Iowa results could presage S.C. victor

Iowa hosts the nation’s first Republican presidential nominating contest tonight, goosing one presidential candidate into frontrunner status and sending him — or her — roaring into New Hampshire and then South Carolina.

Similarities between Iowa and South Carolina make tonight’s caucuses a must-watch event for those who will vote in the Palmetto State’s Jan. 21 GOP primary.

First up: Which candidate will evangelicals and social conservative voters support?

As in South Carolina, evangelical voters represent a sizable chunk of the Republican electorate in Iowa.

“In 2008, exit polls measured evangelicals at exactly 60 percent of the turnout in both Iowa and South Carolina for the GOP nomination contests,” said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. “Social issues — like abortion and gay marriage — sell politically to Republicans in both Iowa and South Carolina.”

But the large evangelical vote doesn’t guarantee a win in either state.

Scott Huffmon, a Winthrop University political scientist, points to Mike Huckabee’s 2008 campaign as proof. While the former Arkansas governor won Iowa, he came in second in the S.C. primary, going on to lose the GOP nomination to U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the winner in South Carolina.

Iowa’s results also could indicate how engaged evangelicals are this year, an activism that could carry over to South Carolina.

Recent Iowa polling suggests fewer evangelicals may vote this go-round. About 40 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers self-identify as evangelicals, said Kathie Obradovich, a political columnist with the Des Moines Register in Iowa.

More troubling for GOP candidates counting on evangelical support, “There is no clear frontrunner for evangelicals,” Obradovich said.

Instead, evangelical voters are divided between several candidates — including U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania — meaning their influence will be limited this time.

Iowa’s results also should answer the question of whether retail, door-door politicking — traditionally, important in Iowa and South Carolina — still matters to voters, according to Obradovich.

As with South Carolina, some of the Republican candidates have visited Iowa dozens of times, including Santorum. Meanwhile, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, one of the GOP frontrunners, has been to the state fewer than 10 times.

“We’ll see if retail politics really works or if it matters less than people believe,” Obradovich said.

States differ, too

While the power of evangelical voters and the importance of retail politics make the two states similar, differences between the two states limit Iowa’s usefulness as an indicator for South Carolina.

For example, the economy is a bigger issue in South Carolina than Iowa.

In South Carolina, the struggling economy — and 9.9 percent unemployment rate — is the top issue. However, Iowa’s rebounding manufacturing sector and vibrant agricultural sector — boosted by high corn and soybean prices, and strong agriculture-related industries — have that state’s jobless rate at 5.7 percent.

The number of voters also varies dramatically.

“Iowa is a small-turnout caucus, and South Carolina has a much healthier turnout in its primary,” Sabato said.

In 2008, only 120,000 Republicans caucused in Iowa while more than 445,000 South Carolinians cast a GOP primary ballot.

Iowa and South Carolina also pick candidates differently.

Any S.C. voter can head to the polls on Jan. 21 to cast a vote in the state’s GOP primary. But Iowans must register as Republicans before gathering — at a high school gymnasium, library or even someone’s home — to hear a short speech from campaign surrogates, then vote for their GOP preference.

The two states also have different records in picking the eventual nominee.

Iowa’s record is spotty. For example, former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 while eventual GOP nominee McCain finished fourth. Similarly, GOP also-rans won Iowa in 1980 and 1988.

In South Carolina, meanwhile, the winner of the Republican primary has gone on to win the GOP nomination every year since 1980.