A new poll of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza provides a startling conclusion: Fully one-third of the population no longer wants a separate state of their own. No, these Palestinians now say they want to live in one state alongside the Israelis, in what they call a bi-national country.
The number of Palestinians calling for this has increased by 60 percent since the last poll was taken 10 months ago. Israel is not likely to accept a solution like this, afraid of what might happen if Palestinians eventually outnumbered Jews. But that's not the point here.
When I left Israel almost 20 years ago after my first assignment there, lots of people asked me: When will Israel and the Palestinians reach a peace agreement? My answer then: Not in my lifetime.
Now the United States is conducting what it calls "proximity talks." Special envoy George Mitchell is shuttling from Jerusalem to Ramallah and back, carrying messages between Israeli and Palestinian leaders -- the latest iteration of American-sponsored peace talks. Ask that same question about a peace agreement today, and my answer remains the same: Not in my lifetime, but for a different reason this time. Now, it's apparent, no one really wants a peace agreement, except maybe a few officials in Washington.
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If you look at the problem strategically, the "peace process" (by now, truly an oxymoronic phrase) involves four key players: Israel, the Palestinians, the Arab world and the United States. Europe and the United Nations are not significant actors. Why wouldn't Israel want a peace agreement? For one thing, the state is calm and at peace right now. Israel's "security fence," the wall around most of the West Bank, makes it difficult for militants to cross into Israel and attack a bus, a market or a nightclub. For that reason and others, the attacks have virtually ceased. All is quiet; the state is prosperous. People ride buses again and sip cappuccinos at outdoor cafes.
Why risk a peace agreement? After all, when Israel pulled out of Gaza five years ago, look what happened: Hamas seized control and began firing hundreds of missiles at Israel. What is to say that a new Palestinian state would not be the same?
The Arab world has been championing the Palestinian cause for more than 40 years. Even now, Arab leaders talk about little else. Peace would not be good news for Arab dictators.
True, many Palestinians are still quite angry. But it appears many are simply giving up.
Forty years of peace talks, two intifadas, what has it gotten them? Nothing at all.
One-third of them now say they simply want to live with the Israelis. In that random-sample survey of about 1,200 Palestinians, by the Jerusalem Media and Communication Center, fewer than half now say they support a two-state solution, a sharp decline since last year. Just 18.4 percent hold any faith in peace negotiations.
Washington wants peace for its own reasons, primarily because an agreement would remove the angry grudge Arab leaders, and terrorists, throw at every turn.
But then Obama, like his predecessors, would also like to wear that badge: The man who finally settled the Arab-Israeli dispute.
Contact Brinkley at firstname.lastname@example.org.