Oil spill estimate could save BP millions in court

WASHINGTON -- BP's estimate that only 5,000 barrels of oil are leaking daily from a well in the Gulf of Mexico, which the Obama administration hasn't disputed, could save the company millions of dollars in damages when the financial impact of the spill is resolved in court, legal experts say.

A month ago, a surge of gas from the undersea well engulfed the Deepwater Horizon offshore rig in flames, killed 11 and triggered the leak that threatens sea life and the livelihoods of thousands. But neither BP nor the federal government has tried to measure the amount of crude pouring into the water.

BP and the Obama administration have claimed they don't want to take the measurements for fear of interfering with efforts to stop the leaks.

That decision, however, runs counter to BP's own regional plan for dealing with offshore leaks. "In the event of a significant release of oil," the 583-page plan says on Page 2, "an accurate estimation of the spill's total volume ... is essential in providing preliminary data to plan and initiate cleanup operations."

Legal experts said that not having a credible official estimate of the leak's size provides another benefit for BP: The amount of oil spilled is certain to be key evidence in the court battles that are likely to result from the disaster. The size of the Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska, for example, was a significant factor that the jury considered when it assessed damages against Exxon.

"If they put off measuring, then it's going to be a battle of dueling experts after the fact trying to extrapolate how much spilled after it has all sunk or has been carried away," said Lloyd Benton Miller, one of the lead plaintiffs' lawyers in the Exxon Valdez spill litigation. "The ability to measure how much oil was released will be impossible."

"It's always a bottom-line issue," said Marilyn Heiman, a former Clinton administration Interior Department official who now heads the Arctic Program for the Pew Environment Group. "Any company wouldn't have an interest in having this kind of measurement if they can help it."

S.C. coast a victim?

Meanwhile, chances are remote that oil from a leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico could make it to the beaches of the Carolinas and it would likely be weeks from now if it did, emergency officials said Thursday.

"We think there will be a minimal impact, if any," said Ricky Platt, director of the S.C. Emergency Management Division. "But having said that, we're still in the unknown."

The worry is that the loop current in Gulf of Mexico will pull the leaking oil around the Florida peninsula and then north toward the Carolinas.

"What we're hearing from the Coast Guard is that there is less than a 1 percent chance it could get this far," said Eddie Seneca, the spokesman for the N.C. Department of Crime Control and Public Safety.

On Wednesday, Clinch Heyward and Ben Gregg, chairman and executive director respectively of the S.C. Wildlife Federation, wrote the Coast Guard and the state Department of Health and Environmental Control asking about contingency plans if oil does tar the shoreline.

"No one can say with any certainty if this will happen or what the potential impacts on our region might be," the letter said. "But since as of this date the oil continues to flow into the Gulf, and we are told it may be several months before it is shut off, the possibility of its getting to our shores is becoming more and more likely."

Both states have plans in place to deal with oil spills and officials in each state are in daily contact with their counterparts in the Gulf.

Obama can't scare BP

The size of the spill has become a high stakes political controversy that's put the Obama administration and the oil company on the defensive. In congressional testimony Wednesday, an engineering professor from Purdue University in West Lafayette, Ind., said that based on videos released Tuesday he estimated that the well was spewing at 95,000 barrels of oil, or 4 million gallons a day into the gulf.

The Obama administration Thursday demanded that BP publicly release all information related to the disaster.

BP officials had pledged in congressional testimony to keep the public and government officials informed, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa Jackson said in a letter to BP chief executive officer Tony Hayward.

"Those efforts, to date, have fallen short in both their scope and effectiveness," they wrote.

That letter came after members of Congress made similar demands of BP, leading to the release Tuesday of the new videos. One showed oil still billowing from one underwater pipe, despite an insertion tube BP now says is capturing 5,000 barrels of crude a day - its entire initial estimate of the spill. The other showed a previously unseen leak spewing clouds of crude from just above the well's dysfunctional blowout preventer.

The EPA on Thursday ordered BP to switch to a less toxic version of the chemical mix it's using to disperse the oil. The EPA also for the first time posted on its website BP's test data of the dispersant's use in deep water. Those orders came days after McClatchy reported doubts about the dispersant's safety and members of Congress made a similar demand.

Scientists and environmentalists praised the government for demanding that more information be made public.

"This is exactly the role the government needs to be playing - they need to be overseeing BP's actions to assure that health and natural resources are protected, as much as possible, and that information is available to the public," said Gina Solomon, a senior scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.