‘Death of MAGA': Republicans Grapple With Trump Victory Over Thomas Massie

“This is the saddest moment in a long time. It’s obviously the death of MAGA, whatever that was, but it’s also the end of the Republican Party as we thought we knew it.”

Tucker Carlson‘s reaction to Thomas Massie‘s primary loss this week captured a growing fear among Republicans. Trump’s success in forcing out the Kentucky congressman exposed a party caught between two incompatible electorates. Trump-aligned primary voters demand ideological purity and unwavering loyalty. General election voters in competitive districts often reject it.

The result is a structural bind that GOP strategists now believe threatens Republican control of the Senate and dozens of House seats. Republican candidates increasingly struggle to appeal to both electorates at once. Most are choosing Trump. Many fear that the choice could cost them elections.

The problem has been building for more than a decade, but events this month made it impossible to ignore. Massie’s forced exit from Congress, Trump’s endorsement of Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in the Texas Senate race, and his public attacks on moderate senators all highlighted the same fault line: Trump continues to dominate primaries with candidates who often struggle in general elections.

“Revenge is a two-way street,” Jim Kessler, executive vice president of the Third Way think tank, told Newsweek. “All the politicians that he’s gone after are either finished with their career or they hope to have a second start by being someone who took Trump on. John Cornyn, who’s been a Republican loyalist his entire life and was stabbed in the back by Trump, his career is over. So his vengeance will simply be, I’m not going to support the Republican line and not give them the votes the rest of my term.”

With Cornyn as the nominee, Democrats viewed the Texas Senate race as largely unwinnable. With Paxton, strategists suddenly saw a real opportunity. James Talarico, a Democratic state representative from Austin with strong grassroots support, appeared to gain an opening that seemed unlikely just six months earlier.

“If Cornyn wins the nomination, Talarico has very little chance,” Kessler told Newsweek. “If Paxton wins the nomination, Talarico has a fairly good chance. Still an underdog, but the race is competitive now. Democrats didn’t come into this race thinking Texas was going to be a problem. And now it is.”

Polling reflected the shift. An April Texas Public Opinion Research poll found Talarico leading Cornyn by three points, 44 percent to 41 percent. Against Paxton, Talarico led by five points, 46 percent to 41 percent. A separate University of Texas poll showed even wider margins, with Talarico ahead of Cornyn by seven points and Paxton by eight.

The MAGA Fracture

When Trump targeted Massie, even some Trump-aligned figures broke ranks. Colorado Representative Lauren Boebert defended Massie against the primary challenge. Tucker Carlson argued the loss marked the death of MAGA itself. But the most striking break came from Marjorie Taylor Greene.

The former Georgia congresswoman endorsed Massie during the primary, calling him “a giant among weak pathetic men.” After his loss, she posted on social media that the future of the Republican Party had been destroyed. She predicted that a new America First movement would rise, led by younger conservatives who despise the party’s old guard.

“Tonight the future of the Republican Party was destroyed. The Real America First Movement will rise led by the younger generations, who hate the old guard with an unquenchable passion. Let us pray that we have a country left by the time these creatures are gone,” Greene said.

Her comments reflected growing anxiety within parts of the movement. If Trump could turn his political machine against Massie, a Tea Party stalwart and longtime conservative ally, then no Republican was truly safe. The implication was clear: a party where loyalty to Trump outweighs electability could eventually turn on itself.

Others celebrated the outcome. Republican Representative Randy Fine of Florida posted a graphic showing Massie in tears and labeled him a “LOSER.” Representative Erin Houchin of Indiana, another Trump ally, said she was pleased to deliver news of Massie’s defeat to the president and congratulated the Trump campaign.

The divide within MAGA was unmistakable. One faction prioritized ideological consistency and independence. The other prioritized absolute loyalty to Trump. Massie’s defeat suggested which side is winning the battle for the party’s future.

Republican politicians remain trapped between those competing pressures. Defying Trump can trigger a primary defeat. Embracing him can create vulnerabilities in swing districts and states. Most choose the immediate political survival that comes with aligning with Trump, betting that the long-term consequences may never arrive.

Republican strategist Mike Madrid described the dilemma bluntly.

“You can’t be thinking long term,” Madrid told Newsweek. “You have to be thinking about the immediate success and try to live another day. The most important election is the one that needs to be won now, and now they have to stick with Trump knowing it means they’ll win the primary but lose the general.”

The 2026 Map Inverts

The 2026 Senate map was supposed to favor Republicans. Democrats are defending more vulnerable seats in difficult states, and early expectations pointed toward GOP gains.

That calculation has shifted. If the political climate continues moving against Trump, and if his endorsed candidates continue to underperform in swing races, Republicans could lose Senate control instead. What once seemed implausible is now being discussed seriously by strategists in both parties.

“It’s a coin toss. A year ago, nobody believed Democrats would be within striking distance. Now it’s as likely as not,” Madrid said.

Some Republicans have already expressed concern that endorsing challengers to moderate incumbents could hurt the party in November. Retiring Republican Congressman Don Bacon told USA Today: “One can have a totally loyal minority or a majority. I prefer a majority.”

Kessler says Bacon is not completely wrong.

“The danger for Republicans in swing districts and states is not simply Trump’s endorsement,” Kessler told Newsweek. “It is being Trump-branded.”

Republican strategists increasingly acknowledge the trap. Primaries reward loyalty to Trump. General elections can punish it. The only potential escape is a candidate capable of winning a Trump-dominated primary and then repositioning for the general election. That task becomes far more difficult once Trump-aligned donors and activists spend months tying the candidate closely to the president.

The stakes extend beyond 2026. Losing the Senate would severely limit Trump’s second-term agenda. Judicial appointments, Supreme Court confirmations, and major legislative priorities would all depend on Democratic cooperation.

“If Trump loses one or both houses during the midterms, the Trump presidency is effectively over,” Madrid said.

The 2028 Question

The electability problem is unlikely to disappear after November. Even if Trump-backed candidates lose in 2026, they will still shape Republican primary politics heading into the next presidential race. That leaves every potential GOP contender facing the same question: how do you inherit Trump’s voters without inheriting his liabilities?

Republican strategist Matt Klink said the challenge is already visible in key battleground races.

“Trump’s endorsement still matters enormously inside a Republican primary, but it is much less reliable with the voters who decide swing races,” Klink told Newsweek. “The risk is highest where Republicans have to survive two different electorates: a GOP-heavy primary electorate and a Trump-skeptical general election electorate.”

Polling data points to the same divide. An Economist/YouGov survey conducted in early May found Trump’s approval among independents at 25 percent, while 63 percent disapproved, an 18-point drop from a year earlier. Republican strategist Alex Patton argued that outside heavily Republican districts, association with Trump has increasingly become a liability.

“Trump’s support among independents has collapsed,” Patton told Newsweek. “On average, the president is below 30 percent approval and upwards of 65 percent disapproval. Outside a gerrymandered district, tying yourself to Trump’s numbers is an anchor.”

Trump’s Underwater Approval Ratings in Senate Battlegrounds

According to Morning Consult polling, Trump’s approval ratings have weakened across several key Senate battleground states. Maine shows a negative 17-point net approval rating. Michigan stands at negative 14. Even Texas, which Trump won by 14 points in 2024, now shows him underwater by three points.

“Six months out, public support is moving away from the party in power. If Republicans don’t change the story, the midterms could become a classic check-and-balance election,” Klink said. “The danger for Republicans is that Trump’s approval becomes the emotional shortcut voters use to make decisions in races they otherwise haven’t fully engaged with.”

Klink said the challenge now extends beyond the midterms and into the party’s long-term future.

“The successful Republican candidate will be the one who best charts a path forward,” he told Newsweek. “Can you inherit Trump’s voters without inheriting all of Trump’s liabilities? Every would-be nominee is trying to answer that question.”

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This story was originally published May 23, 2026 at 4:00 AM.