It was Sept. 22, 1989.

Hurricane Hugo made landfall in South Carolina at The Isle of Palms and proceeded to carve out a destructive path that caused billions in damages and left 27 people dead.

The Grand Strand also suffered the brunt of nature’s fury, as storm surge couple with high tides ravaged beaches, destroyed the Sunset Beach and Springmaid Piers and left the Surfside Beach Pier reduced to 100 feet from 800 feet.

Horry County alone suffered an estimated $944 million in damages, according to the University of South Carolina Hazards and Vulnerability Research.

This is Sept. 22, 2012.

It’s been 23 years since the storm struck the state, which has since rebuilt and grown exponentially making the coastline more vulnerable than it was when Hurricane Hugo came ashore.

“It’s a very vulnerable coastline from Little River down,” said Scott Harris, associate professor of geology and environmental geosciences at the College of Charleston geologist who has researched landscape evolution and shoreline dynamics.

“The only reason we realize there’s a problem is because people live on the coast.”

About 125,238 more people live in Horry County and 13,856 more live in Georgetown County now than they did when Hugo hit, according to U.S. Census data from 1990 and 2010.

“The population was much lower,” Harris said of the Grand Strand in 1989. “Now [if] you look at an aerial photos you cant find property that’s not built on outside of reserves and parks and the religious area in the Briarcliffe Acres area.”

For Horry County’s emergency management division, that could mean a logistical nightmare.

Despite the devastation, largely to the McClellanville area which saw a Category 4 or 5 storm, Harris said the effect of the storm wasn’t as bad as it could have been. Myrtle Beach may have only seen the effects of a strong Category 1 storm, and in Charleston, it could have been between a Category 2 or 3, Harris said.

“Pawleys Island, some of that place was devastated,” Harris said. “And yes, [Charleston] got struck by a large storm but they didn’t get struck by the worst of that large storm.”

That minimized strength is largely because of where the storm came onshore. Had Hugo moved more northward, Georgetown and even Pawleys Island would have had a more direct, devastating hit causing even more damage.

The storm surge in Georgetown went five miles inland where between $50 and $500 million in crops, and between $550 million and $5.5 billion in property were damaged.

Webster said the damage is hard to predict for a similar storm today.

“With Hugo we had 12 feet of [storm] surge in the Garden City area,” he said. “What we really don’t know is what that impact would be in those areas if we had those same storms today. That’s one of the big questions.”

But, the Hazards and Vulnerabilty Research Institute with the University of South Carolina estimated in 2009 that property loss in Georgetown could be as much as $64 million.

In Horry County, which wasn’t directly hit, that number would be slightly less at $43 million.

Horry County, at the start of this hurricane season, updated the evacuation zones and plans. Webster said a study showed the storm surge goes further inland than initially thought meaning places west of the Intracoastal Waterway, like Forestbrook, aren’t as protected as officials once believed.

Webster said the new zones, coupled with the amount of people means planning has to start even earlier.

Harris said an undeveloped coastline is designed to handle storms.

“The beach system responds and heals fairly quickly,” he said. “The coastline may be in a new position, but the shore fixes itself.”

The sand naturally moves offshore into a sandbar during a storm and is washed back onshore in the following months. It’s the buildings and the people, especially in areas that don’t have a large dune system or that are low lying, that causes the increased vulnerability, Harris said.

Tracking hurricanes has improved over the years, but that doesn’t mean predicting storms is any easier.

Statistically, South Carolina is due for another event. Research by Cary Mock, of the University of South Carolina department of geography, shows 11 major hurricanes made landfall in South Carolina over the last 300 years which would be an average of one storm every 27 years.

Realistically, it’s not that simple. Time gaps between major storms hitting South Carolina are all over the board, ranging from two months to 61 years, according to Mock.

“It may not happen in our lifetime,” Harris said. “It may happen next week.”

Even though a major storm hasn’t hit the Grand Strand in a few decades, Webster said he’s confident the residents won’t be blindsided by a storm.

“I worry that they’re complacent, but I do think that people that live in our area do understand that they have that vulnerability,” he said. “I don’t think they turn a blind eye to hurricanes. I think they know that it can happen and make the best choices with the information they get.”

Webster said people seem to be prepared.

“We just don’t want to think about it if we don’t have to,” he said. “But most of the people in Horry County understand and a lot of people are taking the appropriate measures to be ready.”

Contact AMANDA KELLEY at 626-0381.