Jobs, real estate prices among top issues to watch in 2012

Brace for another business year in 2012 much like 2011.

Experts predict the economy will be much like it was in 2011 or maybe a tick better this year - with small gains in employment predicted for job-hungry South Carolina. But the economy is still fragile, and the slightest bump from the European debt crisis, an uncertain stock market or the U.S. presidential election could send the economy back into that none-too-pleasant place, economists at the University of South Carolina predict.

“Right now, South Carolina’s economy is stable, and 2012 should bring further incremental gains in job growth and personal income levels. However, uncertainty is still high, and any market change could easily rock the boat,” USC economist Joey Von Nessen said.

“Although we’re on course for another positive year of growth and recovery, the economy is very delicate right now, and any increase in market uncertainty has the potential to knock us off course if it paralyzes businesses and prevents them from investing and hiring,” he said.

Along the Grand Strand, the need for jobs will continue to be a top issue in 2012, as will the still falling prices of homes and condos that has left homeowners in the hole but opened doors for buyers able to take advantage of the prices and record low interest rates.

Beach businesses wonder whether vacationers will return in greater numbers without a major new attraction on tap to debut in 2012, while growth at Myrtle Beach International Airport could produce another record-breaking year in the number of passengers.

Here are a few issues you should keep an eye on in 2012:

Bring on the jobs

More Horry County residents should be back to work in the coming year, but unemployment rates are likely to remain high.

Jobs are the most important factor in South Carolina’s economic recovery, according to University of South Carolina economists who predicted that more workers will find jobs in 2012.

Manufacturing led the way in job creation in 2011, and will continue to be a contender in 2012. Jobseekers are likely to have the most luck finding work in business and professional services, health care and education, sectors that are expected to add jobs this year, USC economists predicted.

Still, the jobless rate is likely to remain high because those who had given up looking for jobs are likely to start looking again, putting them back in the mix, the economists predicted.

In Horry County, the Myrtle Beach Regional Economic Development Corp. aims to bring in hundreds of jobs in 2012 – with three companies already committed to the area but working through paperwork and final approvals, said Brad Lofton, the CEO of the EDC. The corporation is also working with about 20 other companies, of various types and sizes, that have expressed interest in Horry County, he said.

The EDC has a full staff for the first time in years and a bigger-than-ever budget, with the county earmarking $2.1 million for economic development. Its first major jobs announcement came last week, with aviation company AvCraft planning to add 150 jobs to its Horry County operation.

“[The AvCraft announcement] is going to kick start us in the new year, and with more projects in the pipeline it’s going to be a historic year for us,” Lofton said.

The first phase of the International Technology and Aerospace Park, a planned business park near the Myrtle Beach International Airport that will target aeronautics and technology-related companies, will be complete in early 2012. The EDC will work to find companies to move to the site, including through a developer day, where they will host several top aviation-related consultants to show them what the area has to offer, Lofton said.

By midyear, a new product development plan, which will outline what land the EDC will buy and what projects it will build, will be complete, paving the way to start on new projects, he said.

The EDC also plans to build a ready-to-go call center to lure one of its targeted industries, probably in partnership with national call center developer Adevco Inc. The building will require several funding partners but should be complete by the end of the year, Lofton said.

Real estate: Prices still low

Foreclosures will continue to dictate the path the Grand Strand real estate market takes in 2012, which isn’t likely to lead to significant gains in prices.

Tom Maeser, a real estate analyst with the Coastal Carolinas Association of Realtors, said that while he usually tries to be optimistic, he’s not sure he can be about what 2012 will bring, though he finds it hard to imagine prices dropping much lower.

“It’s all going to be based on the inventory of foreclosures out there competing with the normal market,” he said. “If the inventory clears out and less and less comes on to cause average single-family home and condos to go down in price, our market would stabilize and we would start seeing some prices stabilize. Not until we have that are we going to have a recovery.”

The speed that foreclosures make it to the market and the ability to get financing will dictate when and how quickly prices stabilize and improve, said Scott Ellis, the broker associate of Re/Max Southern Shores and the president of the Coastal Carolinas Association of Realtors.

“I do not foresee the prices going up in the near future, until we liquidate the abundance of foreclosure properties,” he said.

