Tired of losing, SC Democrats think they’ve got a winning combo: Cash and candidates
More than 20 years ago, South Carolina Democrats did what has been impossible since then: they beat Republican incumbent David Beasley to win back the governor’s office, taking a couple of constitutional statewide offices and legislative seats with them.
The big win for Democrats in 1998 was fueled by aggressive fundraising campaigns by Democratic gubernatorial victor Jim Hodges and the late U.S. Sen. Fritz Hollings. Also aiding Democrats that year, Beasley was dogged by controversies over his support for removing the Confederate flag from the State House dome, which angered his base, and his initial opposition to a statewide lottery, which Hodges was pushing as a central part of his campaign. Attack ads featuring a ficticious “Bubba” from Georgia painted Beasley as a flip-flopper whose lottery opposition just meant more money for Georgia lottery vendors.
“Gradually, people over the course of summer of 1998 realized that this was really a competitive race, and I think my opponent at the time didn’t take it as seriously as he should have,” Hodges recalled.
But Hodges lost four years later to Republican Mark Sanford, solidifying GOP control of the state. The last time Democrats won a statewide seat was in 2006, when Jim Rex was elected state superintendent of education, an office seen as the minority party’s last remaining statewide stronghold, until 2010 when a Republican was elected, turning the office red since then.
Now, in 2020, Democrats see another opening for reversing their party’s losing streak. Flush with cash, armed with a record-busting Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, and riding a shifting political tide in a coastal congressional district, the S.C. Democratic Party could be poised to do what it hasn’t done in years:
▪ Though recent polls have shifted in U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham’s favor, the Trump ally’s Democratic challenger, Jaime Harrison, has given Graham the contest of his political career and could flip the U.S. Senate seat if he picks up enough support.
▪ Democrats could hold on to the 1st Congressional District, a historically red seat that Democrats turned in 2018 with Joe Cunningham’s win.
▪ And, with a push from Harrison statewide and a win in the 1st District, plus record-breaking absentee ballot numbers, they could flip a handful of mostly Lowcountry legislative seats and are eyeing other races around the state, too.
Democrats say there is more evidence than ever to make them optimistic about their chances.
Polls show Harrison within striking distance of the incumbent as he eclipses Graham in fundraising, shattering records including for being the U.S. Senate candidate to raise the most money in a quarter — ever.
“The money is staggering. We had resources to run a race, but nothing like this,” Hodges said. “Those resources will be used to help Democratic candidates across the board. You’ll see some extraordinary efforts to focus on voter turnout and get people out on Election Day.”
Some political forecasters now rate the Senate seat, once safe for Republicans, as a “toss up.”
And a POLITICO report said Republicans are privately acknowledging that the 1st District seat is not shaping up in their favor. The outlet was first to publish an internal poll with Cunningham leading Republican Nancy Mace by 13 percentage points — 55% to 42%, respectively.
“They (Republicans) were not prepared for a Democratic Party, they weren’t prepared for a campaign that has been building an organization and a structure for the last two-and-a-half to three years to put our candidates in a position to win,” state party chairman Trav Robertson told The State last week.
“Because they believe after having controlled everything for so long, they believe that they’re going to win just by virtue of being a Republican.”
State House seats to watch
The energy Democrats have generated at the top of the ticket could boost down ballot races, allowing the minority party to expand its footprint across the state.
In the South Carolina State House, every one of the Legislature’s 170 House and Senate seats are up for reelection this year.
Breaking that down: There are 27 Republican and 19 Democratic-held seats in the Senate. There are 78 Republicans and 45 Democrats — plus one vacancy — in the House. Most of those lawmakers are going unchallenged, yet roughly 90 are facing challenges on Nov. 3.
But of those incumbents with opposition, only slightly more than a dozen have been identified as targets for either party. Democrats, specifically see many seats around the coast as competitive, particularly in Charleston County, which voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton. In 2008 and 2012, it went for Barack Obama. The county has logged enormous growth — a good sign for Democrats — but it also is part of a district that has shown that shifting politics and attitudes toward, in particular, President Donald Trump are having an impact on voter behavior.
For instance, Trump won the district in 2016 by 13 percentage points. However, in the most recent New York Times/Siena College Research Institute poll, the margin between Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the 1st District is shrinking — 47% to 44%. Another 6% of voters said they were undecided or refused to say.
Republicans acknowledge the change in voting behavior on the coast, but argue the rest of the state is not following suit.
“I don’t think it’s gone full blown left yet,” Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey, R-Edgefield, said about 1st District areas trending blue. “There are clearly competitive races in the Charleston area. That seems to be where the Democrats are focusing most of their efforts at flipping some seats in the Charleston area. But ... the rest of the state seems to be, with the exclusion or the exception of Richland County and a few other pockets here and there, ... just as solid, if not more solidly conservative.”
What races are at stake
With eyes on the Lowcountry, Senate Democrats have fielded challengers for three key GOP-held seats that went unchallenged in 2016.
▪ District 41, held by Sen. Sandy Senn, a one-term Charleston Republican, whose district includes parts of Dorchester County. Senn faces Democrat Sam Skardon, who has raised more than $176,000 this campaign cycle, trailing Senn’s more than $200,000 in contributions.
▪ District 43, held by Sen. Chip Campsen, a Republican whose district covers parts of Beaufort, Charleston and Colleton counties. He was elected to the Senate in 2004. He faces Democrat Richard Hricik, who has raised more than $144,000 this cycle, compared to Campsen’s more than $187,000.
▪ District 44, opened up by retiring Sen. Paul Campbell, whose district includes parts of Berkeley, Charleston and Dorchester counties. Running for that seat is Republican Brian Adams, a retired North Charleston police officer, who has raised more than $26,000 this election cycle. His Democratic challenger is Debbie Chatman Bryant, an associate dean for practice at the Medical University of South Carolina’s nursing school, who has raised more than $36,000.
Outside the coast in friendlier GOP territory, Senate Republicans have hopes of flipping two Upstate seats held by Democrats:
▪ District 10, held by Sen. Floyd Nicholson, the former mayor of Greenwood, who was elected to the Senate in 2008. Nicholson faces Republican Billy Garrett, a Greenwood attorney. Nicholson won his seat in 2016 by nearly 3 percentage points. He’s so far raised nearly $42,000 this cycle, according to his latest July fundraising report. Garrett has raised more than $95,000 that includes a $50,000 loan.
▪ District 11, held by Sen. Glenn Reese, one of the longest-serving senators coined the “doughnut man” in the upper chamber because he owns Krispy Kreme franchise locations. Reese faces GOP challenger Josh Kimbrell, a businessman and conservative Upstate radio host. Reese won his seat in 2016 by about 9 percentage points. Reese has raised more than $85,000 this cycle, according to his latest July campaign filing. Kimbrell has raised more than $78,000, of which $40,000 was a loan.
Republicans also are eyeing two Senate seats that will be more difficult to win from Democrats: Senate Minority Leader Nikki Setzler’s seat in Lexington County, whose district stretches into the north of Aiken, and Vincent Sheheen’s Kershaw district.
If Senate Democrats can hold on to their existing seats and pick up three more, they’ll still be in the minority, but a far more formidable one with 22 seats to the GOP’s 24.
Over in the House, Democrats are trying to cut into the GOP’s strong majority. They’re hoping their luck runs high as it did this summer, when Spencer Wetmore won by 20 percentage points in a special election to fill House District 115, vacated by former Republican Rep. Peter McCoy, R-Charleston, who left office to take a job as U.S. attorney for the state.
It was a seat that Trump won in 2016 and that McCoy won in 2018 by just 3 percentage points.
Wetmore faces Republican Josh Stokes in November.
“She ran a very good campaign ... and she outraised her opponent significantly and out-communicated her opponent significantly. But that only gets you so far,” said Tyler Jones, a Charleston-based Democratic strategist who works on Cunningham’s campaign and said Wetmore’s margin come next month is likely to be narrower.
“Centrist Democrats are very, very popular these days in a world that is dominated by the extremes,” he added. “It’s the centrist candidates who tend to stand out and can speak to reforming the system.”
Elsewhere on the coast and around the state, House Democrats are hoping to pick up seats that include:
▪ House District 75, held by Republican state Rep. Kirkman Finlay, a Richland County businessman, who faces Democrat Rhodes Bailey, a public defender.
▪ House District 112, left by retiring GOP Rep. Mike Sottile. The district covers the areas of Isle of Palms and Sullivans Island, which Cunningham won in 2018. Democrat Daniel Brownstein faces Republican challenger Joe Bustos in November.
▪ House District 114, held by Republican state Rep. Lin Bennett, who won the seat in 2016 once held by former House Speaker Bobby Harrell before he left office under allegations of public corruption. Bennett has long been a Democratic target, criticized for her past support of QAnon, whose adherents have expressed support for President Trump and push wild, unproven conspiracy theories, and her controversial comments criticizing fast-food workers. She faces Democrat Ed Sutton, a veteran and small business owner.
“I think Democrats will have a very, very, very good night in Charleston,” Jones said. “It’s not going to be a good night for Republicans in Charleston.”
House Republicans see an opportunity to flip some seats themselves, staging challenges for:
▪ House District 15, held by Democratic state Rep. JA Moore, who once again faces former state Rep. Samuel Rivers in November. Rivers previously held the seat, but lost to Moore in 2018 by about 2 percentage points.
▪ House District 44, held by Democratic state Rep. Mandy Powers Norrell of Lancaster, who ran on a joint ticket for governor in 2018. The Lancaster district went red for Trump. Powers Norrell was unchallenged two years ago but now faces Republican Sandy McGarry.
▪ House District 52, held by Democratic Rep. Laurie Funderburk, who represents parts of Kershaw County. Funderburk won her seat in 2018 by nearly 15 percentage points, but Republicans see a chance to flip her seat because the county went for Trump four years ago. Funderburk faces Republican Vic Dabney in November.
▪ House District 117, a district that covers Berkeley and Charleston counties, held by Democratic Rep. Krystle Matthews. Matthews won her House seat in 2018 by about 7 percentage points. She faces Republican Jordan Pace.
Democrats brush off the idea South Carolina will always be a GOP-controlled state.
“It’s a red state until you win,” said former S.C. Gov. Hodges, who said the Trump presidency has dramatically helped voter preference in South Carolina. But, “honestly, you’ve got to say the state’s a red state until we actually move from promise to victory.”
Despite what is slated to be a higher than usual voter turnout in South Carolina this year, Republicans say they’ll have leverage.
“More votes turn out, we win,” said state Republican Party chairman Drew McKissick on a recent media call. “End of story.”
This story was originally published October 18, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Tired of losing, SC Democrats think they’ve got a winning combo: Cash and candidates."
