Going to a New Year’s Eve party in SC? This tool lets you calculate the COVID risk

It’s no fun ringing in the New Year alone, even if it’s the safest course of action during a pandemic — but the good news is not all gatherings are as risky as others.

For South Carolinians hoping to pop the champagne with friends, or family living elsewhere, it can’t hurt to know: What are the odds of running into somebody with COVID-19?

A new online tool created by the Georgia Institute of Technology can tell you, based on where the shindig you’re hosting or heading to is located, and how many people will be in attendance.

For example, there’s a 28% chance that at least one person attending a 10-person get-together in Lexington County will have COVID-19.

Invite over 50 friends and then there’s an 80% chance one of them is infected.

Each person added increases the odds of coming into contact with the coronavirus.

Head downtown where there’s a crowd of 500 gathered and it’s just about guaranteed somebody’s got the virus — but that’ll be the case almost anywhere in the country, not just Lexington County.

Still, Lexington is one of the riskier spots to gather in the Palmetto State.

Greenville is worse still. There’s a 37% risk with a group of 10 — the smallest gathering measurable with the risk assessment tool. Add five more people and there’s a 50/50 shot. At a gathering of 50, the risk is 90%.

New Year’s Eve should be safer in Beaufort County, according to the tool, where a 10-person gathering has a 19% chance, and a 66% chance if there’s 50 attendees.

In Horry County, odds are 74% that COVID will be an uninvited guest at a 50-person event, lowering to 24% if there are 10 people.

Some other highlights

• The highest risk areas are concentrated mostly Upstate, and Pickens County boasts the greatest risk of all counties in the state, with a 40% chance of COVID in a group of 10, and a 92% chance among 50. The southeastern corner of the state also rated risky, ranging from 30% to 40% odds for 10-person gatherings — with the exception of Horry County, at 24%.
• By and large, things are looking better in the Lowcountry than anywhere else in the Palmetto State, and Berkeley County poses the lowest risk to New Year’s revelers. Parties of 10 carry a 14% risk, and a there’s a 52% chance of one in a group of 50 having COVID-19. Jasper, Charleston and Allendale counties follow close behind, with risk percentages peaking at 56% for crowds of 50 people, and 15% for 10.

Precautions still needed

The Georgia Institute of Technology researchers behind the tool partnered with Stanford University, RStudio, and the Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory, to analyze COVID testing across the U.S. From there, they were able to estimate the likelihood of someone being COVID positive, while assuming the number of total cases were five times greater than reported — an assumption the researchers argue provides a more accurate and helpful tool.

“Precisely because of under-testing and the risk of exposure and infection, these risk calculations provide further support for the ongoing need for social distancing and protective measures,” researchers said. “Such precautions are still needed even in small events, given the large number of circulating cases.”

Wednesday, Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin and local hospital leaders pleaded with the public to stay home on New Year’s Eve, warning that with coronavirus activity already surging statewide, the holiday could easily become a spreader event, The State reported.

“It’s our turn to say goodbye to the most difficult year many of us could imagine,” Benjamin said. “We can do it safely or we can do it recklessly. I would encourage you, let’s do it safely.”

Hospitalizations soar in SC

The same day, COVID hospitalizations reached 2,001 in South Carolina, the highest total ever since the pandemic began.

Officials also reported a 31% positivity rate for COVID-19 testing, which Prisma Chief Clinical Officer Dr. Rick Scott called, “a five alarm fire.”

“The greatest sacrifice we can make right now, this week, is really a small one,” Scott said. “That’s to keep your distance and don’t let New Year’s Eve become a spreader event. I can’t tell you how important that is, as a physician leader.”

This story was originally published December 30, 2020 at 7:54 PM with the headline "Going to a New Year’s Eve party in SC? This tool lets you calculate the COVID risk."