Horizon 2010: Job market to hit plateau in Myrtle Beach area (with video)

The jobs outlook for 2010 is bleak, as double-digit unemployment rates will persist despite improvement in some other areas of the economy, experts said.

"I'm not very optimistic in general," said Don Schunk, a research economist at Coastal Carolina University. "The average business is still going to be struggling this year, and if that's the case, they're not going to be willing to hire workers. Even if we have a slight improvement in visitor spending, that's not going to translate into job growth this year."

Employment is typically a lagging indicator after a recession, and this time around will be no different, he said.

Schunk predicts that the unemployment rate in Horry County will peak between 13 percent and 14 percent in the early spring and slowly decrease to between 12.5 percent and 13 percent for the remainder of the year.

In Georgetown County, the number of jobless residents will spike to 15 percent in the summer and finish the year near 13 percent, he said. The county took a hit with the closure of the ArcelorMittal steel mill in 2009.

Between 600 and 700 people look for help at the Coastal Workforce Center each day, with about 1,300 people coming through the doors on busy days, assistant area director Sheila Daniels said.

"I think a lot of people might go back to work, but I think [traffic in the office is] going to be higher than it has been in years past," she said.

The Myrtle Beach Workforce Center, which opened in February 2009, helps between 200 and 300 residents in their job search each day, said job developer Rashad Midani.

Cindy Lowrimore said it's been a struggle for her family since her husband was laid off in early 2008 and she was laid off from her receptionist job in October 2008.

"We've had a lot of cutbacks - the grocery bills, trying to cut back on electric bills and entertainment," she said. "If we do go out, it's for the dollar menu."

She has enrolled in classes at Horry-Georgetown Technical College to study phlebotomy, and her husband is studying culinary arts.

"We figure that everybody has to eat and everybody needs medical, so those are two things we should find work in because there aren't jobs in anything else," she said.

A new Zaxby's restaurant will likely come to the area in the next several months, which could bring 15 to 20 jobs, and the Wyndham Vacation Resort and the Grand Strand Regional Medical Center are also hiring, Midani said.

Outside of the Wal-Mart that is scheduled to open later this year in Garden City Beach, and seasonal hiring of a few hundred extra workers at the area's five other Wal-Mart locations, there are no other major hirings so far this year, Daniels said.

"I just have a feeling it's going to be a little bit slower this year," she said. "They're just scared to do a lot of hiring until they kind of see what kind of crowd they have in the summer."

The local health care industry has grown each year, so that is one bright spot in the dim job outlook, Schunk said.

During the past 10 to 15 years, construction, banking, housing, finance and local government jobs drove employment growth, but this year and beyond, there's not going to be much job creation in these fields, he said.

Some of the top industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth between now and 2018 include consulting, computer systems, retail sales, employment services, local government, health care, nursing care and full-service restaurants, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Health care is hiring the most along the Grand Strand, though most fields will be hiring at least a few workers, Schunk said.

"Every industry will be hiring people, so if you have the right skills and the right experience, you stand a chance," he said. "People shouldn't give up and lose hope on finding a job, but they need to make sure they're doing everything they can to make themselves marketable."

In December, the unemployment offices began taking claims for individuals who are unemployed and may be eligible for two additional levels of federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation, but there are no other changes in sight for jobless benefits.

The Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of the legislation allows residents who have exhausted all rights to previous extended benefits to apply for between six and 13 more weeks of unemployment benefits.

"I think that people are starting to realize that they're coming to the end of their unemployment and they're really starting to worry," Daniels said.

Conway resident Kenneth Martin has been unemployed for more than a year since a local custom home building company he worked for ran out of work when the real estate market began to crumble.

He and his wife, who was laid off about six months ago from her job at a Laundromat, are both drawing unemployment.

"I stay at home a lot more. We usually don't have the money to do the stuff we used to do," Martin said. "We just learn to do stuff at home and get by."

Despite Martin's 30 years of experience in construction, he said his job search has hit many dead ends.

"Everywhere you go, they aren't hiring," he said. "I've never been without a job. It's disturbing."

Many people who drop into the Myrtle Beach Workforce Center have been unemployed for months and are shaken and upset, Midani said.

"We all just try to comfort them and I think we get 'em leaving with a smile," he said. "It's a battle, and we want to win."

Lowrimore said it's a discouraging experience, but she hopes for the best.

"I'm thinking positive. I'm going to keep my head up and stay positive and hope that things turn around," she said.

Schunk said he expects 2010 will be the year for some aspects of the local economy, such as retail sales, tourism and consumer spending, to improve, but not everything.

"It will be 2011 before we say the same thing about employment and unemployment," he said.