Hurricane Earl begins move to the north, little impact expected for Myrtle Beach area

Hurricane Earl continued on the forecast path to brush by the Carolina coastline today, according to an 8 p.m. update from the National Weather Service.

National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read said the storm was turning to the north and its speed had not changed from previous forecasts.

"We're pretty much right down the track we've been anticipating for the last two days," Read said.

Hurricane Earl was expected to impact the Grand Strand area with little rain, no storm surge and minor winds as it passes by the area overnight, but weather forecasters did warn about strong surf and an increased risk for rip currents.

“No concern for rivers, no concern for rains minimal impact as far as winds,” said Mike Caropolo, the meteorologist-in-charge with the National Weather Service in Wilmington, N.C. “Large breakers in the surf are likely. Breakers will be 8 to 12 feet south to the Santee River.”

The storm was expected to gradually weaken today, but strong surf with an increased risk for rip currents will remain, Caropolo said.

“If we get a tenth of an inch [of rain] I would be surprised,” Caropolo said. “The higher winds will stay off the coast. The closes approach of Earl will be 160 miles east of Cape Fear between 7 and 9 p.m.”

The storm was showing signs it was going through an eye wall replacement, which means it creates a larger wind-field, Read said.

The latest forecast had tropical storm force winds extending out about 200 miles from the center or eye of the storm and hurricane force winds out 90 miles from the center.

"Sometime in the overnight to early [Friday] morning hours the center of it should be just to the east or on Cape Hatteras,” Read said. "Hurricane force winds [are expected] onto the barrier islands of North Carolina.”

Hurricane hunters will be monitoring the storm throughout its life cycle.

Residents in the Carolinas should have their plans and supplies in place, said Federal Emergency Management Administrator Craig Fugate.

"This is a day of action people need to be rapidly completing their action through the Carolina coast,” Fugate said. "Implement your plans and be ready to heed any evacuation orders as this storm continues to track to the north.”

Federal resources were moved into staging basis to support response along the East Coast, he said.

At 9:50 p.m. the storm was about 260 miles east northeast of Myrtle Beach, according to forecasters with the National Weather Service in Wilmington, N.C.

High surf and rip current advisories were issued until midnight because waves were expected to be 8 to 12 feet today as the storm passes, said Reid Hawkins with the weather service. Surge was forecast to be about 2 feet because the storm is passing near low tide, which is expected to limit any coastal flooding.

"We’re very lucky we’re getting that. We’re still thinking some minor over wash in the low lying areas and some coastal erosion from the breakers we’ll be getting,” Hawkins said.

In Ocean Isle Beach, N.C., there was low tide at the same time the seas peaked, which should help create less of an impact, said Rachel Zouzias, a meteorologist with the weather service. She said there may be minor beach erosion, but as of 9:50 p.m., they received no reports.

The storm was forecast to be 160 miles off the coast of Wilmington, N.C. between 8 and 10 p.m. today.

As vacationers and residents crowded ferries and roads to escape North Carolina's Outer Banks on Wednesday, Grand Strand emergency officials were viewing Hurricane Earl's arrival today as a good way to test their procedures.

Earl will remain a powerful storm, but its impact on Georgetown and Horry counties and Brunswick County, N.C., won't be severe, said Reid Hawkins, the science and operations officer for the weather service.

"It's still scheduled to be a major hurricane as it passes off the coast," Hawkins said.

In anticipation, tourists vacationing on North Carolina's Outer Banks were shooed to safety Wednesday, the boats tied down, the windows covered and the deck furniture stowed in the shed as vacationers cut short their summers just before the Labor Day weekend.

The governors of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland declared states of emergency, and sea turtle nests on Kure Beach were scooped up and moved to safety.

Teams of rescuers, National Guard members and electrical repair crews were standing by in North Carolina.

Pallets of water, food and power generators were stashed as coastal residents more than 60 miles north of Brunswick County wait for Hurricane Earl to do his worst. That's expected to happen overnight tonight.

"It's been a long couple of days, to be honest with you," said Tommy Hutcherson, who remained on Ocracoke Island on Wednesday to run the Variety Store despite a mandatory evacuation order. "It'll be nice when we get hunkered down and go ahead and see what's going to happen, and get it over with."

Earl was a Category 4 storm on Wednesday, with top sustained winds of 135 mph. Through the night, Earl is expected to cruise past, 80 to 120 miles offshore - close enough to whip the Outer Banks with 70- to 80-mph winds and send a 1-foot to 2-foot storm surge along the oceanfront. The worst risk of overwash on the Outer Banks will be at high tide, around 3 a.m.

If the storm turns slightly west, with the eye coming closer to or even hitting land, conditions could get markedly worse.

On the Grand Strand, officials are monitoring the storm and using it to test their plans and equipment for when the next storm does threaten to make landfall or severely impact the coast.

"We are more or less handling this as a dry run by our area departments," said Jan Lewis, emergency manager for Surfside Beach. "We want to ensure town departments are ready and able to handle what is going to be a very busy season. ... I think this was well-timed for our use, but certainly those people far north in North Carolina do not feel the same."

Rainfall will likely be about a quarter of an inch for Brunswick County and less south of the area, Hawkins said. The area will remain under a tropical storm warning until Earl has passed by the coast.

Wind gusts are expected to be up to 40 mph and increase near the coastal waters of the Cape Fear area, he said.

But the storm is passing the coast during low tide, which helps reduce the impact of coastal flooding, said Mike Caropolo, the weather service's meteorologist-in-charge in Wilmington, N.C.

"The tides are going to be low, so it's coming at the right time, and we're not expecting any coastal flooding at this time," Caropolo said. "Earl is still forecast to remain a major hurricane as it moves along the South Carolina coast and up toward Hatteras."

Debbie Smith, mayor of Ocean Isle Beach, N.C., said she believes the island's erosion-battered east end will be fine if Hurricane Earl stays a couple of hundred miles offshore, as has been predicted. She said the town measured 85 feet of beachfront between the dunes and the waves after a renourishment that included the east end last winter. She said there's likely been some erosion since then, but it hasn't been significant.

"There's still good width down there," she said.

Scott Garner, deputy director of Brunswick County Emergency Services, said the county has set up its emergency operations center and is on a watch-and-wait basis for the storm. The center hasn't been officially opened yet, he said.

With forecasts this morning, Garner said the county is expecting 1 inch or less of rain. At most, he said officials are expecting there could be minimal beach erosion and coastal flooding.

Federal supplies and aid along with local Red Cross vehicles and personnel are being pre-positioned in North Carolina to assist with the aftermath of the storm. Two emergency response vehicles left Myrtle Beach Wednesday morning from the Coastal South Carolina chapter.

"A lot of this planning is based on what if," said Craig Fugate, the Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator.

The Associated Press and McClatchy Newspapers contributed to this report.