Hurricane Isaias live updates: Myrtle Beach area leaders look on as Bahamas, Florida prep
8 p.m. Storm Update
The National Hurricane Center’s latest cone projection furthers the notion that the Carolinas could be in for a tropical storm situation as Isaias arrives likely sometime Monday.
The latest update has the storm riding the Florida coast and weakening to a tropical storm before scraping by Georgia by Monday morning. Thereafter, the cone has it remaining a tropical storm while passing — or coming onto — the Grand Strand likely Monday afternoon. The cone, however, does show the eye coming near the Myrtle Beach area with winds not quite at hurricane levels.
It was previously thought the Grand Strand could face up to a Category 2 storm. It is important to note that such storms can change often an rapidly, so projections don’t always hold up.
At 8 p.m., Isaias was about 175 miles south-southeast of Nassau with sustained winds up to 80 mph.
5 p.m. Storm Update
The latest cone projection from the National Hurricane Center has Isaias dropping back down to a tropical storm by the time it passes — or enters — the Grand Strand on Monday afternoon.
Still, the City of Myrtle Beach has issued a civil emergency declaration out of precaution as much can change in the coming hours and days.
At 5 p.m., Hurricane Isaias was located about 195 miles south-southeast of Nassau while moving northwest at approximately 15 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The NHC expects Isaias to continue in a general northwestward motion with decreased speed until making a turn toward the north-northwest late Sunday.
The NHC projects the storm to through the Bahamas on Friday night into Saturday before it moves near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are at 75 mph with some stronger gusts. Isaias is expected to strengthen later Friday night and early Saturday while maintaining hurricane status for the next couple days, according to the NHC.
Some parts of Florida and the Bahamas have issued hurricane warnings, while other areas within those entities have imposed hurricane watches, and tropical storm and storm surge warnings.
4 p.m. Storm Update
As uncertainty continues to mount as to what impact Hurricane Isaias will have on the Grand Strand, Horry County Council voted on Friday to move its emergency operations into what’s known as OPCON 2, meaning the departments are in a “heightened state of awareness.”
North Myrtle Beach and the City of Conway made similar declarations during special meetings called Friday afternoon.
The action essentially allows municipalities to adopt emergency ordinances to meet public emergency affecting life, health, safety or the property of the people in that particular area.
Myrtle Beach spokesperson Mark Kurea said the city is monitoring the storm, and will make any announcements about it over the weekend. No declaration has been issued in Surfside Beach thus far.
There is currently no plans to issue an evacuation order on the statewide level, Gov. Henry McMaster said in press conference Friday afternoon.
1 p.m. Storm Update
During a 1 p.m. press conference with the National Weather Service, forecasters urged the Carolinas will be impacted by Hurricane Isaias. While it’s still too early to tell the magnitude of the impact, in regard to winds, surge and rainfall, forecasters say the area could see tropical storm-force winds starting Sunday night through Monday night.
While there’s considerable uncertainty about wind strength, the threat continues to increase, especially along and off the coast.
“Trends have been increasing and it’s something to keep an eye on,” said NWS Meteorologist Steven Pfaff. “It’s still early but we’re on the cusp of being able to provide more information. It’s looking more and more likely we’ll be dealing with impacts from this storm.”
Meteorologist Ed Piotrowski with WPDE, the Sun News’ media partner, also noted in a Facebook post that wind impact will depend on how close the system is to the coast and how much shear and dry air weaken the storm. The worst of the wind would be over the ocean and it’s likely the area wouldn’t experience hurricane-force winds, he said.
Piotrowski added this storm system will be nothing like Hurricanes Matthew and Florence.
“While the exact track of this system is not known yet, I can say with high confidence that we will not have a repeat of those two hurricanes. This forecast is based on the current track of Isaias,” Piotrowski said Friday afternoon. “Obviously, minor flooding would be possible, but nothing terribly serious.”
