Will Myrtle Beach see effects of potential tropical formation over the Gulf Coast?
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a low pressure system near the Texas and Mexico border that has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next two days. It would be the first named storm to form in the Atlantic basin for the season.
The system would be named Tropical Storm Arthur if cyclone development continues and it reaches sustained wind speeds of 39 mph or higher. Effects mainly pose a threat to Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi with risks of heavy rainfall and flooding, but much of the impacts are not predicted to reach this far east, according to National Weather Service meteorologists.
Meteorologist Victoria Oliva from the NWS in Wilmington said the Myrtle Beach area is expected to see scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms on Friday, but that’s associated with a cold front moving in.
“At the moment we’re not outlooked for any severe chances, but we’re keeping an eye out,” Oliva said.
It is still too early to determine whether the system will move quickly or linger, she said, but there may be a minor flood risk from Friday’s storms. Conditions are expected to dry out heading into the weekend.
Ahead of the cold front, the heat index is expected to reach triple digits on Thursday, Oliva said. Last weekend’s high heat indices prompted a heat advisory across Horry County. Meteorologists advise staying hydrated and taking breaks from being outdoors.
“It’s honestly just typical summertime for us,” Oliva said. “We get that nice humidity ahead of the front, which will give us those triple digit heat indices on Thursday, and then cold front will bring us thunderstorms on Friday, followed by (a) cool down to more normal temperatures for the weekend, so upper 80s.”
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced in May the center is predicting eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
The predictions included a 55% chance of a below-normal season, 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
Hurricane season starts on June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30 each year, but hurricanes can appear before or after the time frame.
This year’s season was predicted at the fate of a strengthening El Niño. El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a natural climate pattern, which shift back and forth every two to seven years with neutral phases in between lasting months or longer.
NOAA announced an El Niño has developed and is expected to strengthen later this season. An El Niño often indicates higher Atlantic sea temperatures but increased vertical wind shear, which is unfavorable to Atlantic hurricane formation.