GOP’s early 2016 front-runners meet uncertain SC voters

It’s nearly a year before S.C. voters cast ballots to choose the Republican presidential nominee. But would-be candidates are coming through the Palmetto State like the primary is only a few weeks away.

Starting Tuesday, the GOP’s early front-runners – former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker – swing through South Carolina back-to-back. They follow a trio of other Republican hopefuls who parachuted into a West Columbia national security conference over the weekend.

The early presidential handicapping gives an edge to Bush, the 62-year-old son and brother of two presidents, who has name recognition and longtime connections in South Carolina.

“He has the family name,” said Cindi Looney, 57, of Lexington. “I just remember what he did as governor, and I was a fan of his father and brother.”

Walker, whose rise to the top of GOP polls started less than two months ago at an Iowa forum, also could find a friendly reception in South Carolina.

The Palmetto State is one of the nation’s least unionized states and Walker has drawn national acclaim in GOP circles for his fights against organized labor.

“He’s not afraid,” said Pam Bradley, 60, of Lexington. “I hate when politicians say they will do something, then don’t.”

Walker’s looks don’t hurt, either, Bradley said of the 47-year-old. “His appearance and the way he talks to people is nice.”

Walker has not visited South Carolina since August 2013 when he was in the state for Gov. Nikki Haley’s re-election announcement in Greenville. Haley is meeting with front-runners during their visits but is not expected to offer an endorsement until closer to the 2016 primary.

College of Charleston political scientist Kendra Stewart said Walker will appeal to S.C. voters because he fought off recall attempts in Wisconsin. Plus, he holds the “Washington outsider” card.

“Still, I’m not sure [if] he’s a flash in the pan or if he could turn out to be more than that,” she said.

Walker’s scrappy, underdog reputation will appeal to Republicans who are spoiling for a fight with Democrats and think he could be best suited to battle Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton, Furman University political scientist Danielle Vinson said.

Walker’s weakness could be on display if he has to answer questions about his foreign policy positions, issues that governors typically don’t face, said Vinson and University of South Carolina political scientist Mark Tompkins.

“He’s vulnerable on that kind of stuff,” said Tompkins, citing Walker’s missteps on foreign policy matters.

Bush has some skeptics to win over, too.

The former Florida governor’s backing of the Common Core education standards puts off Bradley, who thinks it is a one-size-fits-all education plan. And Bush’s support of immigration reform irks his early supporter, Looney, who says U.S. borders need to be better secured.

“We don’t need to open the floodgates,” Looney said.

Still, Bush does not have to move too far right to please South Carolina’s conservative voters, said Stewart of the College of Charleston.

“You don’t win by being an ideologue in Florida,” she said. “He does not need to appeal to the right and still can raise a lot of money.”

Whatever votes Bush might lose in the more conservative Upstate, he likely will gain among more moderate Lowcountry Republicans, Vinson said.

“There’s a lot of variety in the Republican Party in South Carolina,” she said.

While Bush and Walker command national attention, Palmetto State voters now are split among almost a dozen Republican White House hopefuls.

USC’s Tompkins suggested U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham of Seneca, now exploring a presidential bid, could lock up his home state if he runs.

For now, however, conservative records matter to early GOP presidential watchers.

Looney said she will continue to look for alternatives to Bush.

Meanwhile, Bradley said she would vote for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson if the Republican presidential primary were held today.

“He’s an extremely conservative guy,” she said. “He’s what we need: Someone in the White House who likes America.”