As polls show tightening race, Tillis and Cunningham take different paths
The most expensive Senate race in U.S. history and one that could determine which party controls the chamber in January is down to its final week with polls tightening and North Carolina’s top two candidates employing very different approaches to the final days.
Incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis announced a blitz of public campaign events across the state in the final days, appearing with high-profile Republican surrogates, including Vice President Mike Pence, and his wife.
Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham is meeting voters across the state but has not announced any campaign events that are open to the media. It’s largely the strategy he and his campaign have used since allegations of marital infidelity first surfaced at the beginning of the month. He has not taken questions from the media since Oct. 9.
Tillis, campaigning with Pence in Greensboro on Tuesday afternoon, attacked Cunningham over the scandal, a consistent theme for the Tillis in the final month of the race.
“I’m here with my girlfriend, who also happens to be my wife,” Tillis joked. Of Cunningham, he said: “He’s broken our trust. He’s running a campaign of trust and honor. Now we know he’s not been faithful to his family and to the voters and he’s not been honorable to the very uniform that he wears.”
Cunningham, a lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve, faces an investigation by the Army after a California woman, the wife of an injured military veteran, said she and Cunningham had an affair.
“The best case is he’s going to get a letter of reprimand. The worst case is we have somebody running for the Senate that could be brought up on court martial charges,” Tillis said.
His campaign is currently running an ad featuring veterans being critical of Cunningham over the affair. Tillis has run 100% negative ads over the last two weeks, according to a study by the Wesleyan Media Project.
Closing stretch
Tillis voted to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday night. The Senate is not scheduled to return until after the election, freeing Tillis and other Republicans facing tough reelection bids to hit the trail.
Tillis was scheduled for two events with Pence on Tuesday and plans to campaign with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador Nikki Halley later this week.
“It’s a smart strategy for Sen. Tillis because Republicans will outperform Democrats on Election Day. They are working to really rev up the base vote and have them turn out,” said Brad Crone, president of a Raleigh-based public affairs and political consulting firm who was press secretary for former Republican Sen. Lauch Faircloth.
Cunningham has not made public appearances with Democratic candidates visiting the state, including during recent visits by presidential nominee Joe Biden and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
Cunningham appeared on a health care video call last week with several Democratic candidates, including Attorney General Josh Stein and congressional candidate Pat Timmons-Goodson.
Cunningham has made campaign appearances around the state, according to photos he’s posted on Twitter and social media. On Monday, he posted photos of himself in Lumberton, including at a candy store. On Sunday, he was in Fayetteville at an early voting site. He was in Rowan County on Saturday.
Many candidates have eschewed large gatherings during the campaign because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Cunningham’s final two television ads of the campaign are positive ads — one focused on his military service that includes two tours overseas and the other on coming back from the coronavirus stronger as a nation.
He has also stuck to attacks against Tillis’ health care record, hitting him on wanting to strike down the Affordable Care Act during the coronavirus pandemic.
“Cunningham has been very effective putting Tillis into a corner on health care in particular and pharmaceutical drug pricing in general,” Crone said.
Cunningham has been critical of Tillis and the Republican-controlled Senate for not passing another COVID-19 relief package, especially as they worked quickly to confirm Barrett to the court.
Both the Senate and House have passed their own packages, but despite months of negotiations between the Democratic-controlled House and the Trump administration, no deal has been struck.
Tillis said in August that “it would be devastating” to not pass more relief.
“Facing a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, Senator Tillis is prioritizing his own political interests ahead of working to secure the COVID relief we badly need. North Carolinians deserve leadership in Washington who will fight until the job is done, and I’m asking voters to put me in this fight,” Cunningham said in a statement.
North Carolina reported its second highest single day of hospitalizations due to COVID on Tuesday. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, who previously represented far Western North Carolina in the U.S. House, said Sunday that “we are not going to control the pandemic.”
Tillis tested positive for the coronavirus earlier this month after attending an event at the White House.
“I’ve never seen a race like this, a Senate race where you had two Senate candidates with self-inflicted wounds both trying to make it to the final day with very compelling closing arguments on both sides,” Crone said.
State of the race
Cunningham has led in polling throughout the summer and fall, but recent surveys have shown a tightening race. Tillis’ support has risen from the low-40s to the mid-40s, according to polling averages, while Cunningham’s numbers have stayed steady.
Libertarian Shannon Bray and Constitution Party candidate Kevin E. Hayes are also on the ballot.
More than 3.4 million North Carolina voters have already cast their ballot as of Tuesday afternoon, according to the state board of elections.
“I’ve likened it to playing the Four Corners, running out the clock and hoping the score holds,” said Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper, comparing the Cunningham strategy to one pioneered by former UNC basketball coach Dean Smith.
“Candidates play the hand they’ve been dealt, or in this case that they’ve dealt themselves. This is probably the best hand Cunningham has to play. Ride the tide of what appears to be a good year for Democrats and what was, not a comfortable but, a healthy lead before the story broke.”
Pence, touting the Trump administration’s accomplishments in the federal judiciary and on the Supreme Court, called on supporters in Greensboro to back Tillis, too, by sending him to the Senate for six more years.
“His reelection is every bit as important as the president’s,” Pence said.
For more North Carolina government and politics news, listen to the Domecast politics podcast from The News & Observer and the NC Insider. You can find it on Megaphone, Apple Podcasts, iHeartRadio, Stitcher or wherever you get your podcasts.
This story was originally published October 27, 2020 at 3:02 PM with the headline "As polls show tightening race, Tillis and Cunningham take different paths."
