Coast likely to gain seat

WASHINGTON -- Rep.-elect Tim Scott hasn't even taken office, yet the North Charleston Republican knows that he's already a marked man.

It's not his political foes who are targeting him.

Scott stands in the path of a demographic tidal wave that likely will engulf him in the coming months.

Thanks to rapid population growth in four counties in his 1st Congressional District - Dorchester, Horry, Berkeley and Charleston - an expected new U.S. House seat for South Carolina as a result of the 2010 Census could come largely at Scott's expense.

"The most likely scenario is that I will be a new congressman [after redistricting] once again for nearly a third of my district," Scott said on Saturday.

An analysis by McClatchy matches Scott's own: A redrawn congressional map would likely remove from his district Horry County - a fast-growing area where he drew more than two-thirds of the vote last month.

"These are the citizens who've given me the most incredible opportunity I could have dreamed of," Scott said. "To pick [the district] apart immediately after being elected, that's tough. I like serving people. To have people who've said 'yes' to me serving them taken out of my hands is difficult."

Scott, though, would welcome the change because a seventh U.S. House district would likely tilt Republican - and thus could produce a new GOP congressman.

That might pit Scott's conservative ideological interests against his personal and political needs: A more Republican congressional delegation vs. a weaker district for himself.

"To stand in the way of strengthening our philosophical hold on this state would be selfish," said Scott, who will replace the retiring Rep. Henry Brown. "It might serve me well, but it would not serve our state well."

The U.S. Census Bureau is expected to announce Tuesday that South Carolina is among eight states - based in the Sun Belt and out West - that will gain a congressional seat thanks to their population growth since 2000.

If that happens, it will likely be a year before the General Assembly and Gov.-elect Nikki Haley determine the contours of the seventh House district in a redrawn political map that will change every congressional district.

House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, who will be the state delegation's only Democrat in the new session of Congress that starts next month, agrees that a seventh U.S. House seat would likely be a Republican one based along the coast.

"Since the population gains are most prevalent on the coast and the General Assembly is heavily Republican, I fully expect the additional seat to be a coastal district that leans Republican," Clyburn said.

"I am hopeful we can get redistricting done expeditiously and will be glad to be of whatever assistance I can," he said.

If the national changes in congressional representation match projections, it will be a boon for the Republican Party.

The eight states expected to gain U.S. House seats are mainly Republican, with GOP lawmakers currently holding a 44-24 edge over Democrats.

The nine states predicted to lose congressional seats are predominantly Democratic, with the party's now enjoying a 45-28 advantage over Republican representatives.

South Carolina has had six U.S. House representatives since 1930, when a population decline the previous decade cost it the seventh seat the state had held before then.

Whether or not South Carolina gains a congressional seat, the statewide map will have to be changed to reflect population shifts over the last decade.

When a seat is added, a difficult task becomes vexing: U.S. House members can make their desires and views known to state legislators, but the ultimate power lies in the General Assembly -- and with Haley, who can accept or veto the plan that eventually emerges.

"The governor-elect believes who we send to represent us in Columbia and Washington is critically important," said Rob Godfrey, a Haley spokesman. "She'll be paying very close attention as the redistricting process moves through the General Assembly."

Redrawing the congressional map is even more complicated in South Carolina than in most other states. Having experienced past racial discrimination at the polls, it is subject to provisions of the Voting Rights Act, so the U.S. Justice Department must approve newly crafted districts.

"At the end of the day, drawing lines is a very brutal process," said Katon Dawson, former head of the state Republican Party. "And there are laws. You can't just pull a crayon out and do what you want to do. It's a thankless job."