Still, prices have likely bottomed out and aren’t likely to take another big dip, Ellis said.

The year ahead will provide buyers with some good deals - combined with record low interest rates - but homeowners thinking of selling but don’t have to should wait out this next year if they can, he said.

Tourism: Beach business expected to tick up slightly

Myrtle Beach won’t be able to boast several brand-new, multi-million dollar attractions to help lure tourists in 2012 as in 2011, but tourism promoters say this summer should be as good – if not slightly better – than last.

The SkyWheel, WonderWorks science museum and Pirates Voyage live theater show – all of which debuted in 2011 – should still pull visitors to the area, helping contribute to slight gains in lodging occupancy this summer, officials said.

“We’ll continue to expect gains from those for several years to come,” said Taylor Damonte of Coastal Carolina University’s Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism.

Many factors play into whether folks take vacations, including jobless rates and consumer confidence, making it tricky to predict this far out, he said. Damonte expects much of the same in 2012 as in 2011, with slight gains – maybe 2 percent to 3 percent – in lodging occupancy with rates ticking up slowly trying to return to peak prices in 2008.

“We are still trying to claw back,” Damonte said.

Visitors will find some new nuggets at the beach in 2012, including ziplines along Ocean Boulevard and a renovated Peaches Corner, also along the Boulevard.

And they may find new life at the former Freestyle Music Park if the owners can find a new buyer or operator who can get the park ready to open in time for the summer, which has been the plan since the owners took back the property from foreclosure auction in August.

“All indications that I’ve seen….it’s going to be another good year,” said Nora Hembree, spokeswoman of the Myrtle Beach Area Chamber of Commerce.

Tourism promoters, who have focused on luring first-time visitors to the Grand Strand in recent years, plan to again pursue that goal while enticing those first-timers to come back, Hembree said.

“The welcomed challenge that lies before us is convincing all those first-time visitors we had in 2010 and 2011 to return again in 2012 by continuing to both market and provide a value-oriented positive experience,” she said via e-mail. “So in essence, in 2012 we want to make all those first time 2010/2011 visitors lifetime visitors to the Grand Strand.”

Airport: More passengers, ongoing construction

Significant growth will continue at Myrtle Beach International Airport, with more passengers and flights expected.

After two years of record numbers of passengers, the airport expects to continue that trend with another record-setting year in 2012 with 5 percent to 10 percent growth, airport director Mike LaPier said.

Passengers will see more flights to destinations including LaGuardia, and should see flights to new places, though LaPier declined to give specifics last week, saying an announcement of new service will be coming soon.

The airport is dangling promises of a free ride for a few years for carriers that bring service five times a week to desired destinations of Indianapolis, Minneapolis or Dallas, as well as discounts on fees to a carrier who flies five times a week to Philadelphia, which already has limited connection to Myrtle Beach. Airlines that fly to Indianapolis, Minneapolis or Dallas would not have to pay the usual fees to the airport for a year or two.

In addition to new flights, passengers will have to continue to maneuver around construction of the new terminal, which will grow the airport from seven gates to 13 gates. Passengers should expect shifts in parking throughout 2012.

The new terminal is on track to open in January 2013.

“We will be busy hanging drapes at this time next year,” LaPier said.

Harrelson Boulevard: A road that opens opportunities

Drivers will start 2012 with the opening of the Harrelson Boulevard extension that will provide a more convenient east-west connection and potentially give some businesses a boost.

The 1.54-mile extension, from S.C. 15 at the former entrance to the Myrtle Beach International Airport to Kings Highway, will make it easier for beach-bound drivers to reach Kings Highway, opening up new possibilities for the airport, the city-owned Whispering Pines Golf Course and other businesses in the area to catch drive-by traffic. The four-lane road - which cost about $6.5 million and will include sidewalks, decorative street lights and a bike path – is scheduled to open Jan. 26.

“It will get a lot of use,” Myrtle Beach spokesman Mark Kruea said. “We’ve needed that east-west connection for a long time. People will find out that Harrelson is a good way to get around town.”

Businesses in the area also are eager for the opening, anticipating a boost with the additional traffic, and for some, more visibility from passersby.

“The impact is huge, just on visibility and accessibility alone,” LaPier said. “We are not going to be tucked in the back anymore. We are going to be right front and center in the community.”