New report forecasts ‘above-normal activity’ for 2022 hurricane season in the Carolinas
After a year without major hurricanes in 2021, the Carolinas might seem overdue for some tropical weather to hit the coastline.
And this could be the year as Colorado State University researchers reported Thursday that they expect an “above-normal” year. The researchers typically put out one of the first reports on the upcoming hurricane season each year.
They report the Atlantic and Gulf coasts will likely see:
- At least 19 named storms
- Nine hurricanes
- Four of the nine hurricanes will probably be “major hurricanes” — Category 3 or higher
An average season normally has roughly 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Weather Service.
The Colorado State researchers and the NWS have predicted busier-than-usual hurricane seasons several times in recent years. Last year had the third-most storms on record, with 21 named storms and seven hurricanes, four of which were major.
“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them,” the researchers said in their report. “They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
When is hurricane season?
The height of hurricane season typically runs from August to October, after the waters in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have had time to warm up from the winter, according to the NWS. Warm water gives storms the fuel they need to turn into hurricanes. The entirety of hurricane season runs from June to November. However, storms have been known to show up in the weeks before and after the “official” season begins and ends.
Forecasters can’t know now whether any of the expected storms could make landfall, but they offered predictions of the chances it could happen somewhere along the coastline:
Entire continental U.S. coastline: 71% (average for last century is 52%)
U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida: 47% (average for last century is 31%)
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas: 46% (average for last century is 30%)
Neither North or South Carolina had a single hurricane make landfall at full strength last year.
Elsa, the only hurricane that did arrive, arrived as a tropical storm in mid-July. Elsa brought wind gusts of more than 50 mph and dropped up to 5 inches of rain along with its path in both North and South Carolina. Thousands of customers also lost power, including 14,000 in Horry County. After making landfall in South Carolina, Elsa lost strength in North Carolina until it dissipated completely near New Jersey.
There were also three notable hurricanes that caused problems for the Carolinas at a distance.
Hurricane Henry in August and Hurricanes Larry and Sam in September caused rip current and hazardous surf on beaches in the Carolinas, according to the NWS. Hurricane Larry also saw one casualty. A 68-year-old man drowned in North Myrtle Beach on Sept. 8 due to rough surf caused by the hurricane, the NWS’ Wilmington office said.
Effects from far-off hurricanes present a “hidden danger” to those on the coast by creating dangerous surf on the sunny days most likely to attract beach-goers. Hurricane Larry, for example, was hundreds of miles away but still creating rip currents and dangerous waters for swimming along the coastline.
Tropical weather isn’t just a problem for the coastline. Last August, Tropical Storm Fred brought widespread flooding and several tornadoes to the western Carolinas in August. The storm came up from the Florida Panhandle and through Georgia before reaching the Upstate.
Fred dropped 5 to 10 inches of rain on the Carolinas immediately after another string of heavy rainfall dropped a foot of rain on parts of the mountains in North Carolina, causing significant flash flooding in some areas. Six people died as a result of the flooding.
Two other storms, Tropical Storms Claudette and Danny, hit the Carolinas as well, early on in the season. Both brought strong winds and rain but were not as damaging and didn’t cause as much flooding as the other storms last year.
How to prepare for hurricane season
The NWS says it’s important to prepare for hurricane season before it arrives. Here are a few steps to start thinking about now that hurricane season is eight weeks out.
- Develop an evacuation plan. Think about issues such as: What roads are you going to take? How can you avoid traffic?
- Make your “go-kit” now. Potential items include spare car keys, two-week supply of medication, cash (ATMs might not work), phone chargers, hand sanitizer, hygiene items (toilet paper, menstrual products, diapers), important documents, a battery-operated emergency radio, a flashlight, batteries and rain gear.
- Make a checklist. You’ll be stressed in the moment and don’t want to forget anything. Both the American Red Cross and the U.S. government’s Ready.gov have checklists and resources for getting prepared.
- Think about transportation. Will you need help? See what resources your local government or aid groups have for getting you out if the needs arises.
- Don’t just dismiss the storm. If the authorities are saying to get out, please do. It’s easy to dismiss tropical weather for those who think they’ve “been through it before,” but the NWS and climatologists say the storms are getting worse and worse due to climate change. Don’t risk your life or your family.
This story was originally published April 8, 2022 at 5:00 AM with the headline "New report forecasts ‘above-normal activity’ for 2022 hurricane season in the Carolinas."
