How Soaring Beef Prices Are Changing Texas Barbecue

Persistent supply constraints and broader strains on America’s ranchers have pushed beef prices to record highs, placing pressure on the nation's pitmasters who are struggling to keep businesses afloat while spending an increasing share of the budget on their main ingredient.

According to the most recent inflation reading from the Department of Labor, beef and veal prices were 14.8 percent higher in April compared to a year prior, with ground beef having risen 14.5 percent and beef steaks up 16.1 percent.

And as tighter supply and higher prices meet with unshaken and rising demand-now spiking during the peak BBQ season-the result has been a wave of closures and warnings from restauranteurs that the industry is in dire straits.

Why Are Beef Prices Rising?

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the U.S. cattle herd has significantly decreased in size since 2019. As of January 1, there were 86.2 million cattle and calves on U.S. farms, the smallest figure for the start of a year since 1951.

Others have pointed to general inflation alongside tariffs and several other financial stressors-from ongoing droughts to rising input costs to shrinking ranch land-as raising the costs of cattle farming, which have also delayed efforts to rebuild the herd.

Some have also accused the nation’s meatpacking corporations of artificially boosting prices, leading to probes by state and federal investigators into alleged price-gouging.

The issues have been compounded by a steady increase in protein demand, which has been apparently unaffected by rising costs. According to an analysis by the Meat Institute, meat sales hit an all-time high of $112 billion last year, with more than 98 percent of U.S. households counted among the customers.

"Consumer demand has remained quite good," David P. Anderson, a professor in Texas A&M University's agricultural economics department, told Newsweek. "Grilling season has begun and that always lends a seasonal boost to beef demand and prices. Beyond just the normal seasonal grilling season, beef demand has been growing for a decade."

Given the long-term remedies needed to address the issues-which would require supply tightening even further as ranchers keep cattle for breeding rather than slaughter-industry experts predict it could be years before prices normalize.

“Drought, rising costs especially fuel, market volatility, higher interest rates, high prices for replacement heifers and cows, and just an overall caution are slowing expansion interest,” Anderson said.

According to the latest forecasts from the USDA, beef and veal prices are expected to rise another 12.1 percent this year, in line with the increase last year.

How Rising Prices Are Impacting BBQ

The nation's BBQ industry appears to be taking a hit as a result of the pressures, with historically meat-loving states at a heightened risk.

A report from TheWashington Post found that restaurants across Texas are increasingly at risk of closure because of skyrocketing costs, with many already going under as beef prices feed into their signature dishes like brisket and smoked sausage.

One purveyor was forced to post a plea for support on social media early in the year, writing that they had "tried avenue after avenue to reduce our costs and keep our doors open so we can feed you lovely people, but that can only take us so far."

And the Houston Chronicle reported that some restaurants are trying to make their costly proteins go further by pushing "dirty rice"-a Louisiana staple in which chefs can use trimmings and leftover meats to bulk up a dish.

But a growing number of the state's beloved restaurants are falling by the wayside as beef prices continue to reach record highs.

Shawn Jones, pitmaster at Kirby's BBQ in New Caney, Texas, announced in a video posted to YouTube in March that he would be shuttering the restaurant.

"Absolutely insane" beef prices were cited as the primary reason for the move, and Jones said it had taken a critical toll on demand and the business' bottom line.

"With brisket being our biggest seller here in Texas, that is really weighing on our profit margins," Jones said. "Not only that, but the way the economy is right now, people are not able to frequent their favorite barbecue joints as much as they used to."

Jones said that rising beef costs had driven the price of brisket to around $36 per pound and that a full meal could run customers up to $100.

"That’s just not something that most of middle America can do as often as they would need to support most barbecue joints," he said.

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This story was originally published May 27, 2026 at 5:00 AM.