What’s at stake when SC voters decide historic US Senate race
Two years ago, the South Carolina Democratic Party sent a message to party loyalists that when President Donald Trump was up for reelection in 2020, the party was going to attempt to make history.
The target? Veteran GOP incumbent U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Trump critic turned staunch ally who was under fire from women’s groups and Democrats for his fierce defense of then U.S. Supreme Court justice nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
When Jaime Harrison, the first Black chairman of the state’s Democratic Party, met with State House Democrats months later to pitch his candidacy, Democrats had every reason to be skeptical: Like lambs to the slaughter, Democrats have tried to run for statewide office and failed for more than a decade in the GOP-controlled state.
But flash forward to this month and Harrison has defied odds, smashing national Senate fundraising records — even as Graham has posted his own spectacular fundraising hauls again and again — competing in the polls and trying to capitalize on what he sees as the failures of the Trump administration and allies such as Graham to handle the coronavirus pandemic and other long-standing challenges facing South Carolinians.
And now, with Election Day just two days away, South Carolina is on the verge of answering an important question:
Will the state wake up Wednesday morning having elected a newcomer to the Senate, putting faith in someone who’s never held office but who has promised to put an end to partisan bickering and focus on issues facing South Carolinians? Or will voters stick with Graham, sending the influential veteran of D.C. politics, who’s helped the state maintain its high profile in Washington, back to the Capitol for a fourth six-year term?
Harrison’s victory also would mean South Carolina would have two Black senators serving at the same time, a remarkable turn in narrative for the state that started the Civil War. And it also would show that the Barack Obama path of putting together a coalition that includes white voters for a Black candidate for a major office can be done in the South, said Todd Shaw a political science professor at the University of South Carolina.
“(Harrison) speaks to this notion of a new South in his campaign,” Shaw said. “Yes, the demographic changes in the South have finally resulted in electoral and political changes at the state level. Stacey Abrams’ gubernatorial campaign in Georgia and Andrew Gillum gubernatorial campaign in Florida got close. If Harrison were to win he would have proven that strategy to be workable.”
State Rep. Gilda Cobb-Hunter, D-Orangeburg, put it more succinctly.
“It would be very significant and beyond historic,” Cobb-Hunter said. “Any benefits, one way or the other, remain to be seen.”
What’s at stake to voters
No matter the side of the aisle, South Carolina voters say the 2020 election poses higher stakes than ever. For some GOP voters, Tuesday’s outcome could threaten their basic freedoms and way of life, underscoring the divisiveness in the current political climate.
“I firmly believe this is the effort, the big effort by what I call rats, because that’s actually in the name, Democrats, ... to actually facilitate a total takeover of our country,” said lifelong GOP voter Brian Austin, a 67-year-old from North Augusta, told The State Wednesday at a local Republican Party stop.
Mary Stanford, 67, of Aiken, expressed similar fears.
“I feel like our whole way of life will change if we do not have Trump back in there,” she said.
Other Democratic voters told The State they’re most concerned about health care, the stability of Social Security and issues facing many Americans such as piling up student loan debt.
“I want to feel safe and secure. I want to make sure that my student loans that I have, a majority is taken care of,” said Democratic voter Quadrey Reeves, 36, of Columbia, who said he has $68,000 in student loan debt. “I want to make sure that I have Social Security, and a retirement plan when that age time comes for me. I want to make sure that my people in my family have (health care) coverage because right now, ... I can relate to people who currently have pre-existing conditions. If we don’t vote blue, all these things can be taken from us.”
Republicans who support Graham say the state has a lot to lose if S.C. voters send the senator packing.
South Carolina’s senior senator, Graham was first elected in 2002, succeeding longtime Republican U.S. Sen. Strom Thurmond. But even before then, Graham had established himself as a force in Washington. In 1999, as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, Graham was an impeachment manager when the House impeached Democratic President Bill Clinton.
Over the years, Graham also has solidified his reputation as a close friend and advocate to pro-military communities in the state and has climbed his way to important leadership roles. This month, as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Graham facilitated the quick confirmation of Trump’s Supreme Court justice nominee, Amy Coney Barrett.
The Judiciary Committee’s hearings lasted four days and ended with a vote exclusively by Republicans (Democrats boycotted the vote). Barrett was sworn in last week. Graham and Vice President Mike Pence stumped together in Greenville one day later to celebrate the victory before S.C. voters.
“I think he’s been doing very well,” said Stanford, a retiree from Aiken. “He’s done wonderful. He got this last deal done with the justice. He hasn’t been able to do a whole lot to help his own campaign, but he has really hung in there and helped Trump do a lot of stuff here. I feel like he’s going to do fine.”
While Graham has become much more partisan in recent years, for much of his career, he was seen as a senator willing to work across the aisle, a point of contention within his own party.
“Sen. Graham, in the past, has reached across the aisle, he has his conservative values, but he knows everybody can’t have it their way all the time,” said Christie Dixon, 51, of Charleston, who plans to vote for the senator. “And so there’s some give and take.”
If the state selects Graham and the Republicans keep their majority in the Senate, South Carolina would keep its seniority in the upper chamber. And Graham, who has hinted at becoming the budget committee chairman, would take the helm of one of the most powerful committees.
Should Harrison, an Orangeburg native who attended Yale University and Georgetown Law School, succeed Graham, he would take the seat held by a line of leaders whose legacies have roots in the state’s racist past: such as Thurmond, who once broke from the then-conservative Democratic Party to run for president as a segregationist, and “Pitchfork” Ben Tillman and John C. Calhoun, who both defended slavery and white supremacy.
Harrison would join U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, a Black Republican who made history in South Carolina when he became the first African American senator since Reconstruction to represent a southern state.
Harrison would be a big bet for S.C. voters — he ‘s never held public office — but he does have experience working at the Capitol, first as an aide to U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn and later as a lobbyist. And as state party chairman, Harrison also was instrumental in launching a fellowship aimed at encouraging Democrats to run for office while providing training for them on leadership and how to run campaigns.
It’s a bet some voters are willing to take.
“I’ve got serious issues with Lindsey Graham,” said Nicholas Christopher, 55, of Myrtle Beach. “I wouldn’t have thought to vote for him in the first place. I’d hate to say something like, ‘Anyone but Lindsey Graham’ ... because that’s belittling Jamie Harrison. Jaime Harrison is extremely intelligent, open minded and genuine.”
Having seniority in Congress has been key to South Carolina having a disproportionate amount of influence in the country, said Dave Woodard, a retired political science professor at Clemson University.
“Historically in the South that’s a big deal, because that’s basically the only way the South survived for 100 years,” Woodard said. “Sending congressmen and senators back to Washington, year after year after year until they died.”
The money
A year ago, no political observers were predicting the U.S. Senate race would be considered a toss up between Graham and Harrison.
In 2019, when Harrison pitched his bid to Democratic lawmakers, they expressed support for him. But privately some told The State he didn’t have a chance.
But Harrison, an associate chairman of the Democratic National Committee, has been able to rake in the cash.
He has raised $108 million through mid-October, and set an all time record for a Senate candidate in the country.
Meanwhile, Graham has raised $74 million this cycle, and his third quarter haul of $28 million is a record for Republicans running for a Senate seat.
Both campaigns have poured the $182 million they’ve raised into getting their message out across the state. But money doesn’t always translate into votes.
“Just go ask President Tom Steyer or President Bloomberg — they could tell you,” Drew McKissick, chairman of the S.C. Republican Party, told reporters this month. “No matter how much you spend, people have to be willing to buy what you’re selling.”
The COVID-19 campaign
Both candidates have worked hard to shore up their bases.
Graham, who once was censured by his own party over his bipartisan work on immigration and climate change, has closely aligned himself with Trump, while portraying Harrison as a candidate who will push the agenda of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer.
Trying to capture moderate voters, Harrison has tried to pitch himself as someone who would put South Carolina first and has attempted to steer clear of the hyper-partisan rhetoric. He’s also used the COVID-19 pandemic — which upended the traditional campaign playbook — to draw a stark contrast between the campaigns.
The pandemic became a central part of Harrison’s campaign, which turned almost entirely online and on the airwaves with virtual events and interviews from his house. In the last week of campaigning, Harrison met with voters from a distance at drive-in rallies.
And the virus has hit close to home for Harrison, whose aunt was among those to die of the disease.
Harrison again brought the plexiglass shield to Friday’s debate. In contrast, Graham attended a 2,200 person rally with Vice President Pence on Tuesday in Greenville, days after members of Pence’s staff tested positive for COVID-19.
During most of the campaign, Graham, who also held virtual gatherings, attended in-person events where attendance was capped and attendees were required to wear masks to limit risk of spreading the disease.
But as the election comes to a close, they’re both on the campaign trail. Both Graham and Harrison started their final blitzes around the state on Saturday.
Harrison had a bus tour on Saturday in the Upstate concluding with a drive-in rally in Anderson hoping to narrow margins in a more conservative part of the state.
Graham visited the PeeDee region, the Grand Strand and Charleston, in an effort to rev up the Republican vote.
Both will continue campaigning through Monday.
The playbook
Beyond COVID-19, the race has centered on a few key tensions between Graham and Harrison.
One became explosive during their final debate Friday night. Harrison is running ads promoting Constitution Party nominee Bill Bledsoe in an effort that could siphon conservative votes away from Graham. Bledsoe dropped out of the race and endorsed Graham, but his name remains on the ballot.
While Graham accused Harrison of trying to trick conservative voters into voting for Bledsoe, effectively helping Harrison, Harrison accused Graham of falsely tying him to Democratic leadership and fearmongering, trying to scare S.C. voters into seeing Democratic leader Pelosi as a monster hiding under the bed.
In rallying the conservative base of the Republican Party, Graham has warned of a socialist takeover if Democrats win the White House and control both chambers of Congress, as well as fear of police departments losing funding, and free health care for undocumented immigrants. Harrison has challenged Graham on his ever shifting positions, such as the senator’s previous harsh criticism of Trump when Graham sought the GOP nomination for president four years ago.
Harrison also hit Graham repeatedly for moving forward with filling a Supreme Court seat after he said in 2016 and in 2018 that if an opening occurred during the last year of a presidential term.
Graham’s supporters say they back him for his role in the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices Neil Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett.
“I’ve known Lindsey Graham form many years,” said Darren Sweet, 56, of Summerville. “The Kavanaugh hearing was the motivational factor for me.”
But Graham also tends to poll lower than Trump in the state, a sign some conservative voters in the state are hesitant to support Graham, possibly helping Harrison.
James Lollis, 44, of Greer, is a Trump supporter who brought his two children to Pence’s rally in Greenville on Tuesday. Lollis said he planned to vote for Graham, even though he wouldn’t have been Lollis’ first choice.
“I feel like Graham’s a little wishy-washy sometimes,” Lollis said. “(He) leans a little more towards the middle than I wish he would. But I would rather ... have him than Harrison.”
McClatchyDC reporter Ben Wieder contributed to this article.
This story was originally published November 1, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "What’s at stake when SC voters decide historic US Senate race."