11 a.m. Storm Update
The track for Hurricane Isaias has shifted slightly west, gradually increasing the likelihood the Myrtle Beach area could be impacted by the storm, according to the National Weather Service. Due to the storms track nudging west and moving slightly slower, the area could see the storm close to or over the Carolina coastline on Monday.
However, it is not unlikely the storm could still shift east, resulting in far fewer local impacts, forecasters say.
Currently, forecasters still predict impacts are likely for the Carolinas, but the magnitude of those impacts is still unknown, especially in regard to winds, surge and rainfall, Meteorologist Mark Willis with NWS in Wilmington, NC, said.
Despite the storms trajectory, there will be strong rip currents starting Friday night and lasting through early next week, followed by rough sea and winds, with the threat of tropical storm-force winds continuing to increase, especially along and off the coast.
Given the latest forecast, winds could impact the area with the possibility of downed trees and power outages as early as Sunday night but the threat is still relatively low.
As it stands, the storm is expected to strengthen over the next day or so before leveling off in intensity, forecasters predict.
9 a.m. Storm Update
Tropical Storm Isaias has strengthened into a hurricane, and is expected travel up the Atlantic coast this weekend — though it is still uncertain the impact the storm will have on the Grand Strand, according to the National Weather Service.
While Hurricane Isaias is forecast to upgrade to a Category 2 storm as it moves up the coast, it’s still too early to forecast the storms impact on the Myrtle Beach area. But forecasters warn that South Carolina’s coast could be hit directly and experience flooding.
The hurricane is expected to strengthen in the Bahamas and move toward the eastern coast of Florida, bringing tropical storm conditions as early as Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm will move north, with tropical storm-force winds, possibly hitting South Carolina as early as Sunday, according to the forecast.
While the Myrtle Beach area will experience some impacts of the storm, the magnitude of those impacts is unknown, especially in regard to winds, surge and rainfall, Meteorologist Mark Willis with NWS in Wilmington, NC, said.
A tornado threat remains low at this time given the uncertainty in the forecast track, but the storms impact will result in strong rip currents, followed by rough sea and winds by early weekend, forecasters predict. Forecasters add the potential for any river flooding remains low at this time, but could change based on the storms exact track.
The rains are expected to be heaviest overnight Sunday and into Monday morning, according to forecasters. The precipitation from the storm is predicted to continue through Tuesday, and 2-4 inches of rainfall is expected — with more possible in localized areas, especially coastal areas.
“Any subtle change in the track can drastically change the rainfall forecast and potential flood impacts,” Willis said. “A significant rainfall is not currently given the storm’s expected forward speed.”
As of Friday morning, the hurricane, pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs, has packed 80 mph winds and was forecast to bring hurricane conditions as it makes its way over the Bahamas. Isaias is moving northwest at 17 mph, with hurricane-force winds extending 45 mph.
Meteorologist Ed Piotrowski with WPDE, the Sun News’ news partner, said Thursday night that it’s still too soon to know precise impacts of the storm, adding one of three similarly measured scenarios will eventually happen.
Piotrowski released three scenarios in a social media update about what Isaias could mean for the region. The strongest scenario, with odds at 35 percent, is that Isaias would make a direct hit along the Grand Strand as a low-end hurricane, resulting in heavy rain, some damaging wind near the coats, a small tornado risk near the cost, and some storm surge.
“While this is the worst-case scenario, it WOULD not be a catastrophic hit, especially in terms of rain,” Piotrowski said in his post. “NOTHING like the rains from (Hurricane) Florence or Matthew.”
Another scenario, also measured at 35 percent, predicts Isaias turning out to sea before it hits the South Carolina coast.
The last impact at 30 percent has Isaias making landfall in Florida, staying over land and weakening as it moves through the Carolinas Monday, he said, resulting in heavy showers, non-damaging winds, a tornado risk, and minimal storm surge.
“The chances of each scenario are very similar right now but as we get closer and the forecast track becomes clear, these numbers will change for better or worse,” Piotrowski explained.
This story was originally published July 31, 2020 at 9:00 AM.
