Republicans keep majority in NC legislature as Democratic incumbents lose

The state legislature will keep its current balance of power, as Republicans won enough seats to preserve their majorities in the House and Senate — though they didn’t win enough for a veto-proof majority.

Democrats didn’t succeed in flipping GOP-held seats and even had a few incumbents lose.

The Republican leaders of the legislature, House Speaker Tim Moore and Senate leader Phil Berger, both declared victory late Tuesday night.

If remaining absentee ballots don’t change the outcome of any races, Democrats will have a net gain of one Senate seat — leaving the chamber with 28 Republicans and 22 Democrats. And Republicans will add four seats to their House majority, leaving that chamber with 69 Republicans and 51 Democrats.

Both margins would still be short of a veto-proof majority, paving the way for divided power to continue with Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper winning a second term on Tuesday.

Democrats needed a net gain of six House seats and five Senate seats to win a majority. They were hoping to defeat Republican incumbents in competitive suburban and rural districts, mostly in and around the Triad, Charlotte and Eastern North Carolina. And they targeted a few open seats where a Republican incumbent declined to seek another term.

But in addition to flipping GOP-held seats, Democrats needed to avoid defeats in the districts they flipped in 2018. Several of those Democratic incumbents faced well-funded challengers.

Democratic incumbents Reps. Scott Brewer of Rockingham, Joe Sam Queen of Waynesville, Ray Russell of Boone, Sydney Batch of Wake County and Christy Clark of Mecklenburg County all lost to Republican challengers in races called by The Associated Press.

And Republicans had a good night in Cumberland County. GOP Rep. John Szoka had a narrow lead with all precincts reporting, and Republican Diane Wheatley garnered 52% of the vote for the seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Elmer Floyd, who lost his primary in March.

There were some bright spots for Democrats. Rep. Perrin Jones, a Greenville Republican, had only 49% against Democrat Brian Farkas with all precincts reporting.

Democratic challenger Ricky Hurtado led incumbent Republican Rep. Stephen Ross in Alamance County by 1 percentage point with all precincts in. Hurtado would likely be the only Latino in the legislature if he’s elected.

But House Democrats were resigned Tuesday night, while Moore and Republicans celebrated.

“Voters returning a strong Republican majority to the North Carolina House of Representatives tonight reflects the powerful momentum behind policies that promote economic prosperity, educational achievement, and safety for families,” Moore said in a statement.

“I’d say the preliminary returns do not look very hopeful,” House Democratic Leader Darren Jackson said Tuesday night. “The seats we had hoped to pick up I don’t think we’re going to pick up. Trump at the top of the ticket was too much to overcome in those areas.”

Republican Erin Paré’s win over Batch in southern Wake County was a rare bright spot in a county where Democrats won other contests.

“It was a really hard-fought campaign for all sides,” Paré said. “I think it just shows that hopefully we can all come together after this big competition and get some big things done.”

Battleground NC Senate races

Little will change in the Senate’s balance of power, although the margins were close in several of the most competitive races. Republicans led with between 53% and 55% of the vote in four races that Democrats targeted, with Sen. Joyce Krawiec holding on to her seat and Sen. Bob Steinburg leading.

And in the Wilmington area, former Republican Sen. Michael Lee appeared poised to retake the seat he lost to Democratic Sen. Harper Peterson in 2018. Lee led by 1 point with all precincts reporting.

Berger issued a news release on the results, saying that “for the sixth consecutive election, voters made a clear choice in support of the Republican platform of low taxes, expanded school choice, and large investments in education and teacher pay.”

But Sen. Jay Chaudhuri, a Raleigh Democrat, stressed that the results aren’t final yet. “We just want to be patient with the process and make sure we count every vote,” he said late Tuesday. “We want to let the process work itself out.”

In a hotly contested Triad race, Republican Amy Galey had 52% over Democrat J.D. Wooten, and she told The News & Observer that she’s “cautiously optimistic” about a win.

This year’s legislative races took place in districts that were redrawn in 2019 through court-ordered redistricting. A panel of judges ruled that certain House and Senate districts, including several in Wake, Mecklenburg and Guilford counties, were unconstitutional gerrymanders.

The redrawn districts made it likely that Democrats would pick up an additional Senate seat in Wake and Mecklenburg, and the incumbents in those districts, Republican Sens. John Alexander and Rob Bryan, decided not to run for reelection. In the House, redistricting gave Democrats a better shot at flipping the Pitt County district represented by Jones, but several other House districts currently held by Democrats became more competitive for Republicans.

Even with the district changes, Democrats argued that the overall legislative map in North Carolina remained a gerrymander favoring Republicans, pointing to analysis that showed if statewide votes for House and Senate were split 50-50 between the parties, Republicans would still keep a majority in both chambers.

A decade of Republican control

Republicans have controlled the General Assembly since winning the majority during 2010’s Tea Party wave election, and that’s put them in charge of drawing legislative and congressional maps since 2011.

GOP control of the legislature has resulted in major corporate and personal income tax cuts, as well as conservative shifts on social policy ranging from abortion to LGBT rights. Republican lawmakers have limited Cooper’s ability to enact his policy agenda in his first term, which is one reason Democrats have spent millions on legislative races this year.

Democrats had hoped to win majorities that would allow them to expand Medicaid health care coverage to hundreds of thousands of people. That’s a key priority for Cooper, who wasn’t able to get expansion passed thanks to Republican objections about the potential cost of the program.

The Medicaid issue is one reason for 2019’s budget stalemate, in which Cooper vetoed Republicans’ state budget proposal, and the two sides never reached a compromise. North Carolina has been operating instead under a modified version of the budget adopted in 2018, which means less spending than Cooper sought.

Control of the legislature and the governor’s mansion would give Democrats an easy path to enact their preferred budget as early as January.

But if the current results hold, with Democrats falling short of a majority and Republicans not regaining a supermajority, expect the stalemate to continue. A Republican-dominated legislature would likely face more vetoes in 2021.

Republicans, including a national group, have spent big to defend their legislative majorities and keep control of the redistricting process next year.

Shadowy groups largely funded by out-of-state business interests spent more than $10 million between July and mid-October to help keep a Republican majority in the state legislature. The groups have made big investments in TV ads and mailers backing GOP candidates and attacking Democrats in five of the most competitive Senate races and four House races.

This story was originally published November 3, 2020 at 8:56 PM with the headline "Republicans keep majority in NC legislature as Democratic incumbents lose."