Israel's Expansion of Lebanon War Forces Tough Choices on US and Iran
Just as the United States and Iran‘s negotiations to end their three-month war appear to be gaining momentum, Israel has stepped up operations on another volatile front in Lebanon.
The recent decision by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to intensify airstrikes and ground operations against Hezbollah, one of Iran’s closest allies, in the face of the Islamic Republic’s demands to cease fighting on all fronts could prove problematic for both Washington and Tehran as they navigate their precarious peace process.
The impact could see the U.S. forced to choose between a timely end to a costly war and doubling down on support for its closest Middle East ally. Iran may need to decide whether to take a deal viewed by many as favorable in the face of a hostile superpower or risk further escalation in defense of its longtime Lebanese partner.
In any case, Netanyahu holds a powerful card that could prove consequential in determining the course of a broader conflict he has repeatedly stated is far from over.
“I think it’s very clear that Netanyahu really wants the Iran war to continue, and he certainly has no intention of ending the war in Lebanon, unless Trump really forces him to,” Frank Lowenfield, a former U.S. envoy for Middle East peace, told Newsweek. “His primary motivation here is to derail any hopes for a U.S.-Iran extension of the ceasefire.”
Even a successful push by Trump to pause on Israeli attacks in Lebanon may only postpone renewed fighting. Past ceasefires reached in various theaters since the Middle East was first plunged into regional turmoil by Hamas’ October 2023 attack have demonstrated Netanyahu’s tendency to view such agreements as only temporary measures.
“None of these wars ever really end, I think is the way to look at it,” Lowenfield said. “You have a cessation of hostilities, you have a period of calm, and then you have a slowly ratcheting back up of the military pressure, because I think certainly from Netanyahu’s perspective, politically he wants to have a forever war on multiple fronts.”
Under Pressure
Even for seasoned observers, the Trump-Netanyahu dynamic has proved complex. Reports of fissures between the two men most commonly viewed as close allies predate the U.S. leader’s return to office last year and have followed him throughout his second administration, particularly when it comes to Iran.
Yet in both the 12-Day War launched by Israel last June and the even larger-scale joint U.S.-Israeli war against Iran commenced in late February of this year, Trump ultimately followed the influential Israeli premier into battle.
As the three-month mark of the current conflict approaches, however, mounting costs, limited gains and declining domestic support are weighing particularly heavy on the White House.
The Islamic Republic has proved resilient in the face of its supreme leader’s death, with no sign of major internal unrest under the leadership of the slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba. Iran is also reportedly already regrouping missile and drone capabilities and has yet to back down on its rigid demands for ending the conflict despite dire economic conditions.
Meanwhile, ongoing disruption to energy trade due to dueling U.S. and Iranian blockades of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to oil and gas facilities bombarded by the Islamic Republic continue to wreak havoc on global markets.
Renewed tensions between Trump and Netanyahu have been the subject of a growing chorus of news reports. Following what a number of outlets described as a tense call between the two leaders last week, Trump told reporters that the Israeli premier will “do whatever I want him to” in relation to the conflict.
“I see that the most logical outcome, both for the United States and Iran, each of which really wants this deal for their own economic and political purposes, I don’t see the United States allowing Israel to prevent that from happening, I don’t see Iran allowing Hezbollah to prevent that from happening,” Lowenfield said.
“But at the same time, I don’t think that war between Israel and Hezbollah is going to be resolved,” he added. “So, I think that the most logical outcome is each side pressures their respective allies to stand down for a period of time that would allow this negotiation to move forward, and then once that negotiation has been signed, sealed, and delivered, I think you’ll see that war between Israel and Lebanon just starts to slowly increase in intensity again.”
Ian Lesser, distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund, felt Tehran would be unlikely to entirely reject the notion of an advantageous agreement based solely on the Lebanese front, while noting Netanyahu was also subject to pressure at home.
“The renewed operations in Lebanon are likely to complicate already precarious negotiations with Tehran,” Lesser told Newsweek. “But I doubt the Iranians would spurn an offer from Washington that they judge as favorable based on the situation in Lebanon.”
“On the Israeli side,” Lesser said, “pressure from right-wing members of Netanyahu's cabinet is likely the leading driver in the decision to renew operations.”
The Lebanon Trap
The most right-wing government in Israel’s history includes National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, both of whom have opposed any attempt to include a Lebanon ceasefire in a potential U.S. deal with Iran.
Coalition partners are not the only stakeholders to which Netanyahu must answer.
“In many ways, the expanded campaign appears designed as much for domestic Israeli political consumption as for military purposes,” Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran branch of the Israel Defense Forces’ Research and Analysis Division and now senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies’ Iran and Shiite Axis Program, told Newsweek.
“It helps respond to growing anger and frustration within the Israeli public, even if it does not produce a clear strategic outcome,” Citrinowicz said. “At the same time, it is entirely possible that Netanyahu also hopes continued escalation could complicate or even undermine a potential U.S.–Iran agreement.”
Ultimately, however, he warned that “Israel currently lacks a coherent strategy for how to escape the strategic trap it fell into once Hezbollah entered the war.”
Until reentering the conflict in response to the elder Khamenei’s death, Hezbollah had largely refrained from conducting attacks, in line with a November 2024 ceasefire struck two months after Israel killed the group’s longtime leader, Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, amid an intensified campaign. Israel had continued to strike Lebanon regularly throughout the truce period, citing attempts by Hezbollah to regroup.
Though Hezbollah has suffered severe setbacks since first launching attacks against Israel in support of Hamas in October 2023, the group is assessed to retain significant military capabilities.Recent Israeli operations in Lebanon have proved especially frustrating for the IDF as Hezbollah has shifted tactics toward the use of first-person view drones to inflict casualties on Israeli troops and equipment.
And while Netanyahu has made clear his intention to “crush” Hezbollah that goes beyond past confrontations, including growing calls on the Lebanese government to disarm the powerful entity, little evidence has emerged that the group was on the brink of total defeat.
“At the core of the problem is the absence of a broader Israeli political strategy beyond the assumption that what cannot be solved through force can be solved with even greater force,” Citrinowicz said.
“Netanyahu hopes separating the Lebanese front from the broader regional negotiations will give Israel more operational freedom,” he added, “but in practice Hezbollah is unlikely to surrender or disappear even if Israel significantly expands the campaign, particularly if that escalation further damages the Lebanese government itself.”
Iran’s Say
Citrinowicz argued it was “highly unlikely” that Tehran would accept any deal that did not address Lebanon, given Hezbollah’s longstanding role as a core component of the Axis of Resistance coalition.
And should Israeli strikes resume in the wake of any U.S.-Iran deal, he pointed out that the Islamic Republic had an array of options to respond while seeking to avoid a return to full-scale hostilities involving Washington.
“Not every Israeli strike would trigger a direct Iranian reaction. Iran still appears interested in avoiding a broader regional war and preserving the diplomatic track where possible,” Citrinowicz said. “That said, major actions-particularly large-scale strikes in Beirut or attacks perceived as threatening Hezbollah's core strategic infrastructure-could provoke a much harsher Iranian response.”
“The spectrum of possible Iranian reactions could range from maritime escalation in the Gulf and threats to strategic waterways, to direct or indirect attacks against Israel, and potentially even pressure against regional actors viewed as aligned with Israel, including the UAE,” he added.
Babak Vahdad, researcher and analyst on Iranian dynamics and Shiite Islam, also spoke of Hezbollah’s significance to Iran, stating that, “from Tehran's perspective, Lebanon is not a secondary theater but part of a broader interconnected regional front.”
“It is also worth remembering that Hezbollah has historically played an important role, perhaps in some areas even more significant than Tehran itself, in training and supporting the Houthis, who remained a comparatively limited factor during the war despite being one of the most potentially dangerous components of the ‘Axis of Resistance,'” Vahdad told Newsweek.
He argued that “Tehran's objective would likely be to preserve both the current and future capabilities of these actors through continued on the ground activities that do not necessarily trigger a broader regional escalation.”
As for Netanyahu, Vahdad felt that the Israeli premier’s “most difficult challenge may ultimately be convincing Trump to keep the Lebanon and Hezbollah file compartmentalized and outside the core negotiation track,” an endeavor made all the more complicated “because Trump's apparent priority is ending the war and stabilizing the regional situation as quickly as possible, whereas Netanyahu likely still sees Hezbollah as an unresolved long-term strategic threat.”
“For the White House, this creates a particularly difficult balancing act,” Vahdad said. “Trump may ultimately find himself trying to square the circle between two increasingly conflicting priorities: preserving strong alignment with its regional ally while also pursuing the broader regional stability necessary to sustain any diplomatic framework with Iran.”
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This story was originally published May 27, 2026 at 4:00 AM.