Monday aside, warmer and drier winter expected in Myrtle Beach area

Contrary to what it felt like Monday morning when much of the Grand Strand experienced the season’s first frost, Myrtle Beach can expect a dry winter this year, with below average perception and warmer temperatures.

Myrtle Beach can expect a very different winter than was had in 2015, according to Tim Armstrong, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service.

“It will be dry” this year, said Armstrong, meaning that Myrtle Beach can expect less perception than average.

“This winter looks to be slightly below average as far as precipitation goes,” said Kaitlin Wright, a meteorologist at WPDE. “That being said, the drought in the western Carolinas will most likely not break this winter.”

Temperatures are also predicted to be warmer than in past years.

“As far as temperatures go, this winter looks to bring average to slightly above average temperatures,” said Wright.

Despite these conditions, however, there is still a chance of the occasional snow storm and cooler temperatures.

“Hopefully we can expect a couple of days of snow,” Armstrong said.

The change in climate as compared to last year’s wet conditions is because of La Nina and El Nina conditions, which are determined by the temperature of the Pacific Ocean.

In La Nina conditions water temperature is cooler, making the weather on land dry, with a small chance of precipitation of snow, according to Armstrong.

La Nina conditions were originally observed during October.

“The multimodel averages favor La Nina conditions continuing through the winter,” according to a National Weather Service report.

“The forecaster consensus favors the continuation of weak La Nina conditions through December through February,” according to the report.

The conditions are unique to the Myrtle Beach area, as observed in a study from 1950-2016 in Wilmington, N.C., by the National Weather Service.

“There have only been five winters in history with a similar climate” that have been seen in Myrtle Beach, Armstrong said.

This story was originally published November 21, 2016 at 1:18 PM with the headline "Monday aside, warmer and drier winter expected in Myrtle Beach area."