Myrtle Beach’s race for Congress has become a Trump ‘proxy war.’ Who benefits from that?
Exactly two years ago, Tom Rice’s biggest worry had nothing to do with politics: He and his family had just gotten sick with COVID-19.
His biggest concern? He could no longer taste bacon.
But Rice was, of course, facing a re-election as he does every two years.
On that front, however, the Myrtle Beach-area congressman was safe: He faced no Republican primary challengers, and while he ultimately faced off against Democrat Melissa Watson in November, he won handily with more than 60% of the vote.
This time around, though, Rice has found himself locked in one of former President Donald Trump’s “proxy wars” as he seeks a sixth term in Congress.
“Just as there are proxy wars in the world of the military there are proxy wars in the world of politics,” said Mark Sanford, a former South Carolina governor and former House colleague of Rice. “And it’s come down to a proxy war between Trump and not Trump.”
And that proxy war has drawn high-profile Republicans — from Trump, to former House Speaker Paul Ryan, to former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie – into the fray.
Rather than cruise to re-election as he has in past elections, Rice has become a conduit for conservative anger against so-called RINOs, Republicans In Name Only, who Trump supporters blame for abandoning the former president and pulling the GOP in the wrong direction.
In his primary race this year, state Rep. Russell Fry has emerged as one of the vessels for that anger, accusing Rice of abandoning Trump and his constituents when it mattered most. The primary field is still crowded, though, with other challengers earning significant support.
For Rice, it was a single vote last year that angered Trump and his base, throwing him into a primary campaign crowded with candidates who pledge allegiance to both Trump and his policy ideas: His vote to impeach Trump.
After Trump supporters incited a deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 last year, Rice joined Democrats and nine other Republicans in voting to impeach the president, calling his unwillingness to stop the violence a violation of the Constitution. He’s since argued that the GOP should stick with Trump’s policy ideas — he notes he supported those ideas 94% of the time in Congress — but abandon the man himself.
But it was that vote that brought on the proxy war, and may have helped make Fry a more viable candidate.
The battle lines of that proxy war have been clear since news about Rice’s vote broke 18 months ago: On one side is Trump’s base, which downplays the violence of Jan. 6 and believes House Republicans should have stayed loyal during the impeachment vote.
And on the other side are all the other conservatives, who offer varying opinions on Trump, Jan. 6 and what the former president’s role in the GOP should be.
But with such a proxy war being waged for Myrtle Beach’s congressional seat, who benefits? Does anyone benefit from the race getting national attention?
According to interviews with political observers watching how the Republican primary for South Carolina’s 7th District plays out, the proxy war could have benefits for both Fry and Rice, as long as voters are engaged.
And a recent poll from the Trafalgar Group suggests they are. That poll of likely Republican primary voters showed double-digit support for Fry over Rice, the first public poll to do so.
Political observers said the proxy war could be a boon for Rice’s fundraising efforts, but could also motivate Trump’s base to turn out in a typically low-turnout primary election. Rice had more than $1 million more on hand than Fry as of the April campaign finance reports.
Sanford said the Myrtle Beach-area proxy war could cut in favor of either Rice or Trump.
“For some people…it will remind that voter of the fact that Trump’s my guy (and) he’s against Trump,” Sanford said. “For others it will remind them this guy has shown a level of independence that is lacking in today’s political arena.”
But former U.S. House member Joe Walsh, a Trump critic for years, said the point of Trump’s proxy wars is to strengthen his hold on the Republican Party. And, Walsh added, Trump usually wins, meaning any Republican opposing him is doomed.
“This is Trump’s party, period. Trump’s hold on the party is stronger now than it was a year and a half ago,” Walsh, an Illinois Republican, said. “If you publicly oppose him odds are your career as a Republican is over.”
Put together, it’s not yet clear who will ultimately benefit more from a Trump proxy war. But what is clear is this: The nation now has its eyes on the Grand Strand.
High-profile Republicans choose sides in proxy war
At first, Rice has said, Republican leaders thought his vote to impeach Trump was a mistake.
When he made clear it wasn’t, South Carolina Republicans moved swiftly against him. Within days of his vote, county GOPs were organizing a censure vote of Rice, which culminated in a formal censure by the state party in February last year.
Concurrently, a crowded field of Republicans announced they would primary Rice this year for his vote. Fry announced his candidacy later, in August.
