Myrtle Beach metro leads state in economic growth indicators

The Myrtle Beach metro area led the state in three of four economic indicators, and was second in the fourth, when comparing statistics from October and the same month a year ago, according to information from the Darla Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina.

The information was prepared as part of the school’s 2015 statewide economic outlook that will be presented in full at the 34th Annual Economic Outlook Conference in Columbia on Tuesday. Unlike previous years, the $75 tickets to the conference will be available on the day it will be held.

Economists locally and at USC said that the Grand Strand is well-positioned to continue on a solid growth path next year with continued gains in jobs and real estate.

“The recent report by USC confirms what we’ve been seeing for some time now,” said Brad Dean, CEO of the Myrtle Beach Area Chamber of Commerce. “The Grand Strand economy has rebounded into a period of solid, sustainable growth and this is having a very positive impact on the overall state economy.”

Growth in the hospitality and tourism industry led the state in 2014, and Joey Van Nessen, one of the authors of the USC study, said that while manufacturing could show increasing strength in 2015, there is no reason to believe that housing and tourism will slow down.

“It looks like more of the same (next year),” Rob Salvino, an economist at Coastal Carolina University, said of the area’s outlook in the coming year.

Salvino noted that commercial construction activity is strong in the area, which along with other growth areas will add jobs and cash to the local economy.

Van Nessen noted that the state’s housing costs are notably lower than areas where many potential retirees live, and combined with the low cost of living in South Carolina, there should be continued demand for housing in 2015.

In the USC report, the Myrtle Beach area topped the state’s metro areas in employment growth, retail trade gains and decline in unemployment and came in behind Greenville for growth in residential building permits.

The Grand Strand recently was cited in other studies as having the sixth highest rate of job growth and the top growth in residential building permits nationally. Those studies compared different times in 2013 and 2014 than the USC study, which would account for the differences with the USC information.

“If you liked 2014, then you’ll like 2015,” Van Nessen said. “South Carolina’s economy hit its stride this year, and we expect that trend to continue.”

Van Nessen said that consumers are now in better shape than in recent years with less household debt and increasing home values, which translates to more disposable income.

The statewide outlook calls for job growth in 2015 mirroring that in 2014, 1.9 percent versus the 2 percent seen this year.

Statewide, Van Nessen said the slowdown of the European economy will lessen the demand for goods manufactured in South Carolina. Additionally, he said that no S.C. industry is in rapid expansion now, and that plus lower demand for exports could be drags on next year’s economy statewide.

But he agreed that with the expected continued expansion in the hospitality industry and the relative lack of reliance on European markets for Grand Strand goods, the northeastern corner of the state should be in a good position to avoid steep falloffs because of export and slow manufacturing growth problems.

Salvino and Van Nessen pointed to uncertainty over the national economy as a possible stumbling block in 2015, and Salvino said that an expected increase in mortgage interest rates next year could dampen the demand for housing.

Dean had another worry.

Despite positive movement to attract new employers and diversify the economy, he said, “We still have too many people without jobs and jobs without people (due to a lack of qualified workers).”

Additionally, he said, the state’s inattention to the area’s infrastructure needs will limit future economic growth.

But overall, the news is good.

“South Carolina’s cash cow continues to line the state’s coffers,” Dean said, “due in large part to more tourists, improved real estate sales and solid economic recovery in the small business sector.”

Contact STEVE JONES at 444-1765 or on Twitter @TSN_SteveJones.

This story was originally published December 10, 2014 at 12:19 PM with the headline "Myrtle Beach metro leads state in economic growth indicators."