Paris attacks could reshape U.S., S.C. presidential politics

Terrorist attacks that killed 129 people in Paris on Friday are driving the presidential debate, at least temporarily, political experts say.

Those attacks – claimed by Islamic State, a terrorist organization that S.C. residents cited in March as a top problem facing the nation – could thrust foreign policy and immigration to the top of the presidential debate.

Thursday marks the 100-day-countdown to the state’s Feb. 27 Democratic presidential primary. S.C. GOP voters will go to the polls a week earlier, on Feb. 20.

That gives South Carolinians a long time to decide what issues matter most to them, experts said, adding the holidays could shift voters’ focus to other issues. But the attacks have proven that “terrorism is less of an abstraction and it’s clearly an ongoing threat,” said Winthrop University political scientist Karen Kedrowski.

Economic issues usually drive campaigns, said Clemson University political scientist Dave Woodard said. But this campaign cycle could be different, he added.

“We’ve had very few elections that were about war and peace,” he said. “I’m wondering if foreign policy might play a larger role this year. It’s not something that’s going to go away.”

Polls nationally and one in South Carolina suggest that Woodard may be right.

In a March Winthrop Poll, 10.3 percent of S.C. residents ranked terrorism and ISIS — or the Islamic State — as the most important problem facing the nation, surpassing politicians and government, and the financial crisis for the first time.

CNN found that, nationally, nine in 10 Americans see ISIS as a serious threat, up from seven in 10 more than a year ago.

For some Palmetto State leaders and presidential candidates, the Paris terrorist attacks are a call for action for the United States to deploy ground troops to defeat the Islamic State.

After the attacks, U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham called on the United States and its Arab allies to form a regional army to go on the offensive against ISIS. The Seneca Republican, who is running for the GOP nomination for president, citing his foreign policy experience, told CNN the U.S.-led force would “pull the caliphate up by the roots.”

Speaking in Columbia on Tuesday, GOP presidential hopeful Jeb Bush called the conflict “the war of our times” and said he would “re-engage” the U.S. military in the region.

The Paris attacks have amplified ongoing GOP criticism of President Obama’s foreign policy. Democratic presidential candidates, who previously had focused their campaigns on issues at home, also have tacked toward foreign policy.

Then, the Paris attacks “cast a somber pall over the (Democratic) debate,” Winthrop’s Kedrowski said. “They had to start with foreign policy and homeland security, when they would have rather been talking about domestic policy.”

‘Fight ... in their backyard’

The Paris attacks seem to have given a lifeline to one presidential bid.

Last weekend, Graham, one of the most hawkish voices on U.S. national foreign policy, moved quickly on the national TV circuit, sharing his vision for a strong military response to the attacks. “We’re going to fight ISIL in their backyard, or we’re going to fight ISIL in our backyard,” the senator said.

The attacks also could impact the campaigns of political outsiders with no experience in elected office, such as Donald Trump and Ben Carson, and isolationists in the presidential fray.

A frequent target of Graham is U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who has stood out in the field as a critic of military spending and hawkish military proposals.

The Paris attacks also could impact the debate on immigration, another issue of growing importance to Republicans, concerned that terrorists will exploit weaknesses in U.S. border security to launch an attack.

A group of governors, including Gov. Nikki Haley, Tuesday joined Republican presidential candidates in calling on the U.S. Department of State not to resettle Syrian refugees in their states.

Meanwhile, the Democratic candidates say they back the United States accepting Syrian refugees if their backgrounds are vetted properly.

“It does seem like public opinion is with the Republicans in terms of closing the borders, closing off access to these refugees and having very stringent requirements for allowing them into the country,” said Kyle Kondik with the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Being tough on immigration “isn’t new for the GOP,” said Kondik. “The difference is that Trump is willing to go places with his rhetoric that other candidates have not been willing to go. As Trump moves the debate right, he moves other candidates with him.”

Democrats tack toward foreign policy

Speaking from the G-20 international summit in Turkey, Obama said it would be a “mistake” for U.S. ground troops to enter Syria and “temporarily clear out ISIL.”

“If you do not have local populations that are committed to inclusive governance and who are pushing back against ideological extremes, then they resurface,” Obama said.

On fighting ISIS, Democrats want to take a more “hands-off” approach and “want other countries to take the lead,” Kondik said.

For example, Saturday in Iowa, the Democratic candidates responded to ISIS and the Paris attacks by speaking in broad strokes about the need for U.S. leadership but not advocating for U.S. troops to be involved in the fighting.

Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton said she sees using U.S. ground troops as a last resort. But, she added, ISIS “cannot be contained. It must be defeated,” signaling a step away from Obama’s containment policies.

Defeating ISIS, she said, “cannot be an American fight, although American leadership is essential.”

Sanders called for U.S. leadership in ridding the planet of ISIS, but restated any U.S. involvement must come after a big buy-in from allied countries in the region.

Kondik of Virginia said Sanders’ tone has shifted since the Paris attack.

“Sanders tried to sound a bit more hawkish than he has in the past, but it didn’t come off as particularly credible to me,” Kondik said, adding, “It’s just not part of his DNA.”

Rising concerns about terrorism does not mean it is the only issue that voters — in S.C. and nationally — will care about when the 2016 elections roll around, Kondik noted.

“The broader question is: Does this stay important in American politics or does it fade in importance?”

‘Put boots on the ground’

Some S.C. residents say they want a strong U.S. military response to ISIS.

“The strategy has to be to destroy ISIS and show leadership in the world because people don’t have trust and confidence in us,” said retired Maj. Gen. James Livingston, a Medal of Honor recipient from Charleston. “Because of our delays and not taking action ... we walked ourselves into the only action (left to take) and that’s to put boots on the ground.”

Other South Carolinians say the United States should not rush to put its troops in harm’s way.

Bree Maxwell, the president of the S.C. Young Democrats and a military spouse, said the Paris attacks have not changed her mind about U.S. involvement in fighting ISIS.

The United States tends to “jump into a situation and create enemies,” she said, adding other countries should respond.

As for sending U.S. troops overseas to fight ISIS in large numbers, Jessica Reardon of Columbia said only something “really, really awful” happening in the United States would convince the public to support that move.

“It’s going to take something here for people to really get behind it again.”

This story was originally published November 18, 2015 at 7:46 AM with the headline "Paris attacks could reshape U.S., S.C. presidential politics."