With El Niño developing, here’s what it could mean for SC weather, NOAA predicts
South Carolina might have more rain but a calmer hurricane season because of El Niño this year, weather experts say.
Earth has been placed under an El Niño watch, following the development of warmer-than-normal waters in eastern Pacific waters around the equator in recent months. According to the National Weather Service, there is currently a 62% chance of El Niño developing from May to July and an 80% chance of the weather pattern developing by the fall.
In the Pacific Ocean under normal conditions, trade winds blow west along the equator and take warm water from South America toward Asia. Cold water then rises from the depths of the ocean to replace that warmer water.
However, during El Niño, those trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed back east to the west coast of the Americas, significantly impacting weather as a result, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration states.
How might El Niño impact South Carolina?
According to the NWS, El Niño typically means wetter conditions across South Carolina and the Southeast in general during the winter. That could mean more stormy weather and potential flooding.
However, the extra rainfall from El Niño can vary drastically geographically in South Carolina, a study from the S.C. State Climatology Office at the S.C. Department of Natural Resources shows.
The 2015 study, which measured rainfall in the state over several decades, shows that, for instance, Charleston has an average 47% increase in rainfall during strong El Niño winters and a 15% average increase during moderate to weak El Niño winters. Meanwhile, Columbia has an average 27% jump in rain during strong El Niño winters and an 18% increase during moderate to weak El Niño winters.
Overall across the state, there’s a 23% to 56% increase in precipitation during strong El Niño winters, the study shows.
Hurricanes
An upside to El Niño is the possibility of a weaker hurricane season.
“Simply put, El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin,” NOAA states.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and lasts through November. Still, the occurrence of El Niño in no way means South Carolina is completely safe from hurricanes this year, experts warn.
Colorado State University researchers have released their early forecast for hurricane season 2023, predicting 13 named storms for the season this year.
What about La Niña?
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño and has impacted South Carolina the last few years. The weather pattern, which faded in March, tends to worsen hurricane seasons for South Carolina and the Southeast.
This story was originally published May 5, 2023 at 5:30 AM with the headline "With El Niño developing, here’s what it could mean for SC weather, NOAA predicts."
