Economic report supporting I-73 is flawed

Contrary to The Sun News Editorial Board position, “economic realities” do not support I-73. The I-73 proponents are still basing their claims of economic benefits on the Economic Impact of I-73 in South Carolina report done for the North Eastern Strategic Alliance (NESA) by Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics in 2011.

That report predicted that building I-73 would create 29,000 jobs, 18,856 of them solely due to the increase in tourism resulting from travel time saved driving on I-73. The promoters of I-73 were so pleased, they never checked her math. I did.

Since Chmura assumed travelers would save one to two hours travel time instead of the more realistic 15 to 20 minutes, the calculated increase in tourism should not have been Chmura's predicted 7.1%, but less than 2%. Chmura then compounded that error by applying this 7.1% increase to the entire annual 2009 tourist volume of 15.2 million instead of the much smaller number who might actually save time by driving on I-73 (when it was assumed not to be a toll road).

The major boosters of I-73 have all been given the complete written explanation of these errors, yet they persist in promoting I-73, and continue to mislead the public with false claims of jobs and benefits.

It gets worse. Their latest strategy is to fund I-73 by building it as a toll road. SCDOT Commission Chairman Mike Wooten is trying to keep the draft of a $200,000 tolling study under wraps. The draft of this new study projects toll revenues beginning in 2025 out to 2050 as being inadequate to pay for construction or maintenance.

Worse yet, the projections for future potential traffic and population in the future I-73 corridor were again made by Chmura, who made the same errors for this new study as she made in the previous NESA study - in other words, far more optimistic than reality. The draft tolling study is a mind-numbing 294 pages filled with tables and graphs, and is virtually worthless because of Chmura's errors.

I-73 is a waste of $2.4 billion. It would not ease traffic on the “busy, crowded highway” between Myrtle Beach and Conway. Anyone who has seen the I-73 map can see that the last leg runs on S.C. 22 from north of Conway to Briarcliffe Acres, a 4-lane, limited-access road that has still not relieved U.S. 501 traffic since it was built more than 10 years ago. For years the proponents of I-73 have been claiming new businesses serving added traffic will spring up at the interchanges on I-73. They claim that industries will not locate here unless I-73 is built.

All of these claims are again based on the error-plagued Chmura NESA report. Chmura predicted that 24 motels, 17 gas stations, 15 fast-food restaurants and 13 sit-down restaurants would be built at the five SC 22 interchanges just in Horry County alone by 2030, employing 1,262 people. Anyone believe that? No tourist is going to stop less than an hour away from the beach to eat, gas up or sleep, coming or going.

Scott Dilliard, who wrote a letter to The Sun News published Feb. 1, is mistaken if he believes that environmental concerns are the only reasons to oppose I-73, and that offering Gunter's Island as a bribe will clear the way.

This story was originally published February 15, 2016 at 8:38 AM with the headline "Economic report supporting I-73 is flawed."