This is the weather SC faces from potential Tropical Storm Gabrielle forming in the Atlantic

A disturbance headed northwest across the Atlantic has a 90% chance of developing into Tropical Storm Gabrielle by Thursday morning. Currently churning between the African West Coast and the Windward Islands, the area of showers and thunderstorms is moving 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.

Although it’s too early to confidently predict the potential storm’s path, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Jordan Baker, ensemble prediction models currently forecast that the storm would likely stay off the coast of South Carolina.

“At this point, if it develops, it would go toward the northwest, but all ensembles have it curving out to sea, if it does develop,” Baker said. “So, as of right now, we’re not really concerned about a threat to the U.S. East Coast.”

A curving storm path

Tropical storm systems headed northwest toward the East Coast sometimes turn northeast and curve off the coast due to something called the Beta effect.

“Basically, weather patterns over the U.S. and over the Atlantic kind of dictate where these storms go, so given all the cool air we’ve had recently, there’s this trough over the eastern U.S., and that’s pretty much what’s keeping everything offshore at this stage,” Baker said.

Potential Tropical Storm Gabrielle impacts in SC

The National Weather Service will issue an official forecast with a more detailed prediction timeline if the disturbance officially develops into a tropical storm. As of Tuesday morning, there’s a 90% of formation by Thursday morning.

If a tropical storm does form, at this point it’s unlikely to make landfall with storm winds and rains in South Carolina. However, it could strike South Carolina with coastal impacts. According to Baker, if potential Tropical Storm Gabrielle curves off the coast and remains in the Atlantic, it could generate waves and dangerous rip currents on South Carolina beaches.

Another tropical disturbance

Besides the system in the central tropical Atlantic, which will likely develop into Tropical Storm Gabrielle, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring another disturbance with a low chance of formation.

A tropical wave producing storms near the Guinea-Bissau coast is moving west at 15 to 20 mph. Current predictions say there’s almost no chance it could form a tropical storm in the next two days, but there’s a 20% chance one could develop over the course of a week.

This story was originally published September 16, 2025 at 10:45 AM.