A tropical system is brewing in the Atlantic. Here’s how it could impact SC

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four in the Atlantic could develop into a tropical depression and hit the southeastern United States, according to the National Hurricane Center.

“It’s becoming more and more likely that we will see some impacts from that tropical system that’s trying to develop there as it moves towards the eastern Gulf of Mexico,” said warning coordination meteorologist Steven Pfaff of the National Weather Service’s Wilmington office.

The tropical wave producing showers and thunderstorms is expected to move near Cuba Friday and emerge over the Straits of Florida by Saturday, according to the NHC. After that, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to further development.

The disturbance has a 60% chance of formation within the next two days and a 90% chance of formation in the next week, the center said Friday.

One of NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter jets, which collect data to assist predictions and forecasts, is scheduled to investigate the system Friday.

“There’s still a lot of question marks,” Pfaff said. “Typically, when a system is developing, the models have a hard time kind of resolving what’s going to happen. So after it develops, it gets a little bit easier with modeling.”

According to Pfaff, the intensity of potential wind impacts on South Carolina will depend on how close the system gets to the coast. With rain expected in the Carolinas before the system could hit, flash and urban flooding are also concerns for the Lowcountry.

“We have a weak front that’s moving into the area that’s going to generate some swaths of heavy rain that could develop that won’t be directly associated with the system, but could set the stage for saturating the ground, which would make it easier for any flooding if we do see rain from the tropical system,” said Pfaff.

If the disturbance does develop into a tropical storm or a hurricane, it will be called Debby. While it’s uncertain how the system will form, experts advise keeping an eye on local alerts.

“What we want people to do in the southeast United States, particularly the Carolinas, is to begin ramping up their situational awareness for this storm,” Pfaff said.

The latest from the NHC’s tropical weather outlook can be accessed here and the NWS’s hazardous weather outlook for Myrtle Beach can be accessed here.