What SC can expect from Atlantic hurricane forecast. How many are predicted for 2026?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its Atlantic hurricane seasonal outlook Thursday morning, predicting a below-normal season.
NOAA announced Thursday at a press briefing the center is predicting eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
The predictions included a 55% chance of a below-normal season, 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season. The current predictions do not include landfall location information.
Hurricane season starts on June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30 each year, but hurricanes can appear before or after the time frame.
This year’s season was predicted at the fate of a strengthening El Niño. El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a natural climate pattern, which shift back and forth every two to seven years with neutral phases in between lasting months or longer.
There is a 98% chance an El Niño will develop later this season and an 80% it will become a moderate or strong El Niño, according to NOAA. An El Niño often indicates higher Atlantic sea temperatures but increased vertical wind shear, which is unfavorable to Atlantic hurricane formation.
Because an El Niño presents unfavorable conditions for Atlantic activity, the opposite occurs in the Pacific. A 70% chance of an above average season is predicted for the central and eastern Pacific, according to NOAA.
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham told the public not to let the term “below” cause unpreparedness. For new coastal residents who have never experienced a hurricane season and longer-term residents who may have become complacent, Graham said it's important to “go back to basics” in terms of preparation education.
NOAA Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere Dr. Neil Jacobs said Category 5 storms have made landfall in the past during below-normal prediction seasons.
“Be ready, have a plan, listen to your state and emergency managers,” Jacobs said at the press briefing. “Preparation is essential.”
Previous seasonal predictions from Colorado State University
Colorado State University called for somewhat below-average activity when its predictions were released April 9. The university has issued an Atlantic hurricane forecast for the past 43 years and has become a well known hurricane prediction center in the country.
This year CSU predicted 13 named storms, of which they predict six to become hurricanes and two to become major hurricanes with sustained winds 111 mph or higher. This falls below the long-term seasonal average of 14, seven and three, respectively.
CSU predicted that 2026 hurricane activity will be about 75% of the average season from 1991 to 2020. By comparison, 2025’s hurricane activity was about 105% of the average season, CSU forecasters said.
The 2025 season had no hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. for the first time in a decade, but it still produced above-average activity in the Atlantic basin with 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Three hurricanes reached Category 5 intensity: Erin, Humberto and Melissa. Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica, and resulted in 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.
CSU forecasters said early predictions are historically less accurate than forecasts closer to peak season due to significant atmospheric and oceanic changes as the season approaches.
How have hurricanes impacted the South Carolina coast in years past?
From 1851 to 2025, only four major hurricanes have made landfall in South Carolina, according to South Carolina Department of Natural Resources’ hurricane summary.
They include the 1893 Great Charleston Hurricane, Hurricane Hazel of 1954, Hurricane Gracie of 1959 and Hurricane Hugo of 1989. No Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall in the state.
Hurricane Hugo destroyed thousands of homes along the Grand Strand from powerful storm surge, reaching 14-foot waves in some areas.
But several tropical storms have created significant damage from inland flooding in the last 10 years.
Hurricane Florence of 2018, reduced to a tropical storm by the time it reached South Carolina, dropped over 20 inches of rain in Horry County, the highest recorded rainfall from a storm in the state since 1950. Because the system was so slow moving, it lingered for much longer resulting in higher rainfall.
Hurricanes Debby and Helene of 2024 are second and third for the highest recorded rainfall in the state, both tropical storms when reaching South Carolina. Helene also sparked 21 tornadoes in the state, the most from one event since 2020. Total insured losses from Helene in the state reached $1.2 billion, making it the most expensive weather-related disaster in the state since Hugo in 1989, according to SCDNR.