By the fall, Trump made clear he had a target on Rice’s back, and would work to enact his vengeance, saying he would support “good and SMART America First candidates” running against Rice and others who criticized him or voted to impeach him.
Then, in February, Trump endorsed Fry against Rice and flew to Florence to rally for Fry and 1st District candidate Katie Arrington, who’s challenging Trump-critic Rep. Nancy Mace in the 1st District.
Endorsements from MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell — known for his crusade to overturn the 2020 election — and former Trump administration officials followed. Fry has also earned the backing of former South Carolina Speaker Jay Lucas and other state lawmakers.
But Rice, in response, has tapped his own lineup of high-profile Republicans to support him as he seeks re-election. On Wednesday, for example, Ryan — at one time one of the most powerful Republicans in the nation — flew to Florence to sing Rice’s praises and endorse him, all while taking shots at Trump’s “vengeance” against his critics.
And in April, Rice won the support of former New Jersey Governor and one-time presidential candidate Chris Christie, who helped him fundraise in Myrtle Beach.
Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, perhaps Trump’s biggest Republican critic, too, has donated money to Rice.
Will Trump’s base turn out for Russell Fry?
Perhaps the most important factor in Trump’s proxy war is whether or not his base will turn out for Fry on June 14.
That’s a big question because some Horry County conservatives have made clear they don’t support either Rice or Fry, viewing them as too politically similar.
Duane Oliver, a former chairman of the Horry County Republican Party, said he thinks Trump’s base will in fact turn out for Fry. He estimated that even if a fraction of Trump’s support turns out, Fry will carry the election.
“Trump is a rockstar when it comes to politics. Who else can pull off these rallies?” Oliver said. “People are so devoted to him and I think we have a contingent of that in Horry County.”
And Jerry Rovner, the GOP leader for the 7th District, said he thinks the national attention could ultimately hurt Rice, in part because the Republicans endorsing him aren’t popular with Trump’s base.
Rovner said he was “flabbergasted” that Rice invited Christie to Myrtle Beach, and noted he “wouldn’t want” money or an endorsement from Cheney.
“I was kind of shocked, that’s like scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of Republican endorsements,” he said.
Rovner, though, said he wasn’t sure how much Republican voters care about the national attention the congressional race has gotten. On one hand, he said, he hears from voters who aren’t paying attention to the race. But on the other, enthusiasm was high for the debate between Rice, Fry and others at Francis Marion University, something that surprised him.
“Maybe there is more attention than I’m giving it credit for,” he said. “It’ll be interesting to see how this whole thing plays out.”
For it’s part, Fry’s campaign is staying focused on June 14, not the national attention he and Rice have gotten, campaign manager Philip Habib said.
“Our campaign is focused on activating every voter who believes that (the 7th Congressional District) needs a new Congressman,” Habib said. “We will leave the political analysis to the experts.”
For GOP activist Chad Caton, who Trump’s base will support at the polls is the biggest question.
Caton is among the Horry County conservatives who believe Trump’s endorsement of Fry was a mistake. And he said as much to Bill Stepian, one of Trump’s top political advisers, in February.
But it’s not clear who Trump supporters like Caton will ultimately vote for. A straw poll of Horry County GOP members, for example, found the strongest support for Dr. Garrett Barton, a physician from Cheraw, and Ken Richardson, the head of the Horry County school board.
The Trafalgar Group poll, though, indicated that Rice and Fry may meet in a run-off election. Fry was backed by 42% of likely GOP voters while Rice won 23% support.
“I don’t think a champion has pushed to the forefront yet,” Caton said. “The numbers don’t add up for Fry.”
“Trump’s a man, not a prophet, not a king,” Caton added. “I’d like to get back to being able to afford gas and steaks.”
All the while, Rice is betting that his record of delivering funding and infrastructure projects to the Grand Strand and Pee Dee will boost him over his crowded field of challengers and their allegiance to Trump.
Asked recently about the additional attention to his race, Rice laughed.
“I’ve certainly gotten more popular,” he said.
But he also sees his race as important for the national GOP. The attention, he said, and the fact he’s locked in a proxy war “means it’s that much more important to win,” he said.
“It’s that much more important to help set the direction of the party moving forward.”
This story was originally published June 3, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
