Which states are ones to watch on election night? These 3 are key, GOP pollster says
Strategists and pundits are mapping potential paths to victory for President Donald Trump and Democratic rival Joe Biden, but one pollster says it all comes down to three states.
Frank Luntz, a veteran Republican pollster, advises election night viewers to keep a close eye on North Carolina, Florida and Ohio, CNBC reports.
“If Donald Trump wins all three of them, he’s going to be in this,” Luntz said Tuesday, the network reported. “If Biden wins even one of those three, it’s Biden’s presidency.”
Along with the electoral map makeup, Luntz said North Carolina, Florida and Ohio also are key because they are likely to post results by Wednesday morning, while other key states, including Pennsylvania, may take several more days, CNBC reported.
In particular, if Trump doesn’t win Florida, where Biden has a slight polling lead, his path to victory becomes much more difficult, the Associated Press reported.
Polling site FiveThirtyEight puts Trump’s chances of winning the election at 1 in 100 if he loses Florida, while Biden’s chances fall from 89 in 100 to 66 in 100 if he loses the state.
Pennsylvania, with 20 electoral votes, also could be a deciding factor in the presidential election, says Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. Biden holds a polling lead over Trump in the state.
“Without Pennsylvania, Biden does have some paths to victory, but there’s no one alternative state he can feel especially secure about,” Silver wrote.
The site gives Pennsylvania a 36.5% chance of delivering the deciding votes in the Electoral College.
Other key states to watch include Georgia, which hasn’t gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since the 1990s, and Michigan, a traditionally Democratic state that went for Trump in 2016, according to the Associated Press.
Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire and Texas are other potential battleground states to watch, USA Today reported.
This story was originally published November 3, 2020 at 3:15 PM with the headline "Which states are ones to watch on election night? These 3 are key, GOP pollster says."