski. His offenses in Cleveland were either really bad or just average. (The Browns averaged fewer than 17 points per game the past two seasons.)

But Stefanski now has Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Still, I would rather go under here because of the uncertainty in a QB room with Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa.

24.Carolina Panthers: 7.5

Prediction: Under

Bryce Young could prove me wrong, but I'm willing to bet against him here. He was sensational in the two games against the Rams last season, including the wild-card loss. But that was against a bad secondary, and his overall numbers showed a quarterback still dealing with plenty of ups and downs in his third season. Young completed 63.6% of his passes for 3,011 yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last year. This will be a make-or-break Year 4 for him in Carolina.

25. Denver Broncos: 9.5

Prediction: Under

I don't believe the trade for Jaylen Waddle, who hasn't cracked 1,000 receiving yards since 2023, will solve all the concerns on the offensive side. This team has been too reliant on the defense and that could continue if the new-look offense needs time to get acclimated. But I'm not fully confident in this bet. Coach Sean Payton has gotten better results in each of the three seasons he's been in Denver.

26.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8.5

Prediction: Over

Tampa Bay has underachieved the past few seasons with a talented offense and now has to move forward without Mike Evans. But the Buccaneers have invested on the defensive side the past two drafts and maybe this will be the year it all comes together for coach Todd Bowles's unit. Whether they get an immediate impact from rookie first-round edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. could determine how this defense fares in 2026.

27.Jacksonville Jaguars: 8.5

Prediction: Over

The Jaguars haven't had the best offseason. They stood on the sidelines for most of free agency and were criticized for reaching for players in the draft, which could explain this low win total for a team that won the AFC South last year. Maybe there'll be a letdown in Year 2 with coach Liam Coen and GM James Gladstone, but nine wins seems attainable.

28. Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5

Prediction: Under

If A.J. Brown does end up being traded, there will be too many moving parts for Jalen Hurts to continue the high standard that the Eagles are accustomed to. There's a new offensive coordinator again in Sean Mannion, making him Hurts's fifth play-caller in as many seasons. Mannion will be tasked with turning DeVonta Smith into the focal point of the passing game and getting fast results from rookie first-rounder Makai Lemon.

29.Chicago Bears: 9.5

Prediction: Over

It's easier to bet on more wins for Chicago because Caleb Williams proved last season he's on the brink of superstardom. And usually with star QBs, nine wins is the floor. So, with an ascending Williams and a retooled secondary with the arrivals of safeties Dillon Thieneman and Coby Bryant, the Bears should pick up where they left off in a surprise 2025 season. But they won't be catching any team off guard this season and it doesn't help that center Drew Dalman abruptly retired this offseason.

30.Washington Commanders: 7.5

Prediction: Under

If Jayden Daniels stays healthy in 2026, this bet will likely look foolish. But after the team focused mostly on the defensive side this offseason, there are a few concerns with Daniels's skill players. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin is the lone reliable playmaker and he'll turn 31 in September. Washington desperately needs another pass catcher to step up.

Maybe there should be more concern about the team losing Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator and replacing him with David Blough.

31.San Francisco 49ers: 10.5

Prediction: Under

The 49ers overachieved last season, in what was supposed to be a reset year due to several veterans moving on. Perhaps the opposite will happen in 2026 with them underachieving after the splash addition of Mike Evans. This team still has to prove it can stay healthy after all the injury waves in recent years, and overcome the challenges that could arise from logging more than 45,000 travel miles.

32. New York Giants: 7.5

Prediction: Under

This is definitely one bet to stay away from. I think coach John Harbaugh will immediately make this team better. I just don't know if the Giants can go from a competitive team to a playoff contender in Year 1. With hesitation, I'll say the wins won't come fast, but there could be a strong finish to create real buzz for next season.

However, this total seems like a low bar for a team stacked with pass rushers that just added one of the most accomplished head coaches in the league over the past two decades. But again, I will be staying away from this one.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Gilberto Manzano's Over/Under Win Total Predictions for all 32 Teams.

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This story was originally published May 28, 2026 at 9:23 AM.