Platner-Endorsed Democrats' Chances of Winning Maine Governor Race-Poll

Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner said he would rank former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson first in the state's Democratic gubernatorial primary, as polls suggest a tight race in the Pine Tree State.

Platner is viewed as a rising star in Democratic politics and is the likely Democratic nominee for the state's U.S. Senate race, taking on longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins in November after Democratic Governor Janet Mills ended her campaign. The gubernatorial race has garnered less national attention, but Mills' retirement leaves open a seat in a potentially competitive state.

The race will also be an early test for Platner's political influence. While he is ranking Jackson first, Nirav Shah, the former director of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is leading in polling ahead of the June 9 primary.

Newsweek reached out to leading Democratic candidates for comment via email.

Who Is Running in the Maine Gubernatorial Race?

In addition to Jackson and Shah, candidates include Secretary of State Shenna Bellows; Hannah Pingree, the former director of the Maine Governor's Office of Policy Innovation, a former House speaker and daughter of Representative Chellie Pingree; and Angus King III, the son of Senator Angus King.

Republican candidates include Jonathan Bush, the nephew of former President George H.W. Bush; former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles, businessman David Jones and former Maine Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason.

Who Is Graham Platner Ranking in the Democratic Primary?

Platner announced his ranking preference during an appearance in Ellsworth on Thursday, reported News Center Maine. He said he ranked Jackson first, but also ranked Bellows and Pingree.

"Troy and I are entirely aligned on labor issues and organizing issues, and I think our policies align quite closely. Organized labor is a key to what I think the future of American politics is," Platner said.

Jackson is viewed as a progressive favorite, having also received the endorsement from independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. He has endorsed Platner in the Senate race.

Maine uses ranked-choice voting in its gubernatorial primaries, where voters “rank” their preferred candidates. If no candidate reaches 50 percent support, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are distributed to the other candidates according to their second-choice rankings. This continues until a candidate reaches majority support.

Jackson said in a statement that he is "proud" to have Platner's support.

"Maine needs the working class to step up and fight back against the billionaires and corporations holding us down. That's why Graham and I are running - to make government work for workers. And kick some billionaire a**," he wrote.

Mary-Erin Casale, a Pingree spokesperson, told Newsweek that recent polls show "this is a competitive ranked choice race."

"Hannah’s own polling showed her within striking distance of front runner status and nearly every poll has shown that she is among the most competitive though multiple rounds of voting. And she’s since the only candidate to earn the support of Governor Janet Mills and Graham Platner, momentum that no single poll captures," she said.

Shah, Jackson Lead New Poll of Maine Governor Race

A new poll from Impact Research, first reported by Inside Elections, showed Shah and Jackson leading in the race.

Thirty-two percent of respondents said they would cast their ballots for Shah, compared to 24 percent for Jackson, the poll found. Pingree, Bellows and King polled at 16, 15 and 9 percent, respectively. Four percent were still undecided about who they would vote for.

It surveyed 500 likely voters from May 19-21, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Jackson's campaign manager Robin Logsdon told Newsweek that Mainers want a "progressive fighter who isn't afraid to challenge the status quo in the Governor’s Office or the U.S. Senate."

"With fifth-generation logger Troy Jackson as Governor and oyster farmer Graham Platner in the U.S. Senate, that is exactly what they’ll get. Prediction markets and recent polling show the same thing: momentum is on the side of change," Logsdon said.

Amy Weinstock, a campaign spokesperson for Bellows, told Newsweek that she is "the only one in this field with an actual record of taking on Donald Trump and winning."

"From everything we’re seeing, this is a very close race - and in a close ranked choice election, the candidate with the broadest and deepest coalition wins. That’s Shenna, and we’re confident she will be the next governor of Maine," she said.

Kayla vanWieringen, Shah’s campaign manager, responded to the poll in a statement.

“This poll reflects what we’ve been feeling at every event, in every county, since the day Nirav launched this campaign: Mainers are excited to vote for Dr. Nirav Shah,” she wrote.

What Do Other Polls and Prediction Markets Show?

A recent Pan Atlantic Research poll also showed Shah in the lead. He received 29 percent of the vote, while King followed with 24 percent. Jackson, Bellows and Pingree followed with 12, 10 and 9 percent, respectively.

Twenty-two percent said they would rank Pingree second, while 21 percent said they would rank Bellows second. Shah was the second choice of 10 percent of respondents, while 8 percent said they would rank King second. Jackson was the second choice of 7 percent.

The poll surveyed 827 likely voters from May 8-18, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Prediction markets favor Shah, who had a 51 percent chance of winning the nomination on Kalshi. Jackson and Pingree followed with 30 percent and 15 percent chances. On Polymarket, Shah had a 47 percent chance of winning, compared to Jackson's 23 percent and Pingree's 15 percent.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.

Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Can Republicans Flip the Maine Governor’s Seat?

There is no public polling of the gubernatorial race, but forecasters give Democrats an advantage. The Cook Political Report classifies it as Likely Democratic, while Sabato's Crystal Ball views it as Lean Democratic.

"The lack of clarity about the major party nominees (and the potential for this to be more than a two-candidate race), all unfolding as Democrats try to win three straight terms, leads us to think this one could be a sleeper, even as Democrats retain an edge," Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of Sabato's Crystal Ball wrote in a September 4, 2025 update.

Democrats had an 88 percent chance on Kalshi and an 89 percent chance on Polymarket of holding onto the seat as of Friday afternoon.

Democrats have never won three consecutive gubernatorial terms in recent history in Maine, but may be able to break that trend in November.

Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen. He never carried Maine in a presidential race, losing by 7 to former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, and remains unpopular in the state. Only 38 percent of Mainers viewed him favorably in the recent Pan Atlantic poll.

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This story was originally published May 22, 2026 at 6:12 PM.