A super El Niño could hit SC this year. What that means for weather, hurricane season

El Niño, a natural weather pattern, is likely to develop by next month, and it could become much stronger than usual. Meteorologists are calling it a “super” El Niño, which may significantly affect global weather patterns.

It’s been a couple of years since the last El Niño, which occurred in 2023, and combined with human-fueled climate change, it created one of the hottest summers ever recorded.

While forecasts are less accurate this early in the year, the odds of El Niño forming are increasing due to large amounts of heat in the subsurface ocean, according to a report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains uncertain, with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be “strong” between October and December.

Here’s what you should know about the weather pattern and how it might affect South Carolina:

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural climate event that typically occurs in two to seven years. It’s characterized by the warming of sea surface patterns in the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean, which disrupts normal winds and pushes warm water eastward toward the west coast of the Americas.

The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. It can have global impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems and economies, the NOAA said.

El Niño is expected to develop in the next month and will persist through at least the end of 2026.

A super El Niño is a more intense version of the weather event, and it will likely occur if the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific become significantly warmer than average, typically exceeding around 2 degrees Celsius.

They’re nothing new, but are super rare. An extremely strong El Niño occurs around every 10 to 20 years.

How will it affect SC weather?

The change in water temperature causes areas in the northern U.S. and Canada to be drier and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, residents can expect wetter weather and increased flooding.

According to the National Weather Service, El Niño can have positive and negative impacts on the Southeast’s weather:

• El Niño has been linked to reductions in the Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased vertical wind shear
• El Niño generally brings above average precipitation to the Southeast during the summer.
• Reduced risk of wildfires
• Higher risk of flooding
• Increased storminess across the southern U.S. increases the threat of severe weather during El Niño winters

A super El Niño will intensify these impacts and will likely lead to a much wetter and cooler season for the rest of the year until it lessens, potentially breaking SC’s long and intense drought. The Southeast’s hurricane season should also be much quieter than normal.

This story was originally published April 8, 2026 at 6:00 AM with the headline "A super El Niño could hit SC this year. What that means for weather, hurricane